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Horse Racing BETSiE Predicts the Championship: Updated February 26th 2024
Leicester remain at short odds to finish top of the Championship this season, despite their 3-1 loss at Leeds on Friday night. Leicester are at 73.4% to top the division and 93.2% to earn automatic promotion with a top 2 finish. Leeds are at 18.6% to win the division and 65.6% to earn an automatic promotion, while Ipswich is at 33.2% to complete a top 2 finish. The battle for the remaining place in the playoffs continues with Hull favoured at 58.1% over both Norwich and Coventry. While Rotherham is all but relegated, Sheffield Wednesday is favoured over Stoke, QPR, Blackburn, Milwall and Huddersfield to join them.
In this article:
- BETSiE Best Bets
- Projected Championship Table
- Championship Season Probabilities
- Match Expected Goals
- Match 1X2 Probabilities
- Asian Handicaps
- Goals Totals
- Both Teams To Score
- What is BETSiE?
BETSiE Best Bets
| SELECTION | ODDS | BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|---|
| Hull +0 (AH) at Preston | 1.95 | bet365 |
| Swansea +0 (AH) vs Blackburn | 1.81 | William Hill |
| Bristol City vs Cardiff Under 2.25 goals | 1.85 | bet365 |
| Huddersfield vs Leeds Under 2.75 goals | 1.86 | Pinnacle |
| Preston vs Hull Under 2.5 goals | 1.81 | Pinnacle |
Odds correct as at 10am 26th February 2024. Odds may now differ.
BETSiE’S BEST BETS – ALL LEAGUES
- England Premier League BETSiE Projections
- England League One BETSiE Projections
- England League Two BETSiE Projection
- German Bundesliga BETSiE Projections
- Netherlands Eredivisie BETSiE Projections
- Spain La Liga BETSiE Projecitons
- Italy Serie A BETSiE Projections
- France Ligue Un BETSiE Projections
| LEAGUE | DATE | SELECTION | ODDS | BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Championship | March 2 | Hull +0 (AH) at Preston | 1.95 | bet365 |
| Championship | March 2 | Swansea +0 (AH) vs Blackburn | 1.81 | William Hill |
| Championship | March 2 | Bristol City vs Cardiff Under 2.25 goals | 1.85 | bet365 |
| Championship | March 2 | Huddersfield vs Leeds Under 2.75 goals | 1.86 | Pinnacle |
| Championship | March 2 | Preston vs Hull Under 2.5 goals | 1.81 | Pinnacle |
| Premier League | March 2 | Brentford +0.25 (AH) vs Chelsea | 2.01 | bet365 |
| Premier League | March 2 | Everton -0.5 (AH) vs West Ham | 2.04 | Pinnacle |
| Premier League | March 2 | Nottingham Forest +1 (AH) vs Liverpool | 2.04 | Pinnacle |
| Premier League | March 2 | Newcastle vs Wolverhampton Over 3 goals | 2.01 | bet365 |
| League One | March 2 | Cambridge +1 (AH) at Bolton | 1.83 | William Hill |
| League One | March 2 | Port Vale +1 (AH) at Derby | 2.06 | Pinnacle |
| League One | March 2 | Fleetwood +0 (AH) vs Wigan | 1.83 | bet365 |
| League One | March 2 | Shrewsbury +0.5 (AH) vs Blackpool | 1.95 | Pinnacle |
| League Two | March 2 | Accrington +1 (AH) at Wrexham | 1.95 | Pinnacle |
| Serie A | March 3 | Juventus +0.25 (AH) at Napoli | 1.85 | Pinnacle |
Championship odds as at 10am 26th February 2024. Odds may now differ
Premier League odds correct as at 10am 207h February 2024. Odds may now differ
League One, League Two odds correct as at 10am 28th February 2024. Odds may now differ.
Serie A odds correct as at 10am 29th February 2024. Odds may now differ.
Projected Championship Table
Updated: 26th February 2024
| Position | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leicester | 46 | 31.8 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 91.8 | 40.7 | 51.2 | 101.0 |
| 2 | Leeds | 46 | 29.0 | 8.9 | 8.0 | 83.5 | 35.6 | 47.9 | 96.0 |
| 3 | Ipswich | 46 | 27.3 | 12.0 | 6.7 | 86.9 | 56.1 | 30.8 | 93.9 |
| 4 | Southampton | 46 | 26.5 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 85.9 | 54.3 | 31.7 | 89.2 |
| 5 | West Brom | 46 | 21.8 | 11.5 | 12.8 | 64.2 | 41.2 | 23.0 | 76.8 |
| 6 | Hull | 46 | 20.9 | 10.4 | 14.6 | 64.2 | 54.6 | 9.6 | 73.3 |
| 7 | Norwich | 46 | 19.9 | 10.0 | 16.2 | 76.2 | 66.7 | 9.5 | 69.6 |
| 8 | Coventry | 46 | 17.9 | 15.1 | 13.0 | 67.0 | 54.1 | 12.9 | 68.8 |
| 9 | Preston | 46 | 18.2 | 10.2 | 17.5 | 58.3 | 68.3 | -10.0 | 65.0 |
| 10 | Sunderland | 46 | 18.6 | 8.2 | 19.1 | 60.6 | 52.6 | 7.9 | 64.1 |
| 11 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 18.1 | 8.3 | 19.7 | 64.6 | 65.7 | -1.1 | 62.5 |
| 12 | Bristol City | 46 | 16.4 | 11.5 | 18.1 | 51.8 | 51.1 | 0.7 | 60.8 |
| 13 | Watford | 46 | 14.5 | 14.0 | 17.5 | 63.4 | 64.9 | -1.5 | 57.5 |
| 14 | Swansea | 46 | 14.6 | 12.0 | 19.4 | 59.5 | 71.1 | -11.7 | 55.8 |
| 15 | Cardiff | 46 | 15.1 | 8.2 | 22.7 | 47.2 | 65.6 | -18.4 | 53.6 |
| 16 | Plymouth | 46 | 13.5 | 13.0 | 19.5 | 66.6 | 75.2 | -8.6 | 53.5 |
| 17 | Birmingham | 46 | 14.0 | 11.3 | 20.6 | 52.5 | 69.3 | -16.8 | 53.4 |
| 18 | Huddersfield | 46 | 11.7 | 16.7 | 17.6 | 50.7 | 67.5 | -16.8 | 51.8 |
| 19 | Millwall | 46 | 13.0 | 12.2 | 20.8 | 46.4 | 62.2 | -15.8 | 51.2 |
| 20 | Blackburn | 46 | 13.9 | 8.7 | 23.4 | 61.2 | 81.8 | -20.6 | 50.4 |
| 21 | QPR | 46 | 12.5 | 11.7 | 21.8 | 42.2 | 57.7 | -15.5 | 49.2 |
| 22 | Stoke | 46 | 12.5 | 11.3 | 22.2 | 42.7 | 63.6 | -20.9 | 48.7 |
| 23 | Sheffield Wednesday | 46 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 24.6 | 41.5 | 67.4 | -25.9 | 47.7 |
| 24 | Rotherham | 46 | 6.0 | 13.3 | 26.7 | 40.2 | 82.1 | -41.9 | 31.2 |
Championship Season Probabilities
| Club | Win League | Top 2 Finish | Playoffs | Top 6 Finish | Top Half Finish | Bottom Half Finish | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester | 73.4% | 93.2% | 6.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leeds | 18.6% | 65.6% | 34.4% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ipswich | 6.9% | 33.2% | 66.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Southampton | 1.0% | 8.0% | 91.9% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| West Brom | 0.0% | 0.0% | 87.6% | 87.6% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hull | 0.0% | 0.0% | 58.1% | 58.1% | 99.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Norwich | 0.0% | 0.0% | 24.3% | 24.3% | 98.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Coventry | 0.0% | 0.0% | 20.6% | 20.6% | 98.7% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Preston | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 89.4% | 10.6% | 0.0% |
| Sunderland | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 88.4% | 11.6% | 0.0% |
| Middlesbrough | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 75.2% | 24.8% | 0.0% |
| Bristol City | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 64.8% | 35.2% | 0.0% |
| Watford | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 33.2% | 66.8% | 0.4% |
| Swansea | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 18.8% | 81.2% | 3.2% |
| Cardiff | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.4% | 93.6% | 5.1% |
| Plymouth | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.7% | 91.3% | 6.9% |
| Birmingham | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.5% | 92.5% | 9.0% |
| Huddersfield | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.4% | 96.6% | 13.9% |
| Millwall | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0% | 97.0% | 17.3% |
| Blackburn | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.7% | 98.3% | 24.2% |
| QPR | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 99.0% | 30.3% |
| Stoke | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 99.3% | 38.8% |
| Sheffield Wednesday | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 99.6% | 50.6% |
| Rotherham | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Upcoming matches March 1st, 2nd
Match Expected Goals
| Home | Away | Home | Away | Margin | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | Southampton | 0.98 | 1.85 | -0.87 | 2.83 |
| Bristol City | Cardiff | 1.36 | 0.53 | 0.84 | 1.89 |
| Huddersfield | Leeds | 0.6 | 1.35 | -0.75 | 1.96 |
| Leicester | QPR | 1.64 | 0.64 | 1 | 2.29 |
| Millwall | Watford | 1.33 | 1.12 | 0.21 | 2.45 |
| Norwich | Sunderland | 1.38 | 1.23 | 0.14 | 2.61 |
| Plymouth | Ipswich | 1.01 | 1.8 | -0.79 | 2.81 |
| Preston | Hull | 0.83 | 1.18 | -0.35 | 2.02 |
| Rotherham | Sheffield Wednesday | 0.87 | 1.19 | -0.32 | 2.06 |
| Stoke | Middlesbrough | 1.18 | 1.25 | -0.06 | 2.43 |
| Swansea | Blackburn | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.61 | 3.2 |
| West Brom | Coventry | 1.42 | 0.86 | 0.56 | 2.28 |
Match 1X2 Probabilities
| Home | Away | Home % | Draw % | Away % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | Southampton | 19.71% | 22.57% | 57.72% |
| Bristol City | Cardiff | 57.58% | 28.10% | 14.32% |
| Huddersfield | Leeds | 16.63% | 28.26% | 55.11% |
| Leicester | QPR | 61.57% | 24.11% | 14.32% |
| Millwall | Watford | 41.44% | 27.14% | 31.42% |
| Norwich | Sunderland | 40.21% | 26.26% | 33.53% |
| Plymouth | Ipswich | 21.05% | 23.06% | 55.89% |
| Preston | Hull | 25.92% | 30.04% | 44.03% |
| Rotherham | Sheffield Wednesday | 26.84% | 29.78% | 43.38% |
| Stoke | Middlesbrough | 34.74% | 27.46% | 37.80% |
| Swansea | Blackburn | 51.58% | 22.33% | 26.08% |
| West Brom | Coventry | 50.07% | 27.11% | 22.82% |
Asian Handicaps
| Home | Away | Home AH | Away AH | Home AH % | Away AH % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | Southampton | 0.75 | -0.75 | 49.07% | 50.93% |
| Bristol City | Cardiff | -0.5 | 0.5 | 57.58% | 42.42% |
| Huddersfield | Leeds | 1 | -1 | 62.40% | 37.60% |
| Leicester | QPR | -1.25 | 1.25 | 40.78% | 59.22% |
| Millwall | Watford | 0 | 0 | 56.88% | 43.12% |
| Norwich | Sunderland | -0.5 | 0.5 | 40.21% | 59.79% |
| Plymouth | Ipswich | 0.75 | -0.75 | 51.14% | 48.86% |
| Preston | Hull | 0 | 0 | 37.06% | 62.94% |
| Rotherham | Sheffield Wednesday | 0.25 | -0.25 | 47.42% | 52.58% |
| Stoke | Middlesbrough | 0 | 0 | 47.89% | 52.11% |
| Swansea | Blackburn | 0 | 0 | 66.42% | 33.58% |
| West Brom | Coventry | -0.25 | 0.25 | 59.38% | 40.62% |
Goal Totals
| Home | Away | O/U Line | Over % | Under % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | Southampton | 2.75 | 47.06% | 52.94% |
| Bristol City | Cardiff | 2.25 | 34.67% | 65.33% |
| Huddersfield | Leeds | 2.75 | 23.81% | 76.19% |
| Leicester | QPR | 2.75 | 32.44% | 67.56% |
| Millwall | Watford | 2.25 | 52.11% | 47.89% |
| Norwich | Sunderland | 2.75 | 41.19% | 58.81% |
| Plymouth | Ipswich | 3 | 39.98% | 60.02% |
| Preston | Hull | 2.5 | 32.81% | 67.19% |
| Rotherham | Sheffield Wednesday | 2.25 | 40.23% | 59.77% |
| Stoke | Middlesbrough | 2.5 | 43.73% | 56.27% |
| Swansea | Blackburn | 2.75 | 56.62% | 43.38% |
| West Brom | Coventry | 2.5 | 39.83% | 60.17% |
Both Teams To Score
| Home | Away | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | Southampton | 52.62% | 47.38% |
| Bristol City | Cardiff | 30.40% | 69.60% |
| Huddersfield | Leeds | 33.64% | 66.36% |
| Leicester | QPR | 38.30% | 61.70% |
| Millwall | Watford | 49.58% | 50.42% |
| Norwich | Sunderland | 52.96% | 47.04% |
| Plymouth | Ipswich | 53.12% | 46.88% |
| Preston | Hull | 39.25% | 60.75% |
| Rotherham | Sheffield Wednesday | 40.40% | 59.60% |
| Stoke | Middlesbrough | 49.36% | 50.64% |
| Swansea | Blackburn | 61.87% | 38.13% |
| West Brom | Coventry | 43.74% | 56.26% |
What is BETSiE?
BETSiE projects the entire Championship season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.
BETSiE takes into account the following match data:
- Goals For / Against
- Shots For / Against
- Shots on Target For / Against
Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.
Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.
Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the Championship fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the Championship season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.
Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.
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