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Analysis | Wednesday, March 5, 2025 4:54 PM (Revised at: Tuesday, March 18, 2025 10:44 AM)

BETSiE Bundesliga Projections

BETSiE Bundesliga Projections
BETSiE Bundesliga Proejctions and Table Prediction - bettingexpert

We’ve decided to let the cat, BETSiE, and her Bundesliga projections and table prediction out of the bag here at bettingexpert in a bid to assist our readers when it comes to predicting the Bundesliga in Germany.

What is BETSiE? She’s bettingexpert’s in-house data projection model that takes in all sorts of different underlying metrics such as xG/xGA alongside a whole host of other secret ingredients. From there, she’ll run thousands of simulations of specific fixtures to generate match outcomes and league tables.

The Latest BETSiE Bundesliga Projections

Matchday 27 of the Bundesliga (March 28–30) brings crucial clashes. Bayern Munich (83.2%) are strong favorites against St. Pauli, while Leverkusen (78.3%) face Bochum. Dortmund (59.0%) host Mainz in a key top-four battle.

High-scoring fixtures include Gladbach vs. Leipzig (3.61 goals) and Frankfurt vs. Stuttgart (3.49). Bayern remain title frontrunners (99.5%), projected at 80.5 points (+63.4 GD), with Leverkusen and Frankfurt in the top-four race. Relegation battles tighten as Bochum, Holstein Kiel, and Heidenheim fight to avoid the drop. Matchday 27 promises key developments.


Projected Bundesliga Matchday 27 Goal Totals: March 28th-30th

Home Away HGF AGF GD GT
B. Monchengladbach RB Leipzig 1.71 1.90 -0.18 3.61
Bayer Leverkusen Bochum 2.64 0.72 1.92 3.37
Bayern Munich St. Pauli 2.55 0.43 2.12 2.98
Dortmund Mainz 1.85 0.93 0.92 2.78
Eintracht Frankfurt Stuttgart 2.04 1.45 0.59 3.49
Freiburg Union Berlin 1.49 0.97 0.52 2.47
Hoffenheim Augsburg 1.06 0.84 0.22 1.9
Holstein Kiel Werder Bremen 1.12 1.58 -0.46 2.69
Wolfsburg Heidenheim 2.15 0.95 1.20 3.1

Bundesliga table prediction abbreviations: HGF: Home Goals For – AGF: Away Goals For – GD: Goal Difference – GT: Goal Total.


Bundesliga Matchday 27 Projections: March 28th-30th

HOME AWAY Home Win % Draw % Away Win %
B. Monchengladbach RB Leipzig 35.4% 21.8% 42.8%
Bayer Leverkusen Bochum 78.3% 13.9% 7.8%
Bayern Munich St. Pauli 83.2% 12.4% 4.4%
Dortmund Mainz 59.0% 22.4% 18.5%
Eintracht Frankfurt Stuttgart 51.2% 21.4% 27.4%
Freiburg Union Berlin 49.2% 26.1% 24.7%
Hoffenheim Augsburg 40.2% 31.5% 28.3%
Holstein Kiel Werder Bremen 27.0% 25.1% 48.0%
Wolfsburg Heidenheim 64.9% 19.6% 15.5%

Bundesliga table prediction abbreviations: Home Win %: BETSiE’s Projected Probability of Home Win – Draw %: Projected Probability of Draw – Away Win %: Projected Probability of Away Win.


BETSiE’s Projected Bundesliga Table Prediction

# Club Games W D L GF GA GD pts
1 Bayern Munich 34 24.7 6.4 2.9 93.1 29.7 63.4 80.5
2 Bayer Leverkusen 34 20.8 9.8 3.4 73.3 39.5 33.8 72.1
3 Eintracht Frankfurt 34 16.9 7.8 9.3 68.8 50.7 18.1 58.5
4 Mainz 34 16.0 7.8 10.2 55.1 39.5 15.6 55.9
5 RB Leipzig 34 14.7 10.7 8.6 55.2 44.4 10.9 54.8
6 Freiburg 34 15.1 8.1 10.9 46.5 48.0 -1.6 53.3
7 B. Monchengladbach 34 14.9 5.6 13.5 55.5 54.6 0.8 50.3
8 Stuttgart 34 13.7 8.8 11.5 60.3 53.5 6.8 49.9
9 Wolfsburg 34 13.1 9.8 11.0 60.9 51.7 9.2 49.2
10 Dortmund 34 14.1 6.7 13.2 58.9 50.1 8.8 49.0
11 Augsburg 34 12.2 10.3 11.6 35.8 44.7 -8.9 46.8
12 Werder Bremen 34 12.4 7.9 13.7 52.7 64.1 -11.5 45.1
13 Union Berlin 34 9.8 8.0 16.2 33.4 50.1 -16.8 37.5
14 Hoffenheim 34 7.8 9.9 16.3 40.1 61.9 -21.8 33.4
15 St. Pauli 34 8.9 5.9 19.2 27.5 42.8 -15.3 32.7
16 Bochum 34 7.3 6.9 19.8 36.7 65.5 -28.8 28.8
17 Heidenheim 34 6.5 5.6 21.9 39.1 68.9 -29.8 25.1
18 Holstein Kiel 34 5.6 6.8 21.5 45.2 78.1 -32.9 23.8

League Finish Probabilities

Club Win League Top 4 Top 5 Top Half Bottom Half Relegation Relegation PO
Bayern Munich 99.5% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayer Leverkusen 0.5% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eintracht Frankfurt 0.0% 73.7% 85.6% 99.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Mainz 0.0% 52.9% 71.1% 98.8% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0%
RB Leipzig 0.0% 24.4% 42.7% 92.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Freiburg 0.0% 16.4% 30.4% 86.4% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Stuttgart 0.0% 12.4% 25.1% 85.1% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Wolfsburg 0.0% 10.9% 21.8% 79.5% 20.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Dortmund 0.0% 7.3% 17.0% 78.8% 21.2% 0.0% 0.0%
B. Monchengladbach 0.0% 1.3% 3.9% 40.3% 59.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Werder Bremen 0.0% 0.7% 1.9% 27.5% 72.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Augsburg 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 12.1% 87.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Union Berlin 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.3% 2.5%
Hoffenheim 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.5% 4.3%
St. Pauli 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 11.0% 25.7%
Bochum 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 29.7% 37.0%
Holstein Kiel 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 77.5% 16.0%
Heidenheim 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 81.0% 14.5%

WHAT IS BETSiE and Her Bundesliga Projections?

BETSiE projects the entire Bundesliga season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.

BETSiE takes into account the following match data:

  • Goals For / Against
  • Shots For / Against
  • Shots on Target For / Against

Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.

Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.

Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the Bundesliga fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the Bundesliga season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.

Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.


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