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Horse Racing BETSiE Predicts the Bundesliga: Updated December 16th
Matchday 15 of the Bundesliga, from December 20-22, features pivotal fixtures. Bayern Munich (65.6%) and Bayer Leverkusen (63.8%) are strong favorites in their matches against RB Leipzig and Freiburg, respectively, as they lead the title race. Stuttgart (71.5%) are expected to dominate St. Pauli, strengthening their top-six hopes, while Dortmund (46.2%) face a challenging trip to Wolfsburg.
At the bottom, Bochum (39.0%) and Holstein Kiel (32.5%) face crucial games in their fight against relegation, with both clubs facing over 80% relegation risk. Bayern remain overwhelming title favorites (92.4%).
Bundesliga Matchday 15 Projections: December 20th -22nd
| HOME | AWAY | Home Win % | Draw % | Away Win % |
| Bayer Leverkusen | Freiburg | 63.8% | 21.1% | 15.1% |
| Bayern Munich | RB Leipzig | 65.6% | 20.4% | 14.0% |
| Bochum | Heidenheim | 39.0% | 23.8% | 37.2% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | Mainz | 59.4% | 20.9% | 19.7% |
| Hoffenheim | B. Monchengladbach | 40.9% | 22.4% | 36.6% |
| Holstein Kiel | Augsburg | 32.5% | 27.2% | 40.3% |
| Stuttgart | St. Pauli | 71.5% | 17.5% | 11.0% |
| Werder Bremen | Union Berlin | 42.6% | 29.4% | 28.0% |
| Wolfsburg | Dortmund | 29.3% | 24.5% | 46.2% |
Projected goal totals: December 20th -22nd
| HOME | AWAY | HGF | AGF | GD | GT |
| Bayer Leverkusen | Freiburg | 1.95 | 0.83 | 1.13 | 2.78 |
| Bayern Munich | RB Leipzig | 2.01 | 0.8 | 1.21 | 2.81 |
| Bochum | Heidenheim | 1.57 | 1.53 | 0.04 | 3.11 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | Mainz | 2.06 | 1.1 | 0.95 | 3.16 |
| Hoffenheim | B. Monchengladbach | 1.78 | 1.67 | 0.1 | 3.45 |
| Holstein Kiel | Augsburg | 1.14 | 1.31 | -0.16 | 2.45 |
| Stuttgart | St. Pauli | 2.27 | 0.76 | 1.51 | 3.04 |
| Werder Bremen | Union Berlin | 1.2 | 0.92 | 0.29 | 2.12 |
| Wolfsburg | Dortmund | 1.24 | 1.62 | -0.38 | 2.86 |
Projected league table
| Position | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Points |
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 34 | 24.4 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 90.2 | 26.9 | 63.3 | 79.4 |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 34 | 19.8 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 71.3 | 39.6 | 31.7 | 68.6 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 18.2 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 57.9 | 37.8 | 20.1 | 62.1 |
| 4 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | 17.7 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 70.8 | 47.5 | 23.3 | 60.5 |
| 5 | Dortmund | 34 | 16.9 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 61.8 | 43.1 | 18.7 | 58.8 |
| 6 | Stuttgart | 34 | 15.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 64.4 | 52.1 | 12.4 | 55.3 |
| 7 | Freiburg | 34 | 15.2 | 7.9 | 10.9 | 48.2 | 44.4 | 3.8 | 53.4 |
| 8 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 13.5 | 7.5 | 13.0 | 60.2 | 55.5 | 4.7 | 48.0 |
| 9 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 13.0 | 8.7 | 12.3 | 47.2 | 52.9 | -5.7 | 47.6 |
| 10 | B. Monchengladbach | 34 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 13.4 | 53.7 | 52.8 | 0.9 | 47.3 |
| 11 | Mainz | 34 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 12.6 | 50.6 | 49.2 | 1.5 | 47.0 |
| 12 | Union Berlin | 34 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 34.8 | 39.4 | -4.6 | 42.6 |
| 13 | Augsburg | 34 | 9.8 | 8.9 | 15.3 | 37.9 | 57.1 | -19.2 | 38.3 |
| 14 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 15.7 | 45.9 | 62.9 | -17.0 | 36.4 |
| 15 | Heidenheim | 34 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 19.9 | 42.7 | 66.0 | -23.4 | 31.6 |
| 16 | St. Pauli | 34 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 19.9 | 29.0 | 52.3 | -23.4 | 28.9 |
| 17 | Bochum | 34 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 22.3 | 33.5 | 75.7 | -42.2 | 20.8 |
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 34 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 23.2 | 32.9 | 77.9 | -45.0 | 20.4 |
League finish probabilities
| Club | Win League | Top 4 | Top 5 | Top Half | Bottom Half | Relegation | Relegation PO |
| Bayern Munich | 92.4% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 6.2% | 94.4% | 98.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| RB Leipzig | 0.8% | 66.9% | 83.0% | 99.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 0.4% | 57.5% | 75.6% | 98.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dortmund | 0.1% | 43.1% | 65.4% | 98.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stuttgart | 0.0% | 20.3% | 37.3% | 91.9% | 8.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Freiburg | 0.0% | 11.4% | 22.8% | 85.3% | 14.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wolfsburg | 0.0% | 2.0% | 5.6% | 55.3% | 44.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Werder Bremen | 0.0% | 1.4% | 4.0% | 48.2% | 51.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| B. Monchengladbach | 0.0% | 1.5% | 4.2% | 49.1% | 50.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Mainz | 0.0% | 1.3% | 3.6% | 47.1% | 52.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Union Berlin | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 18.9% | 81.1% | 0.0% | 0.8% |
| Augsburg | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 4.5% | 95.5% | 0.8% | 4.6% |
| Hoffenheim | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.8% | 97.2% | 1.5% | 7.9% |
| Heidenheim | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 99.7% | 8.8% | 25.6% |
| St. Pauli | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 99.9% | 17.6% | 39.9% |
| Bochum | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 83.5% | 11.7% |
| Holstein Kiel | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 87.8% | 9.1% |
WHAT IS BETSIE?
BETSiE projects the entire Bundesliga season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.
BETSiE takes into account the following match data:
- Goals For / Against
- Shots For / Against
- Shots on Target For / Against
Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.
Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.
Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the Bundesliga fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the Bundesliga season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.
Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.
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