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Analysis | Friday, August 25, 2023 5:53 AM (Revised at: Thursday, April 3, 2025 4:29 PM)

BETSiE Premier League Projections

BETSiE Premier League Projections
BETSiE Premier League Projections and Table Prediction - bettingexpert

We’ve decided to unveil BETSiE and her Premier League projections and table prediction here at bettingexpert in a bid to help our readers navigate what is notoriously one of the most difficult leagues in the world to predict. 

What is BETSiE? She’s bettingexpert’s in-house data projection model that takes in all sorts of different underlying metrics such as xG/xGA alongside a whole host of other secret ingredients. From there, she’ll run thousands of simulations of specific fixtures to generate match outcomes and league tables.

The Latest BETSiE Premier League Projections

Liverpool are cruising to the title, with Arsenal their only realistic challenger. Nottingham Forest are shock top-four contenders, edging out Manchester City in fourth.

Newcastle and Chelsea complete the top six. Aston Villa, Brighton, and Bournemouth push for the top half, while Fulham sit mid-table. Manchester United and Tottenham endure woeful seasons, with Everton narrowly avoiding the drop.

The relegation fight looks bleak for Ipswich, Leicester, and Southampton, with the latter projected to finish with just 16 points.

Ruben Amorim’s Manchester United project has a 0% chance of a top-six finish, while Liverpool are overwhelming title favourites at 99.4%.


Projected Premier League Matchday 31 Goal Totals: April 5th – 7th

HOME AWAY HGF AGF GD GT
Aston Villa Nottingham Forest 1.41 1.00 0.40 2.41
Brentford Chelsea 1.60 1.89 -0.29 3.5
Crystal Palace Brighton 1.59 1.31 0.28 2.90
Everton Arsenal 0.64 1.03 -0.39 1.66
Fulham Liverpool 1.00 1.82 -0.82 2.82
Ipswich Wolverhampton 1.18 1.19 -0.01 2.37
Leicester Newcastle 0.86 1.59 -0.73 2.44
Manchester Utd Manchester City 1.26 1.74 -0.49 3.00
Tottenham Southampton 2.89 1.11 1.78 4.00
West Ham Bournemouth 1.66 1.56 0.10 3.22


Premier League Table prediction abbreviations: HGF
: Home Goals For – AGF: Away Goals For – GD: Goal Difference – GT: Goal Total.


Premier League Matchday 31 Projections: April 5th-7th

HOME AWAY Home Win % Draw % Away Win %
Aston Villa Nottingham Forest 45.3% 28.3% 26.4%
Brentford Chelsea 32.5% 23.4% 44.1%
Crystal Palace Brighton 43.2% 25.8% 30.9%
Everton Arsenal 21.8% 35.0% 43.1%
Fulham Liverpool 20.2% 24.2% 55.6%
Ipswich Wolverhampton 35.0% 29.3% 35.7%
Leicester Newcastle 20.0% 26.5% 53.4%
Manchester Utd Manchester City 27.2% 24.9% 47.9%
Tottenham Southampton 72.8% 15.5% 11.7%
West Ham Bournemouth 39.7% 24.6% 35.7%


Premier League Table prediction abbreviations: Home Win %
: BETSiE’s Projected Probability of Home Win – Draw %: Projected Probability of Draw – Away Win %: Projected Probability of Away Win.


BETSiE’s Projections Across Europe’s Top Five Leagues

On this page, each week, you’ll find updated projections and a prediction for each Premier League fixture, as well as an updated overview of the league standings. BETSiE doesn’t stop at England’s top-flight, though.

Elsewhere on bettingexpert, we also have dedicated BETSiE pages for:

Serie A

BETSiE projections, predictions and best bets over in Italy…

Bundesliga

BETSiE projections, predictions and best bets over in Germany…

Ligue 1

BETSiE projections, predictions and best bets over in France…

La Liga

BETSiE projections, predictions and best bets over in Spain…


BETSiE’s Projected Premier League table Prediction: Straight Back Down For Promoted Trio

# Club Games W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Liverpool 38 26.8 8.7 2.5 87.4 35.7 51.8 89.2
2 Arsenal 38 21.4 12.1 4.5 67.7 31.4 36.3 76.2
3 Nottingham Forest 38 19.9 8.2 9.8 60.0 44.9 15.1 68.0
4 Manchester City 38 19.4 7.9 10.8 72.6 49.0 23.6 66.0
5 Newcastle 38 19.0 7.3 11.7 62.6 49.7 13.0 64.2
6 Chelsea 38 18.4 9.1 10.6 70.1 49.6 20.6 64.1
7 Aston Villa 38 16.3 11.1 10.6 56.2 55.7 0.5 60.0
8 Brighton 38 15.0 13.0 10.0 59.6 56.7 2.9 58.0
9 Bournemouth 38 15.1 9.9 13.0 61.7 50.6 11.1 55.2
10 Fulham 38 14.5 11.2 12.4 53.4 51.5 1.9 54.5
11 Brentford 38 14.8 7.1 16.1 62.0 58.6 3.4 51.6
12 Crystal Palace 38 12.8 12.2 13.0 49.0 49.1 -0.1 50.6
13 Tottenham 38 13.5 5.9 18.5 71.1 59.3 11.8 46.5
14 Manchester Utd 38 12.4 9.0 16.5 47.1 53.8 -6.8 46.3
15 West Ham 38 11.9 9.0 17.1 44.6 62.2 -17.6 44.7
16 Everton 38 9.6 15.4 12.9 40.1 45.6 -5.6 44.3
17 Wolverhampton 38 10.6 7.1 20.3 50.6 69.3 -18.7 38.9
18 Ipswich 38 5.9 10.1 22.0 37.9 75.9 -38.0 27.8
19 Leicester 38 5.8 7.0 25.2 32.2 79.8 -47.6 24.3
20 Southampton 38 3.4 5.8 28.8 29.6 87.0 -57.5 16.0

League Finish Probabilities

Club Win League Top 2 Top 4 Top 6 Top Half Bottom Half Relegation
Liverpool 99.4% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arsenal 0.6% 93.7% 99.8% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nottingham Forest 0.0% 3.5% 69.9% 96.5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manchester City 0.0% 1.3% 56.7% 91.9% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Newcastle 0.0% 0.8% 31.1% 78.5% 99.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Chelsea 0.0% 0.7% 34.9% 80.6% 99.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Aston Villa 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% 29.4% 96.4% 3.6% 0.0%
Brighton 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 14.2% 90.8% 9.2% 0.0%
Bournemouth 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 5.0% 77.5% 22.5% 0.0%
Fulham 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.9% 65.4% 34.6% 0.0%
Brentford 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 35.6% 64.4% 0.0%
Crystal Palace 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 24.1% 75.9% 0.0%
Tottenham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 94.3% 0.0%
Manchester Utd 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.3% 96.7% 0.0%
West Ham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 99.1% 0.0%
Everton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 99.1% 0.0%
Wolverhampton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1.3%
Ipswich 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.8%
Leicester 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Southampton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 100.0%

BETSiE 2024/25 Premier League Best Bet Projections Results

Here, we’ll go bet-by-bet and month-by-month. The aim? To provide a little insight behind BETSiE’s results and the different positions she takes throughout the Premier League season. Expect each month to be updated on completion. Each BETSiE best bet can be found on this page following our weekly matchday updates.

BETSIE’S Premier League 2024/25 BEST BET RESULTS

BETS: 12
WON: 7
PROFIT: +1.72
ROI: +14.7%

January: New Year, Same Old BETSiE

New year, same old BETSiE and her Premier League projections. January started off to a flyer as Liverpool hosted Manchester United. There weren’t many siding with the Red Devils at Anfield after an abysmal stretch of form. Yet, BETSiE put up Man Utd +1.75 (AH) at Liverpool as her best bet of the week. Despite the sizeable head start, the 1.98 price would’ve been enough for a large section of punters to wince. The match ended 2-2 and left the handicap with plenty of room to spare – top-class punting. 

From Liverpool vs Manchester to another fierce rivalry, this time in North London. Tottenham +1.5 (AH) at Arsenal at 2.03 was next up. Spurs took the lead and looked bright for spells. However, with all of the absentees, Arsenal eventually took the game from their grasp and clawed two goals back (2-1). The Gunners probably should have won it by a more significant margin, but we’re certainly not complaining.

BETSiE’s next Premier League prediction saw Arsenal involved once again. And for the second week on the bounce, BETSiE was opposing Mikel Arteta’s title-chasers. Two goals in eight second-half minutes (2-2) from Youri Tielemans and Ollie Watkins, who Arsenal would bid for during the January transfer window, ensured that honours remained even and BETSiE’s Aston Villa +1 (AH) at Arsenal romped home at 2.07.

A pro-Everton angle under new manager David Moyes would take position as BETSiE’s final bet of January. Although the Toffees rode their luck (16 shots to 3), an Iliman Ndiaye penalty proved the difference (0-1). The Everton +0.75 (AH) at Brighton at 2.08 ensured January was a success in the Premier League.

December: Navigating Losses And A Duran ‘Stamp’

New month, same old BETSiE, as December offered the first chance to provide a full quota of best bets over what was shaping up to be a very hectic festive schedule. Amidst the mince pies and pigs in blankets, BETSiE served up Crystal Palace -0.25 (AH) vs Ipswich at Portman Road at 2.13. And there it was: her first publicly tracked winner in the Premier League, as Jean-Philippe Mateta grabbed a goal on the hour mark to lock in Crystal Palace’s second win of the season from 14 attempts. 

Next, a large handicap was plucked out from the data as a value Premier League prediction: Everton +1.75 (AH) vs Arsenal at the Emirates. Remember, this was a Sean Dyche Toffees side struggling in front of goal against a high-flying Arsenal outfit. Not many would have sided with the travelling Scousers. In the end, the 0-0 result not only won BETSiE a 1.87 punt, but it also kickstarted three consecutive low-scoring draws against some of the division’s best sides for Everton against Arsenal (0-0), Chelsea (0-0) and Manchester City (1-1).

Spurs’ December Deficiencies Scupper Handicap – a familiar early season trend

A ridiculous 3-6 match at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium ensured BETSiE’s next punt of Tottenham +0.75 (AH) at 1.99 vs Liverpool lost with a whimper. Liverpool recorded 5.63xG in a game which swung back and forth. Yet, it was a match-up that ultimately shone a light on Spurs’ deficiencies all over the pitch amidst a growing injury list.

A questionable Jhon Duran red card meant Aston Villa backers were left with a sour taste as the Colombian trudged off the pitch after just thirty minutes on the clock. It meant that BETSiE’s Aston Villa +0.75 (AH) at Newcastle at 1.82 had a mountain to climb away from home. The Magpies soared to a 3-0 win up North.

BETSiE would slump to a third successive loss in her Premier League prediction stances in December for the first time in 2024/25 at the hands of Arne Slot’s Liverpool. The West Ham +1.5 (AH) vs Liverpool at 1.94 lost miserably. The main takeaway from Julien Lopetegui’s West Ham was how easy it was for the Reds to waltz into dangerous areas. Liverpool registered nine Big Chances to West Ham’s one. It would transpire that Lopetegui wasn’t long for the Premier League.

November: BETSiE’s Publicly Tracked Beginnings

November’s clash of Newcastle vs West Ham saw BETSiE side with Over 3 Goals at 1.98 in her first publicly tracked best bet of the season. After beating Chelsea, Arsenal and Nottingham Forest in consecutive weeks, the hosts were projected to edge the meeting with Julien Lopetegui’s Hammers side. Instead, and despite the 1.64xG vs 0.81xG in Newcastle’s favour, West Ham ran out 0-2 winners and scuppered the Over 3.0 Goal Line in the process. 

That West Ham result and the promise of tides turning in the capital presented a West Ham -1 Asian handicap line as BETSiE’s value pick of the following Matchday. West Ham +1 (AH) vs Arsenal stood out amongst the rest at odds-against (2.04). Unfortunately for BETSiE, this would make November somewhat of a miserable month from a very limited sample size. Two selections and two losers, as Arsenal made light work of West Ham. The Gunners saw five different goalscorers contributing to a hefty 2-5 scoreline away from home.


What is BETSiE and her Premier League Projections?

BETSiE projects the entire Premier League season as a whole, providing a prediction for all 38 matchdays. She takes into account the result of every fixture played so far and every game yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.

BETSiE takes into account the following match data:

  • Goals For / Against
  • Shots For / Against
  • Shots on Target For / Against

Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.

Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.

Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the Premier League fixtures and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the Premier League season. BETSiE can work out the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each upcoming match.

Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times. From there, BETSiE can determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.


Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.

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LATEST COMMENTS

FoxxFi 30 Mar 2024 | 09:31
I hope it’s not too much work but can the other articles get updated? It’s been helpful too.
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