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Horse Racing BETSiE's Premier League Predictions: Updated 16th December 2024
Liverpool have surged ahead in the Premier League title race with a 66.2% chance of lifting the trophy, leaving Chelsea (16.6%) and Arsenal (13.7%) as distant challengers. Manchester City’s chances have fallen to just 3.4%. Chelsea and Arsenal remain strong contenders for the top four, with over 92% probability, while City sit at 74.7%.
The race for a top-half finish is tight. Bournemouth and Newcastle are each at 73%, closely followed by Nottingham Forest (70%) and Manchester United (70.7%). Brighton’s prospects look shakier at 57%, while Southampton are all but relegated with a 95.7% likelihood of finishing in the bottom three.
Key Matchday 17 fixtures include Aston Villa hosting Manchester City and Tottenham facing Liverpool, as the race for glory and survival intensifies.
Premier League Matchday 17 Projections: December 21st-22nd
| HOME | AWAY | Home Win % | Draw % | Away Win % |
| Aston Villa | Manchester City | 33.3% | 24.1% | 42.6% |
| Brentford | Nottingham Forest | 40.3% | 26.5% | 33.2% |
| Crystal Palace | Arsenal | 21.7% | 26.6% | 51.6% |
| Everton | Chelsea | 22.4% | 22.7% | 54.9% |
| Fulham | Southampton | 61.2% | 21.2% | 17.6% |
| Ipswich | Newcastle | 20.3% | 22.0% | 57.7% |
| Leicester | Wolverhampton | 35.8% | 25.8% | 38.4% |
| Manchester Utd | Bournemouth | 49.2% | 22.9% | 27.9% |
| Tottenham | Liverpool | 34.1% | 22.7% | 43.2% |
| West Ham | Brighton | 41.8% | 23.0% | 35.2% |
Projected goal totals: December 21st-22nd
| HOME | AWAY | HGF | AGF | GD | GT |
| Aston Villa | Manchester City | 1.40 | 1.61 | -0.21 | 3.01 |
| Brentford | Nottingham Forest | 1.36 | 1.20 | 0.15 | 2.56 |
| Crystal Palace | Arsenal | 0.84 | 1.46 | -0.62 | 2.31 |
| Everton | Chelsea | 1.10 | 1.84 | -0.75 | 2.94 |
| Fulham | Southampton | 1.99 | 0.97 | 1.03 | 2.96 |
| Ipswich | Newcastle | 1.05 | 1.92 | -0.87 | 2.98 |
| Leicester | Wolverhampton | 1.32 | 1.38 | -0.06 | 2.7 |
| Manchester Utd | Bournemouth | 1.82 | 1.32 | 0.5 | 3.14 |
| Tottenham | Liverpool | 1.56 | 1.78 | -0.22 | 3.34 |
| West Ham | Brighton | 1.72 | 1.56 | 0.16 | 3.28 |
Projected league table
| Position | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Points |
| 1 | Liverpool | 38 | 24.6 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 79.2 | 38.2 | 41.0 | 81.5 |
| 2 | Chelsea | 38 | 22.2 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 84.9 | 48.5 | 36.3 | 74.9 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 38 | 21.1 | 10.9 | 5.9 | 68.7 | 33.5 | 35.2 | 74.3 |
| 4 | Manchester City | 38 | 20.7 | 7.5 | 9.8 | 73.7 | 48.4 | 25.3 | 69.7 |
| 5 | Tottenham | 38 | 17.5 | 6.7 | 13.8 | 77.3 | 50.7 | 26.7 | 59.3 |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 38 | 16.4 | 9.2 | 12.4 | 58.3 | 54.5 | 3.7 | 58.4 |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 38 | 16.0 | 8.9 | 13.1 | 59.7 | 54.5 | 5.3 | 57.0 |
| 8 | Newcastle | 38 | 15.7 | 10.0 | 12.4 | 59.1 | 51.8 | 7.3 | 56.9 |
| 9 | Nottingham Forest | 38 | 15.6 | 9.9 | 12.5 | 46.6 | 46.4 | 0.2 | 56.7 |
| 10 | Manchester Utd | 38 | 15.8 | 9.1 | 13.2 | 56.8 | 48.6 | 8.3 | 56.4 |
| 11 | Brighton | 38 | 14.4 | 11.1 | 12.4 | 59.2 | 58.2 | 1.0 | 54.5 |
| 12 | Fulham | 38 | 13.6 | 11.4 | 13.0 | 52.6 | 53.9 | -1.2 | 52.3 |
| 13 | Brentford | 38 | 14.1 | 7.0 | 16.9 | 63.1 | 68.1 | -5.0 | 49.2 |
| 14 | West Ham | 38 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 16.5 | 55.0 | 67.6 | -12.6 | 47.1 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 10.8 | 12.3 | 14.8 | 45.9 | 52.3 | -6.4 | 44.9 |
| 16 | Everton | 38 | 9.1 | 11.7 | 17.2 | 37.6 | 55.9 | -18.3 | 39.1 |
| 17 | Wolverhampton | 38 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 21.8 | 49.1 | 76.9 | -27.7 | 32.2 |
| 18 | Leicester | 38 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 21.2 | 44.2 | 80.3 | -36.1 | 31.6 |
| 19 | Ipswich | 38 | 6.1 | 10.4 | 21.5 | 37.4 | 73.4 | -36.0 | 28.6 |
| 20 | Southampton | 38 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 26.0 | 35.6 | 82.3 | -46.7 | 23.2 |
League finish probabilities
| Club | Win League | Top 2 | Top 4 | Top 6 | Top Half | Bottom Half | Relegation |
| Liverpool | 66.2% | 87.4% | 99.4% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chelsea | 16.6% | 50.1% | 93.7% | 99.1% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arsenal | 13.7% | 44.9% | 92.9% | 99.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Manchester City | 3.4% | 15.5% | 74.7% | 94.0% | 99.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Tottenham | 0.1% | 0.8% | 11.0% | 44.6% | 86.1% | 13.9% | 0.0% |
| Aston Villa | 0.0% | 0.4% | 7.4% | 34.3% | 79.6% | 20.4% | 0.0% |
| Bournemouth | 0.0% | 0.2% | 4.6% | 26.6% | 73.1% | 26.9% | 0.0% |
| Newcastle | 0.0% | 0.3% | 4.6% | 26.4% | 73.5% | 26.5% | 0.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 0.0% | 0.2% | 4.1% | 23.5% | 70.4% | 29.6% | 0.0% |
| Manchester Utd | 0.0% | 0.2% | 4.1% | 24.3% | 70.7% | 29.3% | 0.0% |
| Brighton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 15.1% | 57.0% | 43.0% | 0.0% |
| Fulham | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 7.9% | 42.2% | 57.8% | 0.0% |
| Brentford | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 3.2% | 24.4% | 75.6% | 0.2% |
| West Ham | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.3% | 14.0% | 86.0% | 0.7% |
| Crystal Palace | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 8.4% | 91.6% | 1.5% |
| Everton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 99.0% | 10.9% |
| Wolverhampton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 50.9% |
| Leicester | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 60.1% |
| Ipswich | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 79.9% |
| Southampton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 95.7% |
What is BETSiE?
BETSiE projects the entire Premier League season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.
BETSiE takes into account the following match data:
- Goals For / Against
- Shots For / Against
- Shots on Target For / Against
Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.
Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.
Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the Premier League fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the Premier League season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.
Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.
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