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We’ve decided to unveil BETSiE and her Premier League projections and table prediction here at bettingexpert in a bid to help our readers navigate what is notoriously one of the most difficult leagues in the world to predict.
What is BETSiE? She’s bettingexpert’s in-house data projection model that takes in all sorts of different underlying metrics such as xG/xGA alongside a whole host of other secret ingredients. From there, she’ll run thousands of simulations of specific fixtures to generate match outcomes and league tables.
The Latest BETSiE Premier League Projections
As the Premier League heads into a crucial set of fixtures, several key matchups stand out from the projected win probabilities. Liverpool (72.0%) and Newcastle (72.1%) are the weekend’s strongest favorites, hosting Tottenham and Ipswich respectively, and will be looking to assert their dominance at home. Both matches offer significant implications for the top of the table.
Manchester City (56.5%) and Arsenal (59.6%) also carry strong home win chances against Aston Villa and Crystal Palace, with both eyeing crucial points in the title race. Meanwhile, Chelsea (51.9%) are narrowly tipped to edge past Everton, and Brighton (47.7%) and Bournemouth (46.8%) are involved in toss-up encounters with West Ham and Manchester United respectively — fixtures that could swing either way.
At the other end of the table, Southampton are the biggest underdogs this round with only a 22.5% chance of beating Fulham (54.7%), who are favorites on the road. Nottingham Forest (40.3%) will also be under pressure as they take on Brentford, who are slight away favorites.
Finally, Wolverhampton (55.3%) are fancied to overcome Leicester, continuing their push for a strong finish. With so much still to play for, these odds hint at an exciting round ahead.
Projected Premier League Matchday 34 Goal Totals: April 22nd – 27th
| HOME | AWAY | HGF | AGF | GD | GT |
| Arsenal | Crystal Palace | 1.55 | 0.7 | 0.85 | 2.26 |
| Bournemouth | Manchester Utd | 1.66 | 1.33 | 0.33 | 2.98 |
| Brighton | West Ham | 1.56 | 1.19 | 0.38 | 2.75 |
| Chelsea | Everton | 1.55 | 1.00 | 0.56 | 2.55 |
| Liverpool | Tottenham | 2.73 | 1.13 | 1.59 | 3.86 |
| Manchester City | Aston Villa | 1.90 | 1.15 | 0.75 | 3.04 |
| Newcastle | Ipswich | 2.44 | 0.92 | 1.52 | 3.36 |
| Nottingham Forest | Brentford | 1.35 | 1.27 | 0.08 | 2.63 |
| Southampton | Fulham | 0.89 | 1.56 | -0.67 | 2.45 |
| Wolverhampton | Leicester | 1.55 | 0.87 | 0.69 | 2.42 |
Premier League Table prediction abbreviations: HGF: Home Goals For – AGF: Away Goals For – GD: Goal Difference – GT: Goal Total.
Premier League Matchday 34 Projections: April 22nd-27th
| HOME | AWAY | Home Win % | Draw % | Away Win % |
| Arsenal | Crystal Palace | 59.6% | 22.9% | 17.5% |
| Bournemouth | Manchester Utd | 46.8% | 21.3% | 31.9% |
| Brighton | West Ham | 47.7% | 22.3% | 30.0% |
| Chelsea | Everton | 51.9% | 22.8% | 25.3% |
| Liverpool | Tottenham | 72.0% | 13.9% | 14.1% |
| Manchester City | Aston Villa | 56.5% | 19.8% | 23.8% |
| Newcastle | Ipswich | 72.1% | 15.0% | 12.9% |
| Nottingham Forest | Brentford | 40.3% | 23.4% | 36.3% |
| Southampton | Fulham | 22.5% | 22.8% | 54.7% |
| Wolverhampton | Leicester | 55.3% | 22.9% | 21.8% |
Premier League Table prediction abbreviations: Home Win %: BETSiE’s Projected Probability of Home Win – Draw %: Projected Probability of Draw – Away Win %: Projected Probability of Away Win.
BETSiE’s Projections Across Europe’s Top Five Leagues
On this page, each week, you’ll find updated projections and a prediction for each Premier League fixture, as well as an updated overview of the league standings. BETSiE doesn’t stop at England’s top-flight, though.
Elsewhere on bettingexpert, we also have dedicated BETSiE pages for:
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BETSiE’s Projected Premier League table Prediction: Straight Back Down For Promoted Trio
| # | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
| 1 | Liverpool | 38 | 27.0 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 85.2 | 36.6 | 48.6 | 88.8 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 20.7 | 13.1 | 4.2 | 68.6 | 31.2 | 37.4 | 75.3 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 38 | 20.0 | 7.9 | 10.0 | 74.1 | 47.3 | 26.8 | 68.0 |
| 4 | Nottingham Forest | 38 | 20.0 | 7.1 | 10.9 | 59.6 | 45.4 | 14.2 | 67.1 |
| 5 | Newcastle | 38 | 20.3 | 6.0 | 11.7 | 70.2 | 50.5 | 19.7 | 67.0 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 38 | 18.1 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 65.9 | 47.3 | 18.6 | 64.5 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 38 | 17.9 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 60.2 | 54.3 | 5.8 | 63.9 |
| 8 | Bournemouth | 38 | 15.0 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 59.4 | 47.5 | 11.9 | 55.9 |
| 9 | Fulham | 38 | 14.8 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 53.7 | 50.8 | 2.9 | 54.8 |
| 10 | Brighton | 38 | 13.8 | 13.0 | 11.2 | 60.2 | 61.0 | -0.9 | 54.4 |
| 11 | Brentford | 38 | 15.2 | 8.2 | 14.6 | 63.2 | 56.0 | 7.2 | 53.8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 12.6 | 12.0 | 13.3 | 47.2 | 52.9 | -5.7 | 49.9 |
| 13 | Everton | 38 | 10.1 | 15.2 | 12.8 | 40.3 | 45.6 | -5.3 | 45.4 |
| 14 | Manchester Utd | 38 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 17.1 | 44.6 | 53.4 | -8.8 | 44.5 |
| 15 | Wolverhampton | 38 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 19.2 | 54.1 | 68.2 | -14.1 | 44.3 |
| 16 | Tottenham | 38 | 12.8 | 4.9 | 20.3 | 68.8 | 60.3 | 8.6 | 43.3 |
| 17 | West Ham | 38 | 10.9 | 10.1 | 16.9 | 43.7 | 61.8 | -18.1 | 42.9 |
| 18 | Ipswich | 38 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 22.7 | 38.0 | 79.6 | -41.5 | 25.6 |
| 19 | Leicester | 38 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 25.4 | 32.4 | 80.5 | -48.1 | 23.5 |
| 20 | Southampton | 38 | 2.9 | 6.0 | 29.1 | 28.2 | 87.3 | -59.1 | 14.7 |
League Finish Probabilities
| Club | Win League | Top 2 | Top 4 | Top 6 | Top Half | Bottom Half | Relegation |
| Liverpool | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arsenal | 0.0% | 95.7% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Manchester City | 0.0% | 2.0% | 87.6% | 96.1% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 0.0% | 1.1% | 72.6% | 91.1% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Newcastle | 0.0% | 1.0% | 75.8% | 92.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chelsea | 0.0% | 0.1% | 38.7% | 68.5% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aston Villa | 0.0% | 0.1% | 25.3% | 51.3% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bournemouth | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 88.3% | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| Fulham | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 73.5% | 26.5% | 0.0% |
| Brighton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 65.9% | 34.1% | 0.0% |
| Brentford | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 62.1% | 37.9% | 0.0% |
| Crystal Palace | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.6% | 90.4% | 0.0% |
| Everton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 99.7% | 0.0% |
| Manchester Utd | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 99.9% | 0.0% |
| Wolverhampton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 99.9% | 0.0% |
| Tottenham | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 99.9% | 0.0% |
| West Ham | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Ipswich | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Leicester | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Southampton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
BETSiE 2024/25 Premier League Best Bet Projections Results
Here, we’ll go bet-by-bet and month-by-month. The aim? To provide a little insight behind BETSiE’s results and the different positions she takes throughout the Premier League season. Expect each month to be updated on completion. Each BETSiE best bet can be found on this page following our weekly matchday updates.
BETSIE’S Premier League 2024/25 BEST BET RESULTS
BETS: 12
WON: 7
PROFIT: +1.72
ROI: +14.7%
January: New Year, Same Old BETSiE
New year, same old BETSiE and her Premier League projections. January started off to a flyer as Liverpool hosted Manchester United. There weren’t many siding with the Red Devils at Anfield after an abysmal stretch of form. Yet, BETSiE put up Man Utd +1.75 (AH) at Liverpool as her best bet of the week. Despite the sizeable head start, the 1.98 price would’ve been enough for a large section of punters to wince. The match ended 2-2 and left the handicap with plenty of room to spare – top-class punting.
From Liverpool vs Manchester to another fierce rivalry, this time in North London. Tottenham +1.5 (AH) at Arsenal at 2.03 was next up. Spurs took the lead and looked bright for spells. However, with all of the absentees, Arsenal eventually took the game from their grasp and clawed two goals back (2-1). The Gunners probably should have won it by a more significant margin, but we’re certainly not complaining.
BETSiE’s next Premier League prediction saw Arsenal involved once again. And for the second week on the bounce, BETSiE was opposing Mikel Arteta’s title-chasers. Two goals in eight second-half minutes (2-2) from Youri Tielemans and Ollie Watkins, who Arsenal would bid for during the January transfer window, ensured that honours remained even and BETSiE’s Aston Villa +1 (AH) at Arsenal romped home at 2.07.
A pro-Everton angle under new manager David Moyes would take position as BETSiE’s final bet of January. Although the Toffees rode their luck (16 shots to 3), an Iliman Ndiaye penalty proved the difference (0-1). The Everton +0.75 (AH) at Brighton at 2.08 ensured January was a success in the Premier League.
December: Navigating Losses And A Duran ‘Stamp’
New month, same old BETSiE, as December offered the first chance to provide a full quota of best bets over what was shaping up to be a very hectic festive schedule. Amidst the mince pies and pigs in blankets, BETSiE served up Crystal Palace -0.25 (AH) vs Ipswich at Portman Road at 2.13. And there it was: her first publicly tracked winner in the Premier League, as Jean-Philippe Mateta grabbed a goal on the hour mark to lock in Crystal Palace’s second win of the season from 14 attempts.
Next, a large handicap was plucked out from the data as a value Premier League prediction: Everton +1.75 (AH) vs Arsenal at the Emirates. Remember, this was a Sean Dyche Toffees side struggling in front of goal against a high-flying Arsenal outfit. Not many would have sided with the travelling Scousers. In the end, the 0-0 result not only won BETSiE a 1.87 punt, but it also kickstarted three consecutive low-scoring draws against some of the division’s best sides for Everton against Arsenal (0-0), Chelsea (0-0) and Manchester City (1-1).
Spurs’ December Deficiencies Scupper Handicap – a familiar early season trend
A ridiculous 3-6 match at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium ensured BETSiE’s next punt of Tottenham +0.75 (AH) at 1.99 vs Liverpool lost with a whimper. Liverpool recorded 5.63xG in a game which swung back and forth. Yet, it was a match-up that ultimately shone a light on Spurs’ deficiencies all over the pitch amidst a growing injury list.
A questionable Jhon Duran red card meant Aston Villa backers were left with a sour taste as the Colombian trudged off the pitch after just thirty minutes on the clock. It meant that BETSiE’s Aston Villa +0.75 (AH) at Newcastle at 1.82 had a mountain to climb away from home. The Magpies soared to a 3-0 win up North.
BETSiE would slump to a third successive loss in her Premier League prediction stances in December for the first time in 2024/25 at the hands of Arne Slot’s Liverpool. The West Ham +1.5 (AH) vs Liverpool at 1.94 lost miserably. The main takeaway from Julien Lopetegui’s West Ham was how easy it was for the Reds to waltz into dangerous areas. Liverpool registered nine Big Chances to West Ham’s one. It would transpire that Lopetegui wasn’t long for the Premier League.
November: BETSiE’s Publicly Tracked Beginnings
November’s clash of Newcastle vs West Ham saw BETSiE side with Over 3 Goals at 1.98 in her first publicly tracked best bet of the season. After beating Chelsea, Arsenal and Nottingham Forest in consecutive weeks, the hosts were projected to edge the meeting with Julien Lopetegui’s Hammers side. Instead, and despite the 1.64xG vs 0.81xG in Newcastle’s favour, West Ham ran out 0-2 winners and scuppered the Over 3.0 Goal Line in the process.
That West Ham result and the promise of tides turning in the capital presented a West Ham -1 Asian handicap line as BETSiE’s value pick of the following Matchday. West Ham +1 (AH) vs Arsenal stood out amongst the rest at odds-against (2.04). Unfortunately for BETSiE, this would make November somewhat of a miserable month from a very limited sample size. Two selections and two losers, as Arsenal made light work of West Ham. The Gunners saw five different goalscorers contributing to a hefty 2-5 scoreline away from home.
What is BETSiE and her Premier League Projections?
BETSiE projects the entire Premier League season as a whole, providing a prediction for all 38 matchdays. She takes into account the result of every fixture played so far and every game yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.
BETSiE takes into account the following match data:
- Goals For / Against
- Shots For / Against
- Shots on Target For / Against
Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.
Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.
Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the Premier League fixtures and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the Premier League season. BETSiE can work out the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each upcoming match.
Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times. From there, BETSiE can determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.
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