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Boxing BETSiE's Premier League Predictions: Updated 16th May 2024
The title is all but Man City’s to claim, following their midweek victory over Tottenham. City are now at just over 91% chances to win the league with Arsenal needing help in the form of West Ham, with the Gunners now at 9% to win the league. While Aston Villa have secured a top 4 finish, Chelsea are firm favourites over Newcastle to finish in the top 6, now at 91% to do so with Newcastle at 9%. Brighton are favoured over Bournemouth and Crystal Palace to finish in the top half at 71% with Bournemouth at 16% and Palace at 12%.
In this article:
- BETSiE Best Bets
- Projected Premier League Table
- Premier League Season Probabilities
- BETSiE Outright Best Bets
- Match Expected Goals
- Match 1X2 Probabilities
- Asian Handicaps
- Goals Totals
- Both Teams To Score
- What is BETSiE?
BETSiE’s BEST BETS – May 19
| SELECTION | ODDS | BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|---|
| Everton +2 (AH) at Arsenal | 2.04 | Pinnacle |
| Brentford +0.25 (AH) vs Newcastle | 1.96 | Unibet |
| Nottingham Forest -0.25 (AH) at Burnley | 2.06 | Pinnacle |
| Bournemouth +1.25 (AH) at Chelsea | 1.95 | bet365 |
| Sheffield Utd +1.5 (AH) vs Tottenham | 2.03 | bet365 |
| Brighton vs Man Utd under 3.75 goals | 1.86 | bet365 |
| Burnley vs Nottingham Forest under 3 goals | 2.07 | bet365 |
| Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa under 3.5 goals | 1.86 | Pinnacle |
Odds correct as at 3pm May 16th 2024. Odds may now differ.
BETSiE BEST BETS RESULTS PREMIER LEAGUE 2023/24
| Bet Type | Units | Won | Pushes | Losses | P/L | ROI % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicaps | 91 | 39.5 | 10 | 41.5 | -2.645 | -2.9% |
| Over Unders | 36 | 19.5 | 6 | 10.5 | 8.353 | 23.2% |
| TOTAL | 127 | 59 | 16 | 52 | 5.708 | 4.5% |
BETSiE’S BEST BETS – ALL LEAGUES
Coming soon………..
Projected Premier League Table
Updated: May 16th 2024
| Position | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 38 | 27.9 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 96.6 | 33.7 | 62.9 | 90.7 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 27.8 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 91.2 | 28.6 | 62.6 | 88.4 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 38 | 23.8 | 10.1 | 4.1 | 87.1 | 41.9 | 45.2 | 81.5 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 38 | 20.3 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 77.3 | 57.7 | 19.6 | 69.1 |
| 5 | Tottenham | 38 | 19.5 | 6.2 | 12.3 | 73.0 | 62.6 | 10.4 | 64.6 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 38 | 17.5 | 9.2 | 11.3 | 76.1 | 62.5 | 13.6 | 61.7 |
| 7 | Newcastle | 38 | 17.3 | 6.2 | 14.5 | 82.8 | 62.1 | 20.7 | 58.2 |
| 8 | Manchester Utd | 38 | 17.3 | 6.2 | 14.5 | 55.3 | 58.9 | -3.6 | 58.0 |
| 9 | West Ham | 38 | 14.0 | 10.1 | 13.9 | 59.7 | 74.6 | -14.9 | 52.2 |
| 10 | Brighton | 38 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 13.3 | 56.9 | 61.3 | -4.4 | 49.8 |
| 11 | Bournemouth | 38 | 13.3 | 9.2 | 15.5 | 54.5 | 67.1 | -12.6 | 49.0 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 12.5 | 10.2 | 15.3 | 53.7 | 59.3 | -5.6 | 47.6 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton | 38 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 17.8 | 50.9 | 66.1 | -15.2 | 46.3 |
| 14 | Fulham | 38 | 12.5 | 8.2 | 17.3 | 52.7 | 60.4 | -7.6 | 45.6 |
| 15 | Everton | 38 | 13.1 | 9.2 | 15.8 | 39.6 | 51.2 | -11.6 | 42.4 |
| 16 | Brentford | 38 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 18.3 | 56.1 | 62.8 | -6.7 | 40.6 |
| 17 | Nottingham Forest | 38 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 20.2 | 48.6 | 67.0 | -18.4 | 30.8 |
| 18 | Luton | 38 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 23.5 | 51.4 | 82.7 | -31.4 | 27.1 |
| 19 | Burnley | 38 | 5.2 | 9.2 | 23.5 | 41.0 | 77.6 | -36.6 | 25.0 |
| 20 | Sheffield Utd | 38 | 3.3 | 7.2 | 27.5 | 36.6 | 103.0 | -66.4 | 17.1 |
Premier League Finish Probabilities
Updated: May 16th 2024
| Club | Win League | Top 2 Finish | Top 4 Finish | Top 6 Finish | Top Half Finish | Bottom Half Finish | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 91.1% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arsenal | 8.9% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Liverpool | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aston Villa | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tottenham | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chelsea | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 90.9% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Newcastle | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.1% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Manchester Utd | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| West Ham | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brighton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 71.2% | 28.8% | 0.0% |
| Bournemouth | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 15.9% | 84.1% | 0.0% |
| Crystal Palace | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 12.3% | 87.7% | 0.0% |
| Wolverhampton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 99.5% | 0.0% |
| Fulham | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Everton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Brentford | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Luton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Burnley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Sheffield Utd | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
BETSiE OUTRIGHT BEST BETS
as at 16th May 2024
| BETSiE OUTRIGHT BEST BETS | ODDS | BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle top 6 finish | 15.0 | bet365 |
| Bournemouth top half finish | 8.0 | Skybet |
Odds correct as at 2pm May 16th2024. Odds may now differ
Upcoming Matches: May 19
Match Expected Goals
| Home | Away | Home | Away | Margin | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | Everton | 2.21 | 0.57 | 1.64 | 2.78 |
| Brentford | Newcastle | 2.08 | 1.76 | 0.32 | 3.83 |
| Brighton | Manchester Utd | 1.90 | 1.27 | 0.63 | 3.17 |
| Burnley | Nottingham Forest | 1.04 | 1.62 | -0.58 | 2.67 |
| Chelsea | Bournemouth | 2.06 | 1.48 | 0.58 | 3.54 |
| Crystal Palace | Aston Villa | 1.65 | 1.27 | 0.39 | 2.92 |
| Liverpool | Wolverhampton | 3.12 | 0.90 | 2.22 | 4.01 |
| Luton | Fulham | 1.37 | 1.74 | -0.38 | 3.11 |
| Manchester City | West Ham | 3.61 | 0.74 | 2.87 | 4.35 |
| Sheffield Utd | Tottenham | 1.55 | 1.96 | -0.41 | 3.52 |
Match 1X2 Probabilities
| Home | Away | Home % | Draw % | Away % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | Everton | 75.11% | 16.84% | 8.04% |
| Brentford | Newcastle | 45.86% | 20.94% | 33.20% |
| Brighton | Manchester Utd | 52.20% | 22.34% | 25.46% |
| Burnley | Nottingham Forest | 24.36% | 24.75% | 50.89% |
| Chelsea | Bournemouth | 51.10% | 21.26% | 27.65% |
| Crystal Palace | Aston Villa | 46.49% | 24.18% | 29.34% |
| Liverpool | Wolverhampton | 80.87% | 11.70% | 7.43% |
| Luton | Fulham | 30.18% | 23.37% | 46.45% |
| Manchester City | West Ham | 88.24% | 7.84% | 3.92% |
| Sheffield Utd | Tottenham | 30.80% | 21.78% | 47.42% |
Asian Handicaps
| Home | Away | Home AH | Away AH | Home AH % | Away AH % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | Everton | -2 | 2 | 36.34% | 63.66% |
| Brentford | Newcastle | 0.25 | -0.25 | 62.41% | 37.59% |
| Brighton | Manchester Utd | -0.25 | 0.25 | 59.71% | 40.29% |
| Burnley | Nottingham Forest | 0.25 | -0.25 | 40.74% | 59.26% |
| Chelsea | Bournemouth | -1.25 | 1.25 | 34.02% | 65.98% |
| Crystal Palace | Aston Villa | -0.5 | 0.5 | 46.49% | 53.51% |
| Liverpool | Wolverhampton | -2.25 | 2.25 | 47.73% | 52.27% |
| Luton | Fulham | 0.25 | -0.25 | 46.47% | 53.53% |
| Manchester City | West Ham | -2.5 | 2.5 | 54.99% | 45.01% |
| Sheffield Utd | Tottenham | 1.5 | -1.5 | 73.16% | 26.84% |
Goal Totals
| Home | Away | O/U Line | Over % | Under % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | Everton | 3.5 | 30.27% | 69.73% |
| Brentford | Newcastle | 3.5 | 53.33% | 46.67% |
| Brighton | Manchester Utd | 3.75 | 32.61% | 67.39% |
| Burnley | Nottingham Forest | 3 | 35.65% | 64.35% |
| Chelsea | Bournemouth | 3.75 | 41.06% | 58.94% |
| Crystal Palace | Aston Villa | 3.5 | 33.46% | 66.54% |
| Liverpool | Wolverhampton | 4 | 46.46% | 53.54% |
| Luton | Fulham | 3.25 | 43.13% | 56.87% |
| Manchester City | West Ham | 4 | 54.33% | 45.67% |
| Sheffield Utd | Tottenham | 4 | 34.23% | 65.77% |
Both Teams To Score
| Home | Away | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | Everton | 38.53% | 61.47% |
| Brentford | Newcastle | 72.36% | 27.64% |
| Brighton | Manchester Utd | 61.19% | 38.81% |
| Burnley | Nottingham Forest | 51.96% | 48.04% |
| Chelsea | Bournemouth | 67.41% | 32.59% |
| Crystal Palace | Aston Villa | 58.05% | 41.95% |
| Liverpool | Wolverhampton | 56.60% | 43.40% |
| Luton | Fulham | 61.44% | 38.56% |
| Manchester City | West Ham | 50.76% | 49.24% |
| Sheffield Utd | Tottenham | 67.77% | 32.23% |
What is BETSiE?
BETSiE projects the entire Premier League season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.
BETSiE takes into account the following match data:
- Goals For / Against
- Shots For / Against
- Shots on Target For / Against
Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.
Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.
Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the Premier League fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the Premier League season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.
Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.
Safer Gambling
At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.
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