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Horse Racing BETSiE's Premier League Predictions: Updated January 21st
Liverpool remain firm favourites in the Premier League title race with a 92.0% chance of winning, far ahead of Arsenal (7.3%) and Chelsea (0.2%). Manchester City’s slim title hopes (0.2%) come with a 47.7% chance of a top-four finish, while Newcastle (33.8%) and Chelsea (56.9%) remain strong contenders.
Nottingham Forest (98.8%) and Newcastle (98.8%) are top-half certainties, joined by Aston Villa (90.5%) and Bournemouth (96.1%). Southampton are almost certain to be relegated (99.7%), with Leicester (87.4%) and Ipswich (79.0%) also in serious trouble.
Matchday 23 sees Liverpool (85.7%) hosting Ipswich and Arsenal (61.7%) visiting Wolves. Liverpool are projected to finish with 85.8 points and a +51.3 goal difference, leading Arsenal (75.6 points) and Chelsea (66.6 points). Southampton’s struggles continue, with a projected 18.4 points and a -53.4 goal difference.
Premier League Matchday 23 Projections: January 25th – 26th
| HOME | AWAY | Home Win % | Draw % | Away Win % |
| Aston Villa | West Ham | 55.8% | 22.9% | 21.3% |
| Bournemouth | Nottingham Forest | 49.8% | 25.7% | 24.5% |
| Brighton | Everton | 50.8% | 26.4% | 22.9% |
| Crystal Palace | Brentford | 46.8% | 23.7% | 29.5% |
| Fulham | Manchester Utd | 40.1% | 26.7% | 33.2% |
| Liverpool | Ipswich | 85.7% | 9.8% | 4.6% |
| Manchester City | Chelsea | 45.3% | 20.9% | 33.8% |
| Southampton | Newcastle | 18.9% | 20.0% | 61.1% |
| Tottenham | Leicester | 73.1% | 15.2% | 11.7% |
| Wolverhampton | Arsenal | 15.3% | 23.0% | 61.7% |
Projected goal totals: January 25th – 26th
| HOME | AWAY | HGF | AGF | GD | GT |
| Aston Villa | West Ham | 1.82 | 1.04 | 0.79 | 2.86 |
| Bournemouth | Nottingham Forest | 1.53 | 0.99 | 0.54 | 2.52 |
| Brighton | Everton | 1.48 | 0.90 | 0.58 | 2.38 |
| Crystal Palace | Brentford | 1.71 | 1.31 | 0.4 | 3.01 |
| Fulham | Manchester Utd | 1.34 | 1.20 | 0.15 | 2.54 |
| Liverpool | Ipswich | 3.13 | 0.63 | 2.49 | 3.76 |
| Manchester City | Chelsea | 2.08 | 1.79 | 0.29 | 3.87 |
| Southampton | Newcastle | 1.14 | 2.18 | -1.04 | 3.32 |
| Tottenham | Leicester | 2.73 | 1.03 | 1.7 | 3.77 |
| Wolverhampton | Arsenal | 0.73 | 1.75 | -1.02 | 2.48 |
Projected league table
| Position | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Points |
| 1 | Liverpool | 38 | 25.8 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 88.3 | 37.2 | 51.1 | 85.7 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 21.3 | 11.7 | 5.0 | 71.3 | 34.9 | 36.4 | 75.6 |
| 3 | Chelsea | 38 | 19.3 | 10.2 | 8.5 | 77.7 | 50.0 | 27.7 | 68.1 |
| 4 | Manchester City | 38 | 19.1 | 8.4 | 10.5 | 75.0 | 50.7 | 24.2 | 65.7 |
| 5 | Nottingham Forest | 38 | 18.5 | 9.4 | 10.0 | 51.0 | 41.0 | 10.0 | 65.1 |
| 6 | Newcastle | 38 | 18.8 | 8.6 | 10.6 | 65.2 | 45.6 | 19.6 | 65.0 |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 38 | 17.2 | 10.5 | 10.3 | 63.7 | 49.3 | 14.5 | 62.0 |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 38 | 16.8 | 10.0 | 11.2 | 56.6 | 54.2 | 2.5 | 60.4 |
| 9 | Brighton | 38 | 14.1 | 13.8 | 10.0 | 58.3 | 53.1 | 5.2 | 56.3 |
| 10 | Fulham | 38 | 13.3 | 13.1 | 11.6 | 53.4 | 52.2 | 1.2 | 53.1 |
| 11 | Manchester Utd | 38 | 13.7 | 8.8 | 15.5 | 51.7 | 53.8 | -2.2 | 49.9 |
| 12 | Tottenham | 38 | 14.5 | 6.3 | 17.2 | 76.2 | 60.3 | 15.9 | 49.8 |
| 13 | Brentford | 38 | 13.6 | 7.6 | 16.7 | 64.2 | 66.1 | -1.9 | 48.5 |
| 14 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11.6 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 45.3 | 50.8 | -5.5 | 47.6 |
| 15 | West Ham | 38 | 12.4 | 8.5 | 17.0 | 49.8 | 69.8 | -20.0 | 45.9 |
| 16 | Everton | 38 | 9.0 | 12.4 | 16.7 | 35.6 | 51.7 | -16.1 | 39.2 |
| 17 | Wolverhampton | 38 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 21.8 | 50.2 | 77.3 | -27.1 | 33.1 |
| 18 | Ipswich | 38 | 6.3 | 10.4 | 21.3 | 36.1 | 74.4 | -38.3 | 29.2 |
| 19 | Leicester | 38 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 23.4 | 40.0 | 80.5 | -40.6 | 27.2 |
| 20 | Southampton | 38 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 27.8 | 33.2 | 86.4 | -53.2 | 18.5 |
League finish probabilities
| Club | Win League | Top 2 | Top 4 | Top 6 | Top Half | Bottom Half | Relegation |
| Liverpool | 91.4% | 99.3% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arsenal | 7.7% | 74.3% | 96.2% | 99.5% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chelsea | 0.5% | 13.2% | 66.6% | 90.4% | 99.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Manchester City | 0.2% | 5.8% | 45.7% | 78.1% | 99.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 0.1% | 2.8% | 29.6% | 64.6% | 98.7% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Newcastle | 0.1% | 3.0% | 32.5% | 69.0% | 98.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Bournemouth | 0.0% | 1.1% | 16.8% | 48.2% | 95.8% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| Aston Villa | 0.0% | 0.4% | 9.2% | 30.7% | 90.9% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| Brighton | 0.0% | 0.1% | 2.8% | 12.9% | 76.2% | 23.8% | 0.0% |
| Fulham | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 3.9% | 51.6% | 48.4% | 0.0% |
| Manchester Utd | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 21.2% | 78.8% | 0.1% |
| Tottenham | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.3% | 29.8% | 70.2% | 0.0% |
| Brentford | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 19.7% | 80.3% | 0.0% |
| Crystal Palace | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 11.7% | 88.3% | 0.1% |
| West Ham | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.0% | 94.0% | 0.3% |
| Everton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 99.6% | 5.1% |
| Wolverhampton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 32.9% |
| Ipswich | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 75.6% |
| Leicester | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 86.3% |
| Southampton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 99.6% |
What is BETSiE?
BETSiE projects the entire Premier League season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.
BETSiE takes into account the following match data:
- Goals For / Against
- Shots For / Against
- Shots on Target For / Against
Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.
Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.
Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the Premier League fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the Premier League season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.
Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.
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