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Horse Racing BETSiE Ligue 1 Projections
We’ve decided to unveil BETSiE and her Ligue 1 projections and table prediction here at bettingexpert in a bid to aid our readers as they take on the French top flight head-on from a betting perspective throughout the 2024/25 season.
What is BETSiE? She’s bettingexpert’s in-house data projection model that takes in all sorts of different underlying metrics such as xG/xGA alongside a whole host of other secret ingredients. From there, she’ll run thousands of simulations of specific fixtures to generate match outcomes and league tables.
The Latest BETSiE Ligue 1 Projections
PSG remain unstoppable in Ligue 1, with a 100% title probability. Monaco (95.4%) and Marseille (79.8%) look strong for Champions League qualification, with Lyon (58.7%) chasing closely. At the bottom, Montpellier (99.5%) and St Etienne (88.3%) are almost certain to go down. Matchday 30’s headline clash sees Monaco (71.6%) heavy favourites at home to Strasbourg, while Lyon (61.7%) are tipped for an away win at St Etienne. Marseille (72.3%) are expected to breeze past Montpellier, while PSG (91%) should dominate Le Havre. Lille (66.4%) and Nice (66.6%) are both strong favourites at home, but Reims (33.5%) could struggle against Toulouse. Lens edge Brest (41.8% home win), and Rennes (50.5%) are narrowly fancied to beat Nantes.
Projected Ligue Un Matchday 30 Goal Totals: April 18th – 20th
| Home | Away | HGF | AGF | GD | GT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brest | Lens | 1.53 | 1.37 | 0.16 | 2.89 |
| Lille | Auxerre | 2.04 | 0.84 | 1.21 | 2.88 |
| Marseille | Montpellier | 2.43 | 0.89 | 1.54 | 3.32 |
| Monaco | Strasbourg | 2.7 | 1.12 | 1.58 | 3.83 |
| Nice | Angers | 2.01 | 0.8 | 1.21 | 2.81 |
| PSG | Le Havre | 3.89 | 0.71 | 3.17 | 4.6 |
| Reims | Toulouse | 1.16 | 1.3 | -0.15 | 2.46 |
| Rennes | Nantes | 1.68 | 1.16 | 0.53 | 2.84 |
| St Etienne | Lyon | 1.24 | 2.28 | -1.04 | 3.52 |
Ligue 1 table prediction abbreviations: HGF: Home Goals For – AGF: Away Goals For – GD: Goal Difference – GT: Goal Total.
Ligue Un Matchday 30 Projections: April 18th – 20th
| Home | Away | Home Win % | Draw % | Away Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brest | Lens | 41.8% | 23.5% | 34.6% |
| Lille | Auxerre | 66.4% | 19.1% | 14.4% |
| Marseille | Montpellier | 72.3% | 15.9% | 11.9% |
| Monaco | Strasbourg | 71.6% | 15.0% | 13.4% |
| Nice | Angers | 66.6% | 19.3% | 14.1% |
| PSG | Le Havre | 91.0% | 6.0% | 3.0% |
| Reims | Toulouse | 33.5% | 25.9% | 40.6% |
| Rennes | Nantes | 50.5% | 22.9% | 26.5% |
| St Etienne | Lyon | 19.8% | 18.4% | 61.7% |
Ligue 1 table prediction abbreviations: Home Win %: BETSiE’s Projected Probability of Home Win – Draw %: Projected Probability of Draw – Away Win %: Projected Probability of Away Win.
BETSiE’s Projected Ligue Un Table Prediction
| # | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD |
pts
|
| 1 | PSG | 34 | 27.8 | 5.7 | 0.5 | 98.1 | 31.0 | 67.1 | 89.1 |
| 2 | Monaco | 34 | 19.4 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 70.2 | 41.0 | 29.2 | 64.0 |
| 3 | Marseille | 34 | 18.9 | 5.0 | 10.1 | 67.1 | 46.7 | 20.4 | 61.7 |
| 4 | Lyon | 34 | 17.6 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 66.6 | 45.9 | 20.7 | 59.8 |
| 5 | Lille | 34 | 16.7 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 52.8 | 36.4 | 16.4 | 59.2 |
| 6 | Strasbourg | 34 | 16.0 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 56.2 | 45.9 | 10.3 | 56.8 |
| 7 | Nice | 34 | 15.3 | 10.0 | 8.6 | 62.0 | 43.7 | 18.3 | 56.0 |
| 8 | Brest | 34 | 14.7 | 6.1 | 13.2 | 53.7 | 54.0 | -0.3 | 50.1 |
| 9 | Lens | 34 | 13.6 | 7.1 | 13.2 | 38.8 | 40.2 | -1.5 | 48.0 |
| 10 | Auxerre | 34 | 11.2 | 9.0 | 13.8 | 45.4 | 51.9 | -6.5 | 42.6 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 34 | 11.2 | 8.3 | 14.5 | 45.2 | 43.7 | 1.5 | 41.9 |
| 12 | Rennes | 34 | 12.6 | 3.2 | 18.2 | 49.3 | 46.5 | 2.8 | 41.1 |
| 13 | Nantes | 34 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 14.5 | 41.3 | 56.3 | -15.0 | 37.9 |
| 14 | Reims | 34 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 16.2 | 37.4 | 49.6 | -12.2 | 35.1 |
| 15 | Angers | 34 | 9.0 | 7.1 | 17.9 | 32.8 | 55.3 | -22.5 | 34.1 |
| 16 | Le Havre | 34 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 21.3 | 37.5 | 74.7 | -37.2 | 30.4 |
| 17 | St Etienne | 34 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 20.5 | 36.2 | 80.0 | -43.8 | 26.0 |
| 18 | Montpellier | 34 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 24.3 | 28.0 | 75.6 | -47.6 | 20.8 |
League Finish Probabilities
| Club | Win League | Top 3 | Top 4 | Top 6 | Top Half | Bottom Half | Relegation |
| PSG | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Monaco | 0.0% | 87.8% | 95.4% | 99.7% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marseille | 0.0% | 57.7% | 79.8% | 97.7% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lyon | 0.0% | 28.3% | 58.7% | 93.4% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lille | 0.0% | 20.1% | 43.5% | 88.6% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Strasbourg | 0.0% | 3.5% | 11.6% | 61.9% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nice | 0.0% | 2.6% | 10.8% | 55.8% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brest | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 2.6% | 95.5% | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| Lens | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 81.7% | 18.3% | 0.0% |
| Auxerre | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.0% | 91.0% | 0.0% |
| Toulouse | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.9% | 91.1% | 0.0% |
| Rennes | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.5% | 95.5% | 0.0% |
| Nantes | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 99.7% | 0.0% |
| Reims | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.5% |
| Angers | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.2% |
| Le Havre | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 11.4% |
| St Etienne | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 88.3% |
| Montpellier | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 99.5% |
What is BETSiE?
BETSiE projects the entire Ligue 1 season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.
BETSiE takes into account the following match data:
- Goals For / Against
- Shots For / Against
- Shots on Target For / Against
Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.
Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.
Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the Ligue Un fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the Ligue Un season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.
Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.
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