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Horse Racing BETSiE La Liga Projections
We’ve decided to release BETSiE and her La Liga projections and table prediction to the wild here at bettingexpert in a bid to help our readers navigate La Liga as Spain’s top flight progresses through the 2024/25 season.
What is BETSiE? She’s bettingexpert’s in-house data projection model that takes in all sorts of different underlying metrics such as xG/xGA alongside a whole host of other secret ingredients. From there, she’ll run thousands of simulations of specific fixtures to generate match outcomes and league tables.
The Latest BETSiE La Liga Projections
Barcelona (83.8%) remain strong favourites for the La Liga title, comfortably ahead of Real Madrid (15%) and Atletico (1.2%). Xavi’s men are tipped to ease past Celta (74% win chance) in a clash expected to feature 3.16 goals. Real Madrid (58.5%) face a tough home test against Athletic Club, while Atletico (58.1%) are favourites away to struggling Las Palmas. Valladolid (100%), Leganes (75.7%) and Las Palmas (70.2%) are the most likely to go down. Villarreal’s home clash with Sociedad (2.34 goals projected) could shape the top-six race, while Betis and Girona (both 36% win chance) meet in a tight contest. Every goal matters now in the sprint towards the title, Europe, and survival.
La Liga Projected Matchday 32 Goal Totals: April 18th – 21st
| HOME | AWAY | HGF | AGF | GD | GT |
| Barcelona | Celta | 2.41 | 0.76 | 1.65 | 3.16 |
| Espanyol | Getafe | 1.12 | 0.83 | 0.29 | 1.95 |
| Girona | Betis | 1.25 | 1.25 | 0 | 2.5 |
| Las Palmas | Atl. Madrid | 1.00 | 1.88 | -0.88 | 2.87 |
| Mallorca | Leganes | 1.54 | 0.94 | 0.6 | 2.48 |
| Vallecano | Valencia | 1.32 | 1.21 | 0.11 | 2.53 |
| Real Madrid | Ath Bilbao | 1.83 | 0.93 | 0.89 | 2.76 |
| Sevilla | Alaves | 1.14 | 0.85 | 0.29 | 1.99 |
| Valladolid | Osasuna | 1.06 | 1.39 | -0.33 | 2.45 |
| Villarreal | Sociedad | 1.49 | 0.85 | 0.65 | 2.34 |
La Liga table prediction abbreviations: HGF: Home Goals For – AGF: Away Goals For – GD: Goal Difference – GT: Goal Total.
La Liga Matchday 32 Projections: April 18th – 21st
| HOME | AWAY | Home Win | Draw | Away Win |
| Barcelona | Celta | 74.0% | 16.2% | 9.8% |
| Espanyol | Getafe | 42.4% | 30.8% | 26.9% |
| Girona | Betis | 36.4% | 26.9% | 36.7% |
| Las Palmas | Atl. Madrid | 19.7% | 22.2% | 58.1% |
| Mallorca | Leganes | 51.4% | 25.6% | 23.0% |
| Vallecano | Valencia | 39.4% | 26.7% | 33.9% |
| Real Madrid | Ath Bilbao | 58.5% | 22.6% | 18.9% |
| Sevilla | Alaves | 42.5% | 30.4% | 27.1% |
| Valladolid | Osasuna | 28.6% | 26.8% | 44.6% |
| Villarreal | Sociedad | 52.5% | 26.2% | 21.3% |
La Liga table prediction abbreviations: Home Win %: BETSiE’s Projected Probability of Home Win – Draw %: Projected Probability of Draw – Away Win %: Projected Probability of Away Win.
BETSiE’s Projected La Liga Table Prediction
| # | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | pts |
| 1 | Barcelona | 38 | 26.5 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 99.2 | 35.9 | 63.4 | 84.7 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 24.3 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 77.6 | 37.5 | 40.1 | 80.2 |
| 3 | Atl. Madrid | 38 | 21.9 | 10.7 | 5.4 | 64.9 | 32.3 | 32.6 | 76.4 |
| 4 | Ath Bilbao | 38 | 18.1 | 13.8 | 6.1 | 58.5 | 32.4 | 26.1 | 68.1 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 38 | 18.1 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 66.7 | 49.1 | 17.5 | 65.1 |
| 6 | Betis | 38 | 16.1 | 10.7 | 11.2 | 52.4 | 47.5 | 4.9 | 58.9 |
| 7 | Mallorca | 38 | 14.4 | 8.7 | 15.0 | 38.8 | 46.8 | -8.0 | 51.7 |
| 8 | Celta | 38 | 14.0 | 8.8 | 15.2 | 51.1 | 55.0 | -3.9 | 50.9 |
| 9 | Vallecano | 38 | 12.4 | 11.8 | 13.8 | 42.2 | 47.1 | -4.9 | 49.1 |
| 10 | Sociedad | 38 | 14.0 | 7.0 | 17.0 | 36.3 | 42.4 | -6.2 | 49.1 |
| 11 | Valencia | 38 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 14.4 | 44.2 | 55.4 | -11.2 | 47.2 |
| 12 | Osasuna | 38 | 10.3 | 15.8 | 11.9 | 44.2 | 53.7 | -9.5 | 46.7 |
| 13 | Getafe | 38 | 11.6 | 10.9 | 15.5 | 36.6 | 37.6 | -1.1 | 45.6 |
| 14 | Sevilla | 38 | 11.4 | 10.9 | 15.7 | 41.9 | 50.5 | -8.6 | 45.2 |
| 15 | Espanyol | 38 | 11.1 | 10.0 | 16.9 | 40.9 | 51.9 | -11.0 | 43.4 |
| 16 | Girona | 38 | 11.3 | 8.9 | 17.8 | 45.8 | 56.7 | -10.9 | 42.9 |
| 17 | Alaves | 38 | 9.4 | 11.0 | 17.6 | 40.2 | 52.8 | -12.6 | 39.1 |
| 18 | Las Palmas | 38 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 19.3 | 45.0 | 62.9 | -17.9 | 36.8 |
| 19 | Leganes | 38 | 8.3 | 11.7 | 18.0 | 37.3 | 58.2 | -20.9 | 36.5 |
| 20 | Valladolid | 38 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 26.9 | 27.1 | 85.0 | -57.9 | 21.9 |
League Finish Probabilities
| Club | Win League | Top 2 | Top 4 | Top 6 | Top Half | Bottom Half | Relegation |
| Barcelona | 83.8% | 98.3% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Real Madrid | 15.0% | 82.4% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Atl. Madrid | 1.2% | 19.0% | 99.7% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ath Bilbao | 0.0% | 0.3% | 75.6% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Villarreal | 0.0% | 0.0% | 24.0% | 99.8% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Betis | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 89.2% | 99.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mallorca | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.8% | 83.5% | 16.5% | 0.0% |
| Celta | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.3% | 79.3% | 20.7% | 0.0% |
| Vallecano | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.9% | 59.9% | 40.1% | 0.0% |
| Sociedad | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 58.3% | 41.7% | 0.0% |
| Valencia | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 34.0% | 66.0% | 0.8% |
| Osasuna | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 29.4% | 70.6% | 0.6% |
| Getafe | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 22.9% | 77.1% | 0.3% |
| Sevilla | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 17.9% | 82.1% | 2.4% |
| Espanyol | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.0% | 92.0% | 6.7% |
| Girona | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.2% | 93.8% | 7.7% |
| Alaves | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 99.4% | 35.6% |
| Las Palmas | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 99.9% | 70.2% |
| Leganes | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 75.7% |
| Valladolid | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
What is BETSiE and Her La Liga Projections?
BETSiE projects the entire La Liga season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.
BETSiE takes into account the following match data:
- Goals For / Against
- Shots For / Against
- Shots on Target For / Against
Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.
Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.
Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the La Liga fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the La Liga season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.
Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.
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