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Analysis | Sunday, March 30, 2025 12:24 PM (Revised at: Wednesday, April 16, 2025 12:55 PM)

BETSiE England League 2 Projections

BETSiE England League 2 Projections
BETSiE England League 2 Projections and Table Prediction - bettingexpert - Colchester's Lyle Taylor during the Sky Bet League Two match at the University of Bradford Stadium

We’ve decided to unveil BETSiE and her England League 2 projections and table prediction here at bettingexpert to help our readers navigate the choppiest of fourth tier waters during the 2024/25 season. 

And what is BETSiE? She’s bettingexpert’s in-house data projection model that takes in all sorts of different underlying metrics such as xG/xGA alongside a whole host of other secret ingredients. From there, she’ll run thousands of simulations of specific fixtures to generate match outcomes and league tables.

The Latest BETSiE England League 2 Projections

The projected goal totals for England League 2 Matchday 43 (April 17th–18th) highlight Carlisle vs. Port Vale (3.15) and Bromley vs. Morecambe (3.10) as the most goal-likely fixtures. MK Dons vs. Newport (2.95) and Walsall vs. Harrogate (2.92) also stand out.

MK Dons boast the strongest home win chance at 52.2%, closely followed by Walsall (49.6%) and Salford (47.7%). Carlisle vs. Port Vale appears the most evenly balanced, with a near 38% chance for each side.

Port Vale (57.0%) are strong favourites for the title, ahead of Bradford City (16.3%) and Walsall (14.5%). At the bottom, Morecambe (96.1%) and Carlisle (91.3%) are almost certain to be relegated.


BETSiE’s Projected England League 2 Table Prediction

Updated: 16th April 2025

# Club Games W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Port Vale 46 22.6 14.0 9.4 64.9 45.6 19.3 81.7
2 Bradford City 46 22.5 11.0 12.5 63.7 44.5 19.2 78.6
3 Walsall 46 21.8 13.0 11.2 78.2 55.9 22.3 78.4
4 Doncaster 46 21.7 13.0 11.4 69.1 53.4 15.7 78.0
5 AFC Wimbledon 46 20.5 13.0 12.4 60.4 37.2 23.2 74.6
6 Notts Co 46 20.6 12.0 13.4 67.9 48.6 19.3 73.7
7 Grimsby 46 21.6 7.0 17.4 64.7 65.5 -0.8 71.7
8 Colchester 46 17.4 18.0 10.6 56.2 45.8 10.4 70.1
9 Chesterfield 46 18.7 12.0 15.3 70.9 55.0 15.9 68.1
10 Salford 46 17.6 15.0 13.4 60.1 53.6 6.6 67.9
11 Crewe 46 16.5 17.0 12.5 54.6 49.6 5.0 66.5
12 Swindon 46 15.7 16.0 14.3 72.1 66.1 6.0 63.1
13 Fleetwood 46 15.7 14.9 15.3 63.4 61.5 1.9 62.1
14 Bromley 46 15.4 15.0 15.7 61.5 62.2 -0.7 61.1
15 Barrow 46 16.5 11.0 18.5 54.6 52.4 2.2 60.6
16 Cheltenham 46 15.4 12.0 18.6 59.5 69.1 -9.6 58.1
17 Gillingham 46 13.4 15.0 17.6 42.3 49.6 -7.4 55.3
18 MK Dons 46 14.4 8.0 23.6 56.5 71.7 -15.3 51.3
19 Newport 46 14.1 8.9 23.0 56.0 77.1 -21.1 51.2
20 Harrogate 46 13.4 11.0 21.7 40.7 60.4 -19.6 51.1
21 Tranmere 46 11.6 15 19.4 45 66.6 -21.6 49.8
22 Accrington 46 11.2 14.1 20.7 53.5 71.5 -18 47.8
23 Carlisle 46 10.4 11 24.6 41.9 69.3 -27.4 42.2
24 Morecambe 46 11.4 6.9 27.7 43 68.5 -25.6 41.2

Projected England League 2 Matchday 43 Goal Totals: April 17th-18th

HOME AWAY HGF AGF GD GT
AFC Wimbledon Chesterfield 1.43 1.23 0.20 2.66
Bradford City Notts Co 1.57 1.19 0.38 2.76
Bromley Morecambe 1.67 1.43 0.24 3.10
Carlisle Port Vale 1.56 1.59 -0.02 3.15
Cheltenham Gillingham 1.41 1.33 0.08 2.75
Colchester Crewe 1.48 1.28 0.20 2.76
Fleetwood Barrow 1.61 1.22 0.39 2.83
Grimsby Swindon 1.52 1.29 0.22 2.81
MK Dons Newport 1.79 1.16 0.63 2.95
Salford Accrington 1.48 1.03 0.45 2.51
Tranmere Doncaster 1.49 1.42 0.06 2.91
Walsall Harrogate 1.72 1.20 0.52 2.92

BETSiE England League 2 Goal Total abbreviations: HGF: Home Goals For – AGF: Away Goals For – GD: Goal Difference – GT: Goal Total.


England League 2 Matchday 43 Projections: April 17th – 18th

Home Away Home % Draw % Away %
AFC Wimbledon Chesterfield 41.60% 25.8% 32.6%
Bradford City Notts Co 46.10% 24.9% 29.0%
Bromley Morecambe 43.40% 23.6% 33.0%
Carlisle Port Vale 37.80% 23.5% 38.7%
Cheltenham Gillingham 39.1% 25.4% 35.4%
Colchester Crewe 41.9% 25.3% 32.8%
Fleetwood Barrow 46.4% 24.5% 29.0%
Grimsby Swindon 42.6% 24.9% 32.5%
MK Dons Newport 52.2% 23.1% 24.7%
Salford Accrington 47.7% 26.0% 26.3%
Tranmere Doncaster 39.10% 24.60% 36.30%
Walsall Harrogate 49.60% 23.70% 26.80%

BETSiE England League 2 Projections abbreviations: Home Win %: BETSiE’s Projected Probability of Home Win – Draw %: Projected Probability of Draw – Away Win %: Projected Probability of Away Win.


 

BETSiE England League 2 Projections: Finish Probabilities

Club Win League Top 2 Finish Playoffs Top 6 Finish Top Half Finish Bottom Half Finish Relegation
Port Vale 57.0% 92.6% 7.4% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bradford City 16.3% 63.0% 37.0% 99.9% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Walsall 14.5% 66.8% 33.0% 99.8% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Doncaster 10.0% 50.7% 48.7% 99.5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AFC Wimbledon 1.5% 15.6% 77.1% 92.7% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Notts Co 0.6% 10.0% 77.7% 87.7% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grimsby 0.0% 0.9% 53.3% 54.2% 99.9% 0.1% 0.0%
Colchester 0.0% 0.3% 34.1% 34.5% 99.7% 0.3% 0.0%
Chesterfield 0.0% 0.0% 15.9% 16.0% 98.2% 1.8% 0.0%
Salford 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 11.3% 95.5% 4.5% 0.0%
Crewe 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% 4.3% 87.9% 12.1% 0.0%
Swindon 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 52.1% 47.9% 0.0%
Fleetwood 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30.1% 69.9% 0.0%
Bromley 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.8% 82.2% 0.0%
Barrow 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.9% 83.1% 0.0%
Cheltenham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% 98.2% 0.0%
Gillingham 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0%
MK Dons 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.3%
Newport 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.3%
Harrogate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.7%
Tranmere 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2.6%
Accrington 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 8.7%
Carlisle 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 91.3%
Morecambe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 96.1%

What is BETSiE?

BETSiE England League 2 projections takes into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.

BETSiE England League 2 projections takes into account the following match data:

  • Goals For / Against
  • Shots For / Against
  • Shots on Target For / Against

Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.

Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.

Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the League One fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the League One season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.

Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.


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