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We’ve decided to unveil BETSiE and her England League 2 projections and table prediction here at bettingexpert to help our readers navigate the choppiest of fourth tier waters during the 2024/25 season.
And what is BETSiE? She’s bettingexpert’s in-house data projection model that takes in all sorts of different underlying metrics such as xG/xGA alongside a whole host of other secret ingredients. From there, she’ll run thousands of simulations of specific fixtures to generate match outcomes and league tables.
The Latest BETSiE England League 2 Projections
he projected goal totals for England League 2 matchday 40 (April 1-2) suggest a mix of high-scoring and balanced games. Newport vs. Bromley remains the highest expected goal total at 3.03, closely followed by Notts County vs. MK Dons at 3.02.
Home win probabilities vary, with Chesterfield having the highest chance at 50.7%, while Tranmere has the lowest at 40.7%.
Walsall (46.7%) and Bradford City (26.1%) remain favourites to win the league, while Morecambe (83.7%) and Carlisle (94.8%) are most likely to face relegation.
Projected England League 2 Matchday 40 Goal Totals: April 1st – 2nd
| HOME | AWAY | HGF | AGF | GD | GT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington | Fleetwood | 1.27 | 1.22 | 0.05 | 2.49 |
| Barrow | Salford | 1.64 | 1.17 | 0.47 | 2.81 |
| Chesterfield | Carlisle | 1.78 | 1.17 | 0.62 | 2.95 |
| Crewe | Grimsby | 1.49 | 1.28 | 0.21 | 2.77 |
| Doncaster | Walsall | 1.59 | 1.25 | 0.34 | 2.84 |
| Gillingham | Colchester | 1.43 | 1.28 | 0.15 | 2.71 |
| Harrogate | Tranmere | 1.57 | 1.39 | 0.18 | 2.96 |
| Morecambe | Cheltenham | 1.69 | 1.28 | 0.41 | 2.97 |
| Newport | Bromley | 1.60 | 1.43 | 0.18 | 3.03 |
| Notts Co | MK Dons | 1.80 | 1.22 | 0.58 | 3.02 |
| Port Vale | Bradford City | 1.33 | 1.28 | 0.05 | 2.61 |
| Swindon | AFC Wimbledon | 1.34 | 1.08 | 0.26 | 2.42 |
BETSiE England League 2 Goal Total abbreviations: HGF: Home Goals For – AGF: Away Goals For – GD: Goal Difference – GT: Goal Total.
England League 2 Matchday 40 Projections: April 1st – 2nd
| Home | Away | Home % | Draw % | Away % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington | Fleetwood | 36.70% | 28.8% | 34.5% |
| Barrow | Salford | 47.30% | 26.1% | 26.6% |
| Chesterfield | Carlisle | 50.70% | 24.9% | 24.4% |
| Crewe | Grimsby | 41.20% | 27.0% | 31.9% |
| Doncaster | Walsall | 44.2% | 26.3% | 29.4% |
| Gillingham | Colchester | 39.8% | 27.4% | 32.9% |
| Harrogate | Tranmere | 40.7% | 26.0% | 33.2% |
| Morecambe | Cheltenham | 45.9% | 25.5% | 28.5% |
| Newport | Bromley | 40.9% | 25.7% | 33.4% |
| Notts Co | MK Dons | 49.8% | 24.8% | 25.5% |
| Port Vale | Bradford City | 37.20% | 28.00% | 34.80% |
| Swindon | AFC Wimbledon | 41.60% | 29.00% | 29.40% |
BETSiE England League 2 Projections abbreviations: Home Win %: BETSiE’s Projected Probability of Home Win – Draw %: Projected Probability of Draw – Away Win %: Projected Probability of Away Win.
BETSiE’s Projected England League 2 Table Prediction
| # | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Walsall | 46 | 22.8 | 12.9 | 10.3 | 78.0 | 52.9 | 25.1 | 81.3 |
| 2 | Bradford City | 46 | 22.7 | 11.9 | 11.4 | 61.5 | 41.0 | 20.6 | 79.9 |
| 3 | Doncaster | 46 | 22.3 | 11.1 | 12.6 | 69.4 | 54.8 | 14.5 | 78.0 |
| 4 | Port Vale | 46 | 20.6 | 14.9 | 10.5 | 58.9 | 47.6 | 11.3 | 76.8 |
| 5 | Notts Co | 46 | 20.9 | 12.8 | 12.3 | 69.2 | 48.7 | 20.5 | 75.5 |
| 6 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 20.5 | 12.9 | 12.5 | 61.1 | 38.0 | 23.1 | 74.6 |
| 7 | Grimsby | 46 | 21.6 | 6.9 | 17.5 | 63.9 | 64.6 | -0.7 | 71.8 |
| 8 | Crewe | 46 | 16.6 | 17.9 | 11.5 | 54.7 | 48.4 | 6.3 | 67.7 |
| 9 | Colchester | 46 | 16.6 | 17.9 | 11.5 | 56.7 | 48.6 | 8.1 | 67.6 |
| 10 | Chesterfield | 46 | 18.4 | 12.2 | 15.4 | 71.0 | 53.7 | 17.3 | 67.4 |
| 11 | Salford | 46 | 17.7 | 13.1 | 15.2 | 58.2 | 55.3 | 2.9 | 66.3 |
| 12 | Fleetwood | 46 | 15.6 | 15.9 | 14.5 | 62.9 | 57.7 | 5.2 | 62.7 |
| 13 | Bromley | 46 | 15.3 | 14.8 | 15.9 | 60.2 | 60.7 | -0.6 | 60.6 |
| 14 | Cheltenham | 46 | 15.2 | 12.8 | 18.0 | 60.2 | 68.0 | -7.8 | 58.4 |
| 15 | Swindon | 46 | 13.8 | 16.9 | 15.3 | 64.7 | 64.5 | 0.2 | 58.4 |
| 16 | Barrow | 46 | 15.8 | 10.9 | 19.3 | 53.1 | 54.9 | -1.8 | 58.3 |
| 17 | MK Dons | 46 | 15.3 | 8.8 | 21.8 | 60.3 | 69.5 | -9.2 | 54.8 |
| 18 | Gillingham | 46 | 13.8 | 13.2 | 19.0 | 42.7 | 51.3 | -8.6 | 54.5 |
| 19 | Newport | 46 | 15.1 | 8.8 | 22.1 | 57.4 | 75.7 | -18.3 | 54.2 |
| 20 | Accrington | 46 | 12.4 | 14.0 | 19.6 | 53.4 | 63.9 | -10.6 | 51.1 |
| 21 | Harrogate | 46 | 13.4 | 10.8 | 21.8 | 39.7 | 59.8 | -20.1 | 50.9 |
| 22 | Tranmere | 46 | 11.5 | 14.9 | 19.6 | 39.8 | 65.1 | -25.3 | 49.3 |
| 23 | Morecambe | 46 | 11.6 | 7.8 | 26.6 | 44.7 | 67.7 | -22.9 | 42.7 |
| 24 | Carlisle | 46 | 9.5 | 11.8 | 24.7 | 40.3 | 69.6 | -29.3 | 40.4 |
BETSiE England League 2 Projections: Finish Probabilities
| Club | Win League | Top 2 Finish | Playoffs | Top 6 Finish | Top Half Finish | Bottom Half Finish | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walsall | 46.7% | 86.4% | 13.5% | 99.9% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bradford City | 26.1% | 73.8% | 25.8% | 99.6% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Doncaster | 13.4% | 51.5% | 45.5% | 97.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Port Vale | 6.5% | 34.6% | 60.9% | 95.5% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Notts Co | 4.3% | 28.1% | 64.6% | 92.7% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| AFC Wimbledon | 2.7% | 20.8% | 68.4% | 89.2% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grimsby | 0.2% | 3.7% | 53.5% | 57.2% | 99.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Crewe | 0.0% | 0.3% | 18.5% | 18.7% | 94.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| Colchester | 0.0% | 0.3% | 17.9% | 18.2% | 94.6% | 5.4% | 0.0% |
| Chesterfield | 0.0% | 0.4% | 19.8% | 20.2% | 94.1% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| Salford | 0.0% | 0.2% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 86.1% | 13.9% | 0.0% |
| Fleetwood | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 58.7% | 41.3% | 0.0% |
| Bromley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 28.4% | 71.6% | 0.0% |
| Cheltenham | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 10.8% | 89.2% | 0.0% |
| Swindon | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 15.0% | 85.0% | 0.0% |
| Barrow | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 13.5% | 86.5% | 0.0% |
| MK Dons | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 98.6% | 0.2% |
| Gillingham | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 98.0% | 0.4% |
| Newport | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 99.0% | 0.5% |
| Accrington | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 99.9% | 3.1% |
| Harrogate | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 5.7% |
| Tranmere | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 11.6% |
| Morecambe | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 83.7% |
| Carlisle | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 94.8% |
What is BETSiE?
BETSiE England League 2 projections takes into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.
BETSiE England League 2 projections takes into account the following match data:
- Goals For / Against
- Shots For / Against
- Shots on Target For / Against
Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.
Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.
Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the League One fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the League One season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.
Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.
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