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We’ve decided to unveil BETSiE and her England League 1 projections and table prediction here at bettingexpert in a bid to assist our readers throughout the 2024/25 season. Will Wrexham and Stockport make it successive promotions? Can Birmingham bounce back at the first time of asking?
And what is BETSiE? She’s bettingexpert’s in-house data projection model that takes in all sorts of different underlying metrics such as xG/xGA alongside a whole host of other secret ingredients. From there, she’ll run thousands of simulations of specific fixtures to generate match outcomes and league tables.
The Latest BETSiE England League 1 Projections
Birmingham are all but guaranteed to win the League One title in 2024, boasting a 99.9% probability of finishing top despite having a game still to play. Wrexham are in pole position for the second automatic promotion spot, with a 61.5% chance of securing a top-two finish, though Wycombe remain in contention at 29.8%.
Charlton and Stockport County are strong playoff contenders, each with over 80% probability of finishing in the top six, while Huddersfield also look set for a playoff push. Meanwhile, Stevenage are favoured over Lincoln and Barnsley for a top-half finish. At the other end of the table, Shrewsbury and Cambridge United are facing near-certain relegation, with survival looking highly unlikely.
Birmingham are heavy favourites to extend their dominance when they host relegation-threatened Shrewsbury, with a 70.9% chance of victory. Wrexham face a tricky away test against Exeter, while Stockport County have a strong opportunity to cement their playoff push against struggling Burton.
Elsewhere, Blackpool vs Bolton and Reading vs Peterborough could prove pivotal in the battle for the top six.
Projected England League 1 Matchday 39 Goal Totals: March 27th-29th
| HOME | AWAY | HGF | AGF | GD | GT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | Shrewsbury | 2.01 | 0.59 | 1.42 | 2.60 |
| Blackpool | Bolton | 1.75 | 1.55 | 0.20 | 3.29 |
| Bristol Rovers | Mansfield | 1.50 | 1.56 | -0.06 | 3.05 |
| Cambridge Utd | Northampton | 1.40 | 1.28 | 0.12 | 2.68 |
| Charlton | Huddersfield | 1.32 | 1.21 | 0.12 | 2.53 |
| Exeter | Wrexham | 1.15 | 1.28 | -0.13 | 2.43 |
| Leyton Orient | Stevenage | 1.35 | 1.09 | 0.26 | 2.45 |
| Reading | Peterborough | 1.66 | 1.30 | 0.36 | 2.96 |
| Rotherham | Crawley | 2.06 | 1.21 | 0.85 | 3.27 |
| Stockport County | Burton | 1.81 | 0.75 | 1.06 | 2.56 |
| Wigan | Barnsley | 1.33 | 1.39 | -0.06 | 2.72 |
| Wycombe | Lincoln | 1.33 | 1.07 | 0.26 | 2.40 |
BETSiE England League 1 Goal Total abbreviations: HGF: Home Goals For – AGF: Away Goals For – GD: Goal Difference – GT: Goal Total.
England League 1 Matchday 39 Projections: March 27th-29th
| Home | Away | Home % | Draw % | Away % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | Shrewsbury | 70.90% | 19.3% | 9.90% |
| Blackpool | Bolton | 42.80% | 22.9% | 34.3% |
| Bristol Rovers | Mansfield | 36.7% | 24.1% | 39.2% |
| Cambridge Utd | Northampton | 39.9% | 25.9% | 34.2% |
| Charlton | Huddersfield | 39.4% | 26.7% | 33.9% |
| Exeter | Wrexham | 33.10% | 27.40% | 39.60% |
| Leyton Orient | Stevenage | 42.70% | 27.1% | 30.2% |
| Reading | Peterborough | 45.80% | 24.1% | 30.1% |
| Rotherham | Crawley | 57.1% | 21.1% | 21.9% |
| Stockport County | Burton | 62.5% | 22.4% | 15.0% |
| Wigan | Barnsley | 35.7% | 25.7% | 38.6% |
| Wycombe | Lincoln | 42.70% | 27.30% | 30.00% |
England League 1 table prediction abbreviations: Home Win %: BETSiE’s Projected Probability of Home Win – Draw %: Projected Probability of Draw – Away Win %: Projected Probability of Away Win.
BETSiE’s Projected England League 1 Table Prediction
| # | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 46 | 31.2 | 10.2 | 4.6 | 77.5 | 32.1 | 45.4 | 103.7 |
| 2 | Wrexham | 46 | 25.3 | 10.1 | 10.6 | 63.1 | 39.4 | 23.7 | 86.1 |
| 3 | Wycombe | 46 | 23.3 | 13.4 | 9.3 | 75.1 | 47.1 | 27.9 | 83.3 |
| 4 | Charlton | 46 | 22.4 | 11.1 | 12.5 | 60.1 | 44.0 | 16.1 | 78.4 |
| 5 | Stockport County | 46 | 21.8 | 13.1 | 11.1 | 64.3 | 42.8 | 21.5 | 78.4 |
| 6 | Huddersfield | 46 | 22.2 | 9.2 | 14.6 | 65.9 | 44.2 | 21.8 | 75.9 |
| 7 | Bolton | 46 | 21.8 | 8.2 | 16.0 | 73.3 | 67.3 | 5.9 | 73.7 |
| 8 | Reading | 46 | 19.4 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 65.2 | 59.1 | 6.0 | 71.5 |
| 9 | Leyton Orient | 46 | 20.3 | 7.3 | 18.4 | 65.1 | 50.5 | 14.6 | 68.2 |
| 10 | Blackpool | 46 | 16.2 | 16.9 | 12.9 | 69.8 | 62.0 | 7.7 | 65.5 |
| 11 | Barnsley | 46 | 18.3 | 9.9 | 17.8 | 64.5 | 65.4 | -0.8 | 64.8 |
| 12 | Lincoln | 46 | 15.8 | 13.1 | 17.1 | 62.7 | 55.3 | 7.4 | 60.5 |
| 13 | Stevenage | 46 | 15.8 | 12.4 | 17.8 | 45.1 | 50.2 | -5.0 | 59.8 |
| 14 | Rotherham | 46 | 15.9 | 11.1 | 19.0 | 57.0 | 57.6 | -0.6 | 58.9 |
| 15 | Exeter | 46 | 14.8 | 11.3 | 19.8 | 50.6 | 63.8 | -13.2 | 55.9 |
| 16 | Wigan | 46 | 14.4 | 12.7 | 19.0 | 44.9 | 49.2 | -4.3 | 55.8 |
| 17 | Mansfield | 46 | 15.2 | 10.1 | 20.7 | 55.6 | 64.8 | -9.2 | 55.7 |
| 18 | Peterborough | 46 | 14.8 | 11.2 | 20.0 | 67.5 | 74.3 | -6.7 | 55.6 |
| 19 | Northampton | 46 | 12.9 | 14.1 | 19.1 | 47.3 | 66.8 | -19.5 | 52.6 |
| 20 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 14.3 | 7.8 | 23.9 | 49.0 | 74.7 | -25.8 | 50.7 |
| 21 | Burton | 46 | 10.2 | 14.2 | 21.6 | 47.2 | 67.3 | -20.2 | 44.9 |
| 22 | Crawley | 46 | 10.7 | 10.9 | 24.4 | 50.3 | 83.1 | -32.8 | 42.9 |
| 23 | Cambridge Utd | 46 | 9.5 | 11 | 25.5 | 45.6 | 74 | -28.4 | 39.4 |
| 24 | Shrewsbury | 46 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 27.2 | 43.6 | 75.2 | -31.6 | 38.0 |
BETSiE England League 1 Projections: Finish Probabilities
| Club | Win League | Top 2 Finish | Playoffs | Top 6 Finish | Top Half Finish | Bottom Half Finish | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 99.9% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wrexham | 0.1% | 61.5% | 38.4% | 99.9% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wycombe | 0.0% | 29.8% | 68.8% | 98.7% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlton | 0.0% | 3.7% | 82.0% | 85.7% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stockport County | 0.0% | 3.7% | 82.9% | 86.6% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Huddersfield | 0.0% | 1.0% | 66.4% | 67.4% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bolton | 0.0% | 0.2% | 36.2% | 36.4% | 99.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Reading | 0.0% | 0.0% | 17.7% | 17.7% | 99.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Leyton Orient | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 96.7% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Blackpool | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 88.2% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| Barnsley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 82.2% | 17.8% | 0.0% |
| Lincoln | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 44.1% | 55.9% | 0.0% |
| Stevenage | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 31.0% | 69.0% | 0.0% |
| Rotherham | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 28.1% | 71.9% | 0.0% |
| Exeter | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.3% | 93.7% | 0.1% |
| Wigan | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.5% | 90.5% | 0.1% |
| Mansfield | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.7% | 93.3% | 0.1% |
| Peterborough | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.0% | 93.0% | 0.1% |
| Northampton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 99.2% | 1.4% |
| Bristol Rovers | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 99.8% | 3.2% |
| Burton | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 38.2% |
| Crawley | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 70.7% |
| Cambridge Utd | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 90.6% |
| Shrewsbury | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 95.4% |
What is BETSiE?
BETSiE England League 1 projections takes into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.
BETSiE England League 1 projections takes into account the following match data:
- Goals For / Against
- Shots For / Against
- Shots on Target For / Against
Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.
Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.
Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the League One fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the League One season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.
Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.
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