Football 
Tennis 
Horse Racing BETSiE Bundesliga Projections
We’ve decided to let the cat, BETSiE, and her Bundesliga projections and table prediction out of the bag here at bettingexpert in a bid to assist our readers when it comes to predicting the Bundesliga in Germany.
What is BETSiE? She’s bettingexpert’s in-house data projection model that takes in all sorts of different underlying metrics such as xG/xGA alongside a whole host of other secret ingredients. From there, she’ll run thousands of simulations of specific fixtures to generate match outcomes and league tables.
The Latest BETSiE Bundesliga Projections
Bayern Munich remain almost certain to qualify for the Champions League (99.0%) and are guaranteed a top-six finish. Leverkusen are locked into the top four, while Frankfurt (93.5%) and Leipzig (57.1%) remain strong contenders. Mainz (19.0%) and Dortmund (13.6%) are outside hopefuls. Freiburg (9.3%) and Bremen (3.5%) face an uphill battle. Stuttgart, Gladbach, and Augsburg are likely to miss out, while Wolfsburg, Union Berlin, and Hoffenheim are virtually out of contention. At the bottom, Bochum, Heidenheim, and Holstein Kiel are all but relegated, with survival chances below 5%. St. Pauli are clinging on with a slim 0.1% chance.
Projected Bundesliga Matchday 30 Goal Totals: April 19th – 20th
| Home | Away | HGF | AGF | GD | GT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augsburg | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.01 | 1.35 | -0.34 | 2.37 |
| Dortmund | B. Monchengladbach | 2.77 | 1.05 | 1.72 | 3.82 |
| Freiburg | Hoffenheim | 1.5 | 1.01 | 0.49 | 2.51 |
| Heidenheim | Bayern Munich | 0.84 | 2.36 | -1.52 | 3.2 |
| Mainz | Wolfsburg | 1.78 | 1.21 | 0.57 | 2.98 |
| RB Leipzig | Holstein Kiel | 2.31 | 0.81 | 1.5 | 3.12 |
| St. Pauli | Bayer Leverkusen | 0.7 | 1.35 | -0.65 | 2.04 |
| Union Berlin | Stuttgart | 1.45 | 1.57 | -0.12 | 3.02 |
| Werder Bremen | Bochum | 1.9 | 1.04 | 0.86 | 2.93 |
Bundesliga table prediction abbreviations: HGF: Home Goals For – AGF: Away Goals For – GD: Goal Difference – GT: Goal Total.
Bundesliga Matchday 30 Projections: April 19th – 20th
| HOME | AWAY | Home Win % | Draw % | Away Win % |
| Augsburg | Eintracht Frankfurt | 29.0% | 24.9% | 46.2% |
| Dortmund | B. Monchengladbach | 74.8% | 13.3% | 11.9% |
| Freiburg | Hoffenheim | 50.2% | 23.5% | 26.3% |
| Heidenheim | Bayern Munich | 11.8% | 15.3% | 72.9% |
| Mainz | Wolfsburg | 52.4% | 21.0% | 26.6% |
| RB Leipzig | Holstein Kiel | 72.8% | 15.6% | 11.6% |
| St. Pauli | Bayer Leverkusen | 19.9% | 25.8% | 54.3% |
| Union Berlin | Stuttgart | 36.3% | 21.8% | 41.9% |
| Werder Bremen | Bochum | 59.2% | 20.0% | 20.9% |
Bundesliga table prediction abbreviations: Home Win %: BETSiE’s Projected Probability of Home Win – Draw %: Projected Probability of Draw – Away Win %: Projected Probability of Away Win.
BETSiE’s Projected Bundesliga Table Prediction
| # | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | pts |
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 34 | 24.5 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 95.2 | 33.6 | 61.5 | 80.3 |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 34 | 20.6 | 10.3 | 3.1 | 70.0 | 38.2 | 31.8 | 72.0 |
| 3 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | 17.4 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 66.4 | 48.1 | 18.3 | 59.4 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 15.1 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 55.1 | 44.5 | 10.6 | 55.3 |
| 5 | Mainz | 34 | 14.8 | 8.1 | 11.1 | 53.0 | 41.9 | 11.0 | 52.5 |
| 6 | Dortmund | 34 | 15.0 | 6.9 | 12.1 | 64.4 | 50.4 | 14.0 | 51.9 |
| 7 | Freiburg | 34 | 14.8 | 7.2 | 11.9 | 46.3 | 51.5 | -5.2 | 51.7 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 14.2 | 7.2 | 12.6 | 54.4 | 60.0 | -5.6 | 49.9 |
| 9 | B. Monchengladbach | 34 | 14.5 | 5.9 | 13.6 | 52.9 | 53.4 | -0.5 | 49.4 |
| 10 | Stuttgart | 34 | 13.4 | 8.1 | 12.5 | 60.5 | 52.3 | 8.2 | 48.4 |
| 11 | Augsburg | 34 | 12.5 | 10.3 | 11.2 | 37.8 | 46.3 | -8.5 | 47.9 |
| 12 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 13.1 | 58.1 | 52.9 | 5.1 | 44.5 |
| 13 | Union Berlin | 34 | 11.0 | 8.2 | 14.8 | 32.8 | 46.4 | -13.6 | 41.1 |
| 14 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 8.2 | 10.1 | 15.6 | 41.4 | 60.6 | -19.2 | 34.8 |
| 15 | St. Pauli | 34 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 18.5 | 29.9 | 42.4 | -12.5 | 34.2 |
| 16 | Heidenheim | 34 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 21.6 | 37.8 | 65.0 | -27.2 | 27.1 |
| 17 | Bochum | 34 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 21.3 | 35.1 | 68.9 | -33.8 | 25.7 |
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 34 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 21.9 | 44.8 | 79.3 | -34.6 | 22.2 |
League Finish Probabilities
| Club | Win League | Top 4 | Top 5 | Top Half | Bottom Half | Relegation | Relegation PO |
| Bayern Munich | 99.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 1.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 0.0% | 93.5% | 97.7% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| RB Leipzig | 0.0% | 57.1% | 77.2% | 99.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mainz | 0.0% | 19.0% | 40.4% | 93.8% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dortmund | 0.0% | 13.6% | 34.8% | 91.6% | 8.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Freiburg | 0.0% | 9.3% | 24.0% | 84.7% | 15.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Werder Bremen | 0.0% | 3.5% | 10.4% | 66.6% | 33.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| B. Monchengladbach | 0.0% | 1.7% | 7.2% | 63.5% | 36.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stuttgart | 0.0% | 1.7% | 5.8% | 52.9% | 47.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Augsburg | 0.0% | 0.4% | 2.0% | 35.5% | 64.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wolfsburg | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 11.3% | 88.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Union Berlin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 99.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hoffenheim | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 2.2% |
| St. Pauli | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.1% | 3.0% |
| Heidenheim | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 36.3% | 60.1% |
| Bochum | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 67.8% | 30.5% |
| Holstein Kiel | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 95.8% | 4.10% |
WHAT IS BETSiE and Her Bundesliga Projections?
BETSiE projects the entire Bundesliga season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.
BETSiE takes into account the following match data:
- Goals For / Against
- Shots For / Against
- Shots on Target For / Against
Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.
Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.
Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the Bundesliga fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the Bundesliga season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.
Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.
SAFER GAMBLING
At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.
