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Analysis | Friday, September 22, 2023 12:17 PM (Revised at: Wednesday, July 31, 2024 8:51 AM)

Ballon d’Or Winner Odds: Keep An Eye on Rodri

Ballon d’Or Winner Odds: Keep An Eye on Rodri
MLS, Fussball Herren, USA Noche D or-New York City FC at Inter Miami Nov 10, 2023; Lauderdale, FL, USA; Inter Miami forward Lionel Messi (10) poses with the Ballon d Or trophy before the game against New York City at DRV PNK Stadium. Lauderdale DRV PNK Stadium FL USA

Following the end of Euro 2024 and Copa America, the anticipation for football’s biggest accolade is building, as the Ballon d’Or winner odds start to take shape. And with it, the debate over who truly deserves the title of the world’s best footballer is reaching fever pitch. 

For the first time over almost two decades neither Lionel Messi nor Cristiano Ronaldo are among the top three favourites, as one name stands out: Manchester City and Spain midfielder Rodri. 

With standout performances on both the club and international stages, Rodri is making a compelling case for why he should be awarded football’s most prestigious individual accolade.

Our expert, Daniele Fisichella, details the Ballon d’Or odds betting landscape, the favourites, the accolade’s stats and facts, as well as a list of previous winners of the trophy.

In this article: 

  • Ballon d’Or Winner Odds 2024
  • Vinicius Junior Ballon d’Or winner odds
  • Rodri Ballon d’Or winner odds
  • Jude Bellingham Ballon d’Or winner odds
  • Ballon d’Or Stats and Facts
  • Ballon d’Or Previous Winners List (1956-2023)
  • Ballon d’Or Frequently Asked Questions

However, despite being named Player of the Tournament in Germany, the Spaniard is not the main favourite for the award. In fact, Real Madrid’s Vinicius is considered the front-runner, thanks to his extraordinary season that led ‘Los Blancos’ to Champions League triumph.

Disappointing performances at Euro 2024 have seen Jude Bellingham slip into third position, with teenage sensation Lamine Yamal’s breakout season propelling him past the likes of Messi, Kylian Mbappe, and Erling Haaland.


Ballon d’Or Winner Odds 2024: Rodri coming up the outside

Player Odds Implied Probability
Vinicius Junior 2.00 50%
Rodri 2.75 34.4%
Jude Bellingham 5.00 20%
Dani Carvajal 11.00 9.1%
Lamine Yamal 19.00 5.3%
Lionel Messi 21.00 4.8%
Kylian Mbappe 34.00 2.9%
Lautaro Martinez 34.00 2.9%
Nico Williams 34.00 2.9%
Harry Kane 41.00 2.4%
Phil Foden 41.00 2.4%
Toni Kroos 41.00 2.4%
Erling Haaland 67.00 1.5%

 

Ballon d’Or Winner Odds via bet365 as at 09:22 Wednesday 31st July 2024. Odds may now differ.


Vinicus Junior Ballon d’Or winner odds

Real Madrid winger Vinicius Jr., 24, has been a standout candidate for the Ballon d’Or, largely due to his pivotal role in securing La Liga and the Champions League titles for his team. 

Despite a slow start to the season following Karim Benzema’s departure and early injury troubles, Vinicius found his form, scoring a hat-trick in the Spanish Super Cup final against Barcelona and consistently performing in La Liga.

Vinicius’s most notable contributions came in the Champions League. He was the standout player in both legs of Real Madrid’s semi-final victory over Bayern Munich and shone brightly in the final at Wembley, scoring the second goal in the win over Borussia Dortmund.

However, his summer did not go as planned. After scoring twice in the Copa America group stages, Vinicius was suspended for the quarter-final against Uruguay due to accumulated yellow cards. 

From the sidelines, he watched Brazil’s painful exit on penalties. This misfortune may open the door for another contender to claim the prize.

Rodri Ballon d’Or winner odds

Since the start of 2023, Rodri has only experienced defeat in four matches and has added eight trophies to his collection. His dominance is not solely due to his individual brilliance but also his ability to elevate those around him. This unique quality is evident in how his presence enhances the performance of his teammates, making Manchester City and Spain formidable forces.

Despite these achievements, defensive midfielders often find themselves overlooked in favour of more attacking players for individual awards. 

In fact, the last defensive midfielder to win the prize was Germany’s Matthias Sammer in 1996, after his country won the Euros.

But If the Ballon d’Or is truly about recognisng the best player over the past year, Rodri’s name should be at the forefront of the conversation.

Jude Bellingham Ballon d’Or winner odds

Jude Bellingham’s debut season with Real Madrid has been nothing short of spectacular. 

The 21-year-old midfielder, who joined from Borussia Dortmund last summer, was instrumental in securing a La Liga and Champions League double for Los Blancos.

Bellingham scored 23 goals and provided 13 assists, with standout performances including late winners in both La Liga clashes with Barcelona. His impact extended to the Champions League, where his decisive play helped Madrid overcome Manchester City.

At Euro 2024 Bellingham produced a magnificent overhead kick against Slovakia in the last 16, but his overall performance was below par. 

Despite missing some games in early 2024 due to injury and suspension, Bellingham’s overall contributions have reignited his Ballon d’Or bid. 

If he were to win, he would come close to breaking the record for the youngest-ever recipient, a testament to his extraordinary talent and influence in his first season in Madrid.


Ballon d’Or Stats and Facts

  • Lionel Messi (8) and Cristiano Ronaldo (5) have dominated the Ballon d’Or, each winning it on multiple occasions.
  • Luka Modrić muscled into the Lionel Messi-Cristiano Ronaldo monopoly of the award in 2018, becoming the first player other than Messi or Ronaldo to win the accolade since 2007.
  • Messi also holds the record for the most consecutive Ballon d’Or wins, securing four titles between 2009 and 2012.
  • Since 1990, only six non-strikers (Lothar Matthaus, Matthias Sammer, Pavel Nedved, Fabio Cannavaro, Kakà and Luca Modric) have won the Ballon d’Or.
  • The award was cancelled for the first time in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. If it had gone ahead, Robert Lewandowski of Bayern Munich/Bundesliga fame looked poised to notch his first-ever Ballon d’Or.
  • Lionel Messi wasn’t included in the top three nominees in 2022 for the first time since 2006.
  • Lev Yashin is the only goalkeeper to win the Ballon d’Or, having done so in 1963 as a Dynamo Moscow player.
  • Johan Cruyff was the first player to win the Ballon d’Or three times.
  • George Weah, the only African recipient, was the first non-European to win the Ballon d’Or.
  • Ronaldo Nazario, a two-time winner, is the youngest player ever to win the Ballon d’Or.

Ballon d’Or all time Winners List (From 1956-2023):

Year Player Club, and Country
2023 Lionel Messi Inter Miami, formerly Paris Saint-Germain, Argentina
2022 Karim Benzema Real Madrid, France
2021 Lionel Messi Paris Saint-Germain, formerly Barcelona, Argentina
2020 Award Cancelled due to COVID-19 N/A
2019 Lionel Messi Barcelona, Argentina
2018 Luka Modrić Real Madrid, Croatia
2017 Cristiano Ronaldo Real Madrid, Portugal
2016 Cristiano Ronaldo Real Madrid, Portugal
2015 Lionel Messi Barcelona, Argentina
2014 Cristiano Ronaldo Real Madrid, Portugal
2013 Cristiano Ronaldo Real Madrid, Portugal
2012 Lionel Messi Barcelona, Argentina
2011 Lionel Messi Barcelona, Argentina
2010 Lionel Messi Barcelona, Argentina
2009 Lionel Messi Barcelona, Argentina
2008 Cristiano Ronaldo Manchester United, Portugal
2007 Kaká Milan, Brazil
2006 Fabio Cannavaro Real Madrid, Italy
2005 Ronaldinho Barcelona, Brazil
2004 Andriy Shevchenko Milan, Ukraine
2003 Pavel Nedvěd Juventus, Czechia
2002 Ronaldo Real Madrid, Brazil
2001 Michael Owen Liverpool, England
2000 Luís Figo Real Madrid, Portugal
1999 Rivaldo Barcelona, Brazil
1998 Zinedine Zidane Juventus, France
1997 Ronaldo Internazionale, Brazil
1996 Matthias Sammer Borussia Dortmund, Germany
1995 George Weah Milan, Liberia
1994 Hristo Stoichkov Barcelona, Bulgaria
1993 Roberto Baggio Juventus, Italy
1992 Marco van Basten Milan, Netherlands
1991 Jean-Pierre Papin Marseille, France
1990 Lothar Matthäus Internazionale, Germany
1989 Marco van Basten Milan, Netherlands
1988 Marco van Basten Milan, Netherlands
1987 Ruud Gullit Milan, Netherlands
1986 Igor Belanov Dynamo Kyiv, Soviet Union
1985 Michel Platini Juventus, France
1984 Michel Platini Juventus, France
1983 Michel Platini Juventus, France
1982 Paolo Rossi Juventus, Italy
1981 Karl-Heinz Rummenigge Bayern Munich, West Germany
1980 Karl-Heinz Rummenigge Bayern Munich, West Germany
1979 Kevin Keegan Hamburg, England
1978 Kevin Keegan Hamburg, England
1977 Allan Simonsen Borussia Monchengladbach, Denmark
1976 Franz Beckenbauer Bayern Munich, West Germany
1975 Oleg Blokhin Dynamo Kyiv, Soviet Union
1974 Johan Cruyff Barcelona, Netherlands
1973 Johan Cruyff Barcelona, Netherlands
1972 Franz Beckenbauer Bayern Munich, West Germany
1971 Johan Cruyff Ajax, Netherlands
1970 Gerd Müller Bayern Munich, West Germany
1969 Gianni Rivera Milan, Italy
1968 George Best Manchester United, Northern Ireland
1967 Flórián Albert Ferencvarosi TC, Hungary
1966 Bobby Charlton Manchester United, England
1965 Eusébio Benfica, Portugal
1964 Denis Law Manchester United, Scotland
1963 Lev Yashin Dynamo Moscow, Soviet Union
1962 Josef Masopust Dukla Prague, Czechoslovakia
1961 Omar Sívori Juventus, Italy
1960 Luis Suárez Barcelona, Spain
1959 Alfredo Di Stéfano Real Madrid, Argentina
1958 Raymond Kopa Real Madrid, France
1957 Alfredo Di Stéfano Real Madrid, Argentina
1956 Stanley Matthews Blackpool, England

Ballon d’Or Frequently Asked Questions:

What is the Ballon d’Or? 

The Ballon d’Or, awarded annually by France Football magazine, is one of football’s most prestigious individual honours. Established in 1956, it recognizes the world’s best male player based on votes from international journalists. Initially for European players only, it has expanded in 1995 to include players globally.

Who has the most Ballon d’Or wins

Who has the most Ballon d’Or wins, we hear you ask? Considering it has been awarded to players since 1956, you’d assume there would be someone close to Lionel Messi’s seven Ballon d’Or triumphs. Well, in short, there isn’t.

The Argentinian is the most decorated Ballon d’Or winner ever.

How is the Ballon d’Or winner decided?

The Ballon d’Or winner is chosen through a voting process. From 1956 to 2006, football journalists worldwide voted. After 2007, national team coaches, captains, and a journalist from each FIFA nation also voted. Voters rank their top three players in order of preference.

How many Ballon d’Or wins does Messi have?

When discussing the Ballon d’Or in recent times, Lionel is never too far from the conversation, but how many Ballon d’Or wins does Messi have? Eight.

It’s a remarkable feat. It’s something we’ll likely never see again from one player. The longevity and world-class level of performance in equal measure is a sight to behold

How many Ballon d’Or wins does Ronaldo have?

So, Messi has eight, but how many Ballon d’Or wins does Ronaldo have? After all, they were nemesis to some extent – neck and neck to any metric and personal accolade during their career. If the history books are to look back and judge talent on the number of Ballon d’Or lifts, they’ll look a little less favourably on Ronaldo’s five.


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