UFC 249 | Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Tony Ferguson Prediction & Betting Tips - bettingexpert
Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Tony Ferguson Preview | UFC 249
Here we go! Khabib vs Ferguson is official for the fifth time, will it finally happen? This fight takes place in the main event of UFC 249 on April 19th in the Barclays Center. Khabib, being the champion, will try to make his third title defense against “El Cucuy”. Let’s take a look at this long-anticipated lightweight showdown.
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Khabib “The Eagle” Nurmagomedov is one of the most gifted grapplers in UFC history. He holds the record for most takedowns landed in a single fight and ranks 5th in the company’s history for total takedowns landed. Nurmagomedov also ranks 6th in the UFC for the least significant strikes absorbed in his fights.
“The Eagle” is undefeated with a professional record of 28-0. His record inside the UFC is 12-0 with notable wins coming against Conor McGregor, Dustin Poirier, Rafael Dos Anjos, and Edson Barboza. Khabib has tremendous pressure and likes to back his opponents up against the fence before taking them down. Once he has them down, he uses his nasty ground and pound to maul his opponents. Khabib has excellent submission skills and has finished many of his fights by TKO. He also holds 10 decision wins.
If there’s one place Khabib is vulnerable, it’s on the feet. We saw Khabib slightly wobbled against Michael Johnson, Dustin Poirier and tagged against Conor McGregor. Ferguson will need to try to keep this fight standing if he wants to have his way with the champion. Ferguson has a takedown defense of 75%, which is higher than McGregors at 70%. In Khabib’s fight with McGregor, the Irishman managed to keep the fight on the feet in the third round, and actually won that round!
Khabib tends to slow down in the later rounds, due to his immense pressure which costs lots of energy. As a result of this, his takedowns get a little more sloppy in the later rounds.
Khabib’s last victory came against Dustin Poirier in September of 2019. Poirier put up a good fight but eventually succumbed to a rear-naked choke and tapped out in the third round. Before losing, Poirier managed to sink in a tight guillotine-choke of his own, but the champion remained composed and eventually got out.
Tony Ferguson
Now, looking at the challenger. Tony Ferguson currently on a 12 fight win streak where he’s beaten great competition such as Kevin Lee, Rafael Dos Anjos, Josh Thomson, Anthony Pettis, and Edson Barboza.
Ferguson is very unorthodox in his style. He throws crazy elbows, knees, kicks and has tremendous submission skills. Tony’s submission skills will be a very interesting factor in this fight. “El Cucuy” is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt under the acknowledged jiu-jitsu trainer Eddie Bravo. Tony holds 8 wins due to submission.
Very important to keep in mind is that Ferguson fought and beat lightweight Kevin Lee in 2017. Lee bears several similarities to Nurmagomedov, especially when it comes to grappling. Therefore, looking at how that fight played out can tell us a lot about how Ferguson fares against a strong wrestler.
In that fight, Ferguson spent the majority of the first round on his back as Lee dominated the fight with ground and pound. Ferguson, a skilled grappler, showed his composure and defended strikes until the round was over. In the second round, Ferguson started picking up the pace and eventually tired Lee out who shot for a takedown and ended up in a triangle choke.
The two most important factors in this fight are Ferguson’s pace and Khabibs second or third round tendencies. We’ve seen in Nurmagomedov’s fights that he likes to control the pace and win the first round by a mile, but his ground and pound is exhausting and therefore he tends to take a breather in rounds two or three. This is where Ferguson has his chance to utilize his forward pressure to give the champion a hard time.
In his fight against McGregor, Khabib lost the first round of his MMA career. He had beaten the Irishman badly in the second round and as a result, had to save some energy in the third. At 75% takedown defense, Ferguson has decent chances of keeping this fight on the feet where he will have the biggest advantage.
Compared to Khabib, Ferguson has a disadvantage with regard to strength. Ferguson has also been hurt a couple of times in his career, most recently being dropped to the canvas against Anthony Pettis. Many often discredit Khabib’s striking and his power and if he can catch Tony like he did McGregor, the fight could be over early.
Ferguson tends to come out ready to bang from the opening bell. He often takes control over the center of the octagon and pushes the pace on his opponents. If Ferguson can force Khabib against the fence, he can take away the takedown threat.
Ferguson is on a 12-fight win streak. Most recently, he beat Donald Cerrone in a one-sided fight, where the fight was stopped by the doctor, awarding Ferguson a TKO win. Before that, Ferguson had a great fight with Anthony Pettis, where he was actually dropped by “Showtime”. Ferguson, tough as he is, kept his composure before the fight was stopped by Pettis’ corner.
Prediction
This fight is extremely interesting and is possibly one of the biggest fights in the last few years for even casual fans. Stylistically, Ferguson will be Khabib’s biggest challenge to date. Ferguson’s grappling credentials and striking output will be tough for the champion to deal with and the submission threat will also be there. Ferguson has more ways to win, and if he can avoid enough takedowns, he has the striking to put the champion’s lights out.
What is really important for the Khabib vs Ferguson prediction, is to take betting value into consideration. Priced at around 3.00, Ferguson is a very big underdog, considering his chances in this fight. His jiu-jitsu coach, Eddie Bravo, recently opened up about their preparations for Khabib’s wrestling style. There’s no doubt that the submission threat will be there at all times, as long as Khabib tries to take Ferguson to the ground. Below here is our Khabib vs Ferguson prediction.
bettingexpert prediction: Khabib Nurmagomedov def. Tony Ferguson via unanimous decision.
Betting Tips
Odds updated 3/4/2020
Tony Ferguson To Win 3.50
- Ferguson has a great opportunity to become to new UFC lightweight champion. He has the striking, grappling and pressure to make this a tough fight for Khabib. At odds 3.00, he holds great value and should’ve been somewhere around a 2.25 dog.
Tony Ferguson To Win Inside The Distance TBA
- Odds have yet to be released, but Ferguson has a good opportunity to finish the fight. He has great takedown defense and striking to go along with it. Khabib rarely absorbs big punches, so you can be sure that the odds will be high. Let’s not forget his grappling and submission credentials either… If Poirier can get a guillotine on Khabib, so can Tony!
Khabib Nurmagomedov To Win On Points TBA
- Odds, have yet to be released, but we know Khabib has trouble finishing some of the tougher fighters, such as Edson Barboza. There is a high chance that Khabib will keep the entire fight on the ground to avoid striking with Ferguson, but as Tony is hard to finish It’ll eventually go to a decision in favor of the champ.
The Fight To End In A Draw TBA
- Another interesting take on a Ferguson vs Khabib prediction – this one really excites us, as you can be sure it’ll hold a lot of value. Both fighters are extremely high-level mixed martial artists and have a lot to lose in this fight. Both have incredible momentum and it’s hard to see either one losing any time soon. The chance for this fight ending in a draw is definitely higher than most times.
Giving Ferguson a 45% chance (odds 2.22) of winning this fight is appropriate since he has great grappling credentials and cardio. Currently, he is the dog in this fight at odds 3.00, meaning there’s an implied probability of 33% of him winning, which is not high enough. The value on the challenger is simply too high and picking him to beat the champion is an interesting bet in this lightweight showdown.
Fight Data
Key stats:
- Tony Ferguson’s 75% takedown defense.
- Tony Ferguson beat Kevin Lee.
- Ferguson has incredible cardio.
- Khabib tends to slow down in later rounds.
- The champion has record-breaking grappling.
- Khabib is undefeated.
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