UFC 249: Tony Ferguson vs Justin Gaethje prediction, picks, betting tips - bettingexpert

UFC 249: Tony Ferguson vs Justin Gaethje prediction, picks, betting tips

In the main event of UFC 249, Tony Ferguson takes on Justin Gaethje for the interim lightweight title. This is a hell of a fight between two of the toughest 155-pound fighters on the planet and we can’t wait to see how it plays out. Let’s have a look at predictions and betting tips for the fight.

The lowdown

After his initial opponent, Khabib Nurmagomedov, pulled out, Ferguson now faces Justin Gaethje as a replacement for the rescheduled UFC 249. If we focus on advantages for a bit, it’s clear that Ferguson has been in training camp for a longer period of time than Gaethje, giving him a great advantage. If you’re fighting Tony Ferguson, cardio needs to be a concern of yours, and when Justin Gaethje talks about he only has 18 minutes in him, it’s a bit concerning if you’re planning to bet on him.

Ferguson has incredible pace, output and is good anywhere the fight can go. Despite also being a well-rounded fight, Gaethje chooses to fight standing in all his fights and has refused to utilize his high-level wrestling so far in his career. This creates a bit of a problem for Gaethje, as he actively shuts off ways he can beat a guy like Ferguson and limits himself to one path to victory: via knockout. Ferguson, on the other hand, still allows himself to use all his tools such as his jiu-jitsu, wrestling and striking.

Gaethje might be a hard hitter but Ferguson has faced lots of those, and guess what, he hasn’t lost a fight in almost a decade. It’s hard to believe that Gaethje will bring something to the table that Ferguson doesn’t expect. Ferguson has 12 KO/TKO victories and he isn’t a stranger to fighting on the feet.

Fans have been praising Gaethje due to his current three-fight winning streak, but let’s not forget that it’s only two years since he was handed back to back knockout losses to Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier. He might have refined his striking and technique a little bit, but he is still a brawler by heart, and Ferguson is just too technical and smart for that. Tony has showcased incredible recovery in fights many times before. Most recently he was dropped by Anthony Pettis and came back to win the fight with a TKO-doctor stoppage.

Prediction time

We see it like this: Ferguson has all the ways to win, while Gaethje has to do what 28 professional fighters have failed to do. Is Gaethje a hard puncher? Sure, but so is Cerrone, Pettis, and Edson Barboza. We don’t consider these guys much less technical or inferior on the feet to Gaethje, so Ferguson will probably extend that 12-fight winning streak of his to 13.

Prediction: Tony Ferguson.

Betting guide

Who is the valued pick (H2H)?

We’ve talked about Ferguson’s amazing ability to recover, but it’s time to look at the other side of the coin. Ferguson has been dropped 5 times in his UFC career alone. If there is something to take away from his fights it is that he’s most vulnerable on the feet. Sure, it’s impressive that he always manages to come back after getting dropped, but it’s concerning when you’re pushing 37 and continuously taking hard hits in your fights. His striking has gotten better over the years, but he hasn’t managed to shake that tendency where he leans back and puts his chin in the air – we actually talked about the same with UFC heavyweight Greg Hardy who is also fighting on the UFC 249 card. Tony has been very open about not sparring for the majority of his career which is probably what has led to him not letting go of those “amateurish” tendencies. One could wonder whether Gaethje finds a way to exploit those tendencies. It’s worth noting that Gaethje has never gone the distance in his UFC career, win or lose. Gaethje’s style is to kill or be killed.

Ferguson’s striking isn’t really dangerous as Gaethje’s is either, and it has been 6 years since we’ve last seen him get a “legitimate” KO other than doctor stoppages. Sure a doctor stoppage also counts as a TKO, but he doesn’t have that one-punch KO power as Gaethje does. If Gaethje can be calm, collected, and technical like in his last 3 fights, he has a chance of catching that chin. Gaethje is about a 2.50 underdog (H2H) right now, which is decent value.

H2H betting tip: Justin Gaethje.

Prop bets with value

Let’s imagine Gaethje’s only way of winning is by KO (which it kinda is). Ok, now when will he do it? Well, statistics show that in round 1, the chance of a KO happening is much larger than other rounds, and the chance of a KO happening declines as the fights progresses. This would mean that Gaethje has the best chance of knocking out Ferguson in the first round. Therefore, we’re going with Gaethje by first-round KO as our valued prop bet for the UFC 249 main event.

Betting tip: Justin Gaethje wins in round 1 (odds somewhere around (7.50).