Sean O'Malley vs José Alberto Quiñónez prediction - bettingexpert

UFC 248 – Sean O’Malley vs Jose Quiñónez prediction

“Sugar” Sean O’Malley kicks off the main card at UFC 248 when he returns to the octagon from his six-month suspension to face Jose Quiñónez. UFC 248 goes down on March 8th in the T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas. This preview contains predictions and betting tips.

 

Sean O’Malley

“Sugar” Sean O’ Malley (10-0) made his claim to fame after winning his fight on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender series with an impressive knockout. O’Malley is only 25-years old and has won both of his two fights in the UFC by unanimous decision.

O’Malley is a fluid, unorthodox striker with innovative striking that stuns his opponents. We’ve seen him fake spinning elbows to land straight rights and other crazy stuff.

Sean likes to switch stances when he fights, which often renders opponents confused as to where the strikes are coming from. It also makes it significantly harder to pinpoint specific trends in a fighter’s style when he/she switches stances often. This is one of the things that makes O’Malley a great fighter.

Let’s look at some data. “Sugar” has landed a combined 204 significant strikes in his last two UFC fights, meaning he lands 102 significant strikes on average, in a fight. He’s absorbed 113 in those same two fights which means he lands two for every blow he absorbs – pretty impressive.

Max Holloway – the all-time leader in significant strikes landed – has a lower significant strikes landed per minute number. Holloway lands 6.66 per minute, while O’Malley lands 6.75. Now, given O’Malley only has two UFC fights, this, of course, isn’t a picture-perfect way of looking at his striking, but he still lands way more than the average fighter, making him a nightmare to deal with over the duration of three full rounds.

O’Malley has a striking accuracy of 56% and a striking defense of 66%. Furthermore, he has a takedown average of 1.31 per 15 minutes and a takedown defense of 61%.

O’Malley is a counter striker and likes to keep a McGregor-esque style with his hands down sometimes when he strikes. This is where he has to be careful, if and when he’s going to face tough competition.

 

Jose Quiñónez

Jose “El Teco” Quiñónez (8-3) takes on the 135-pound title prospect, Sean O’Malley. Quiñónez is 5-2 in his UFC career and last lost to Nathaniel Wood via second-round submission in March of last year.

“El Teco” has outstruck his opponent in every one of his fights, aside from his fight with Leonardo Morales in June of 2015 where he was out-landed by a single strike. Quinonez has landed 13 takedowns in his 7-fight UFC career. He holds one submission win, two KO wins and five decision wins.

While many might write off Quiñónez in this fight, he actually has great striking and lands great counter-hooks on the back foot. He’s landed a few great knockdowns in his fights but has also been knocked down himself.

“El Teco” has a takedown average of 2.64 per 15 minutes and a takedown accuracy of 45%.

 

Who wins?

Sean O’Malley is a super talented young title prospect with a lot of hype behind him. He faces a decent contender in his third UFC fight and if he can score another impressive win his stock will rise even further. The value on Quiñónez is nowhere near as high as you could’ve imagined, considering the media attention O’Malley has been getting as well as his following base on social media.

There’s no doubt about the fact that O’Malley has more momentum than his opponent. O’Malley has been out of six months due to a USADA suspension and is hungry to get back and make a statement. Odds 1.36 for O’Malley aren’t high enough to be worth betting on, but there might be better value to find in the additional betting markets, once the fight comes closer. The big question on everyone’s minds with an up and coming fighter is always: is it all hype? We don’t think so.

O’Malley doesn’t take much damage in his fights and his distance control and striking are top level. The only reason O’Malley’s opponent landed four takedowns in his last fight, was due to the fact that he sustained a severe foot injury during the fight.

Odds for O’Malley to win via TKO aren’t really that great (1.83), instead we think this one could go the distance. Sean to win via decision is at odds 3.50, and we think that has pretty decent value.

bettingexpert prediction: Sean O’Malley wins via unanimous decision.