Israel Adesanya vs Yoel Romero prediction - bettingexpert
UFC 248 – Israel Adesanya vs. Yoel Romero prediction
Undefeated rising star Israel Adesanya takes on the middleweight bogeyman when he faces Yoel Romero in the main event of UFC 248. This will be Stylebender’s first title defense as the champion of the middleweight division. This card is absolutely stacked and we can’t wait for this fight. With that said let’s jump straight into our prediction and betting tips for this championship fight. Who wins and where’s the betting value? Let’s have a look – but first, we analyze each fighter, starting with the champion.
Israel Adesanya
Wins
KO/TKO wins: 14 (78%)
Sub. wins: 0 (0%)
Dec. wins: 4 (22%)
Adesanya is undefeated and recently became middleweight champion when he knocked out Robert Whittaker in October of last year. Also notable, Adesanya had an awesome fight against Kelvin Gastelum where he answered a lot of questions regarding durability and composure.
Adesanya has incredible striking abilities. He is a gifted puncher and kicker and has great unorthodox knees and elbows to top it all off. He can finish opponents in all kinds of ways. Adesanya is a very technical fighter but he still finishes his fights. He also has great takedown defense at 85% which will be great for him against Romero, a strong Cuban wrestler. Adesanya has big advantages in height and reach against Romero.
Now, looking at weaknesses. Adesanya has been hit before most notably against Kelvin Gastelum where he was in trouble. Despite losing, Whittaker managed to find Adesanya’s chin quite a few times at the end of his punches. Against Israel, we saw Whittaker adopt a Romero-like style where he lunged in and loaded up on his punches. If Romero can catch the champion with those strikes it might be over quickly. We’ve seen Yoel’s power on display many times; one shot is all it takes.
Yoel Romero
Wins
KO/TKO wins: 11 (85%)
Sub. wins: 0 (0%)
Dec. wins: 2 (15%)
Some might pick Romero due to his scary KO power, but he’s only won twice in the last 4 years. Yoel is 2-3 in his last 5, losing all 3 by decision. There is little doubt that age is starting to affect Romero.
Most recently he had a 3 round war with Paulo Costa where he didn’t get the nod. Romero has been in some wars in his career. Most notably the two Robert Whittaker fights where he absorbed 192 combined significant strikes and 106 of those were to the head.
Romero usually adopts a patient demeanor with a high guard when fighting five-round fights to conserve energy. He waits and looks for his opening to land a knockout. We saw it in his impressive performance against former UFC champion Luke Rockhold and in the second Whittaker bout. Adesanya will be the much younger and fresher fighter and will look to stay on the outside to outstrike Romero.
Adesanya moves around well and switches stances making him hard to hit. Romero is expecting a fight like the one he had with Rockhold, but Adesanya is younger, fresher and faster and likes to push the pace. Romero has had cardio issues in the past, so it’ll be interesting to see how his gas tank holds up against the champion.
Who wins?
Adesanya holds advantages in height, age and reach on arms and legs. Adesanya lands more and absorbs less due to greater defense.
The age is also going to be a big factor in this fight. Adesanya, at 30-years old, will be 12-years younger than The Soldier of God and we know that the youngster wins 70% of the time in a scenario like this. With that being said, Romero is one of a kind. Despite being in his forties, he doesn’t seem to be affected by his age at all and has always had an age disadvantage over his opponents. He was 7 years older than both Luke Rockhold and Chris Weidman, both guys he knocked out. He was also 13 years older than Robert Whittaker, who he went toe-to-toe with twice. Romero has a very patient style and explodes when you least expect it. Adesanya is used to being a counter puncher so he will have to really be on his toes to avoid the KO. Against Rockhold, Romero was patient until he found his opening – he can do the same to Adesanya. It won’t be an early finish as Adesanya is too tough and smart for that, but it could be a third of or fourth-round finish once both fighters start getting more tired and a bit more sloppy.
Adesanya has certain tendencies that might leave him open to takedowns. He likes to lean back when his opponents lunge at him with shots, leaving his hips exposed for a takedown. Perhaps Romero will rely more than we’ve seen before on his wrestling for this fight which would give him an advantage. Adesanya has never fought a guy who is as agile and athletic as Romero is, so maybe Romero can catch Adesanya off guard when he least expects it.
Prediction: Yoel Romero def. Israel Adesanya via third-round KO.
Betting tips
Yoel Romero To Win 3.40
Let’s not forget that Yoel Romero has been the underdog in his fights with Tim Kennedy, Ronaldo Souza, Chris Weidman, Luke Rockhold, and Robert Whittaker and he won 5 of those fights, (almost 6 considering the second Whittaker fight which was extremely close). Bookies continue to overvalue Romero and odds 3.40 for the sly Cuban is great betting value.
Yoel Romero To Win Via KO 4.00
Romero hits like a truck and only needs one shot to put anyone’s lights out. Odds 4.00 is decent value.
Romero to win in round 3 17.00
Romero finished Rockhold in the third round when they fought. Perhaps, Romero has certain tendencies against kickboxers that will be seen against Adesanya too.
Data, data, data
Key stats:
- Adesanya is 12 years younger
- Romero’s endurance
- Romero’s KO power
- Adesanya’s momentum
- Romero has finished 11 (85%) of his fights with a knockout.
- Yoel has been the underdog in five big fights, where he has won every single won by knockout.
