Undefeated vs Undefeated: Breaking Down Israel Adesanya vs Paulo Costa at UFC 253 - bettingexpert
The Last Stylebender: Who Is The UFC’s Middleweight champion and rising star?
Back in April of 2018, Israel Adesanya was just a UFC debutant with 11 pro fights and high ambitions. 20 months and 7 fights later he was the undisputed middleweight champion of the UFC. Adesanya, nicknamed ‘The Last Stylebender’, steamrolled through the middleweight division in 2018 and 2019, beating big names such as Derek Brunson, Anderson Silva, Kelvin Gastelum, and Robert Whittaker to get to the title.
Adesanya, a pure striker, implements a high variety of strikes to best his opponents. Leg kicks, spinning elbows, flying knees and head kicks – Adesanya’s got it all. With an extensive background in professional kickboxing, Israel has developed a technical and efficient way of picking apart his opponents. Hands down and chin up, Adesanya is always moving his body and his head to avoid imminent attacks.
Like so many before him, Israel has amassed tonnes of fame both from his flashy fighting style, and his trash-talking antics outside of the cage.
The Challenger: Paulo Costa – Who is he?
Across from Adesanya will be Paulo Costa on the 26th of September. Undefeated (13-0) Paulo Costa, A.K.A ‘Borrachinha’, has fought 5 times in the UFC, finishing all but one inside the distance. In his last fight we saw him go toe to toe with the division’s bogeyman, Yoel Romero, in a three-round war for the ages. Both men faced the canvas but it was Costa’s relentless pressure and volume striking that gave him the nod from the judges.
Costa, 29, was a contestant on UFC’s reality show ‘The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 3’, where he was eliminated from the show after losing a split-decision. That wouldn’t stop him from fulfilling his dream however, as he was signed to the UFC only three years later.
Costa is known for his intimidating physique and devastating power striking. He usually traps his opponents against the cage and destroys them with vicious head-body-head combinations, often resulting in a KO. In 13 pro fights, Costa has finished 12 (11 KO’s, 1 SUB) and has only gone the distance once, in his last fight against Yoel Romero.
Breaking Down Adesanya vs Costa
Let’s get down to brass tacks – who wins this fight? Let’s judge each fighter in the three main areas of MMA: wrestling, striking and jiu-jitsu.
Who is the better striker?
Let us have a look at some striking stats for these two middleweight-greats:
| UFC Striking Statistics | Adesanya | Costa |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.00 | 8.50 |
| Strikes Absorbed Per Minute | 2.40 | 7.00 |
| Striking Accuracy | 50% | 60% |
| Striking Defense | 65% | 50% |
The way I always seek to answer this question is by phrasing it this way: Who can impose their striking successfully as a road to victory in their fights? I see it this way …
Israel Adesanya is the more technical striker, meaning that he picks his shots more and is more defensively successful. Adesanya lands about twice as much on his opponents as he absorbs, and doesn’t always go for the knockout.
Paulo Costa is the more ferocious striker of the two. He implements forward-movement and big power punches to keep his opponents against the cage where he unloads devastating combinations to close the show.
It should be said that both fighters are undefeated, and looking at their respective UFC performances, it’s clear that their striking has worked in favour of them as professional mixed martial artists. However, Costa’s last fight was a bit telling given that he was unable to finish his opponent – Yoel Romero. For the first time, Costa experienced an opponent who was still in his face after he had unloaded his barrage of strikes – and he fatigued, quite a bit… Paulo might’ve won the first two rounds against Romero, but he lost the third (in my opinion). Losing rounds doesn’t mean that a fighter is bad, but the way that Costa lost was telling me that he had trouble with pacing himself appropriately, and as a result, had a little trouble going the distance.
Costa’s fight with Adesanya will be a 5-rounder, meaning that he will have to endure 10 minutes more of action than if we was in a three-round fight. The point I’m trying to make here is that we’ve seen a chink in Costa’s armour – he slows down if he can’t finish his opponent. The same can’t really be said about Adesanya, who hasn’t faced much adversity in the octagon, apart from a few big shots from hard-hitting Kelvin Gastelum. I think Costa’s inability to conserve gas going the distance is too big to miss, and it is something that Adesanya might be able to in their fight. For this reason, I give this point to Adesanya who has (with all due respect) faced big punchers before and has walked away fairly unscathed.
MMAdam asks: Who is the better striker?
(x) Israel Adesanya?
( ) Paulo Costa?
Who is the better wrestler?
Again, let’s have a look at some stats here:
| UFC Wrestling Statistics | Adesanya | Costa |
| Takedowns Every 15 Minutes | 0 | 0 |
| Takedown Defense % | 86% | 80% |
| Total Takedowns Defended | 44 of 51 | 11 of 14 |
If you’re familiar with these two fighters you may know that neither of them are known for being wrestlers. In fact, neither fighter has ever attempted a takedown in the UFC – pretty crazy. Deciding who the best wrestler is might still be an important part of predicting the winner here, for reasons I will now talk about: First of all, engaging in the clinch is a big part of wrestling, it’s not all about actually being on the ground. Second of all, we know from experience that strikers sometimes go for desperation takedowns if they feel like they’re in a dangerous position.
Adesanya with his height and reach has shown great promise in the clinch. He uses his size well to get out of bad positions, and is very hard to take down. We’ve seen Adesanya’s clinch work and takedown defense in full effect in his last few outings against Gastelum and Romero. He certainly knows how to defend himself on the ground.
Costa is also very good at positioning himself correctly in the clinch. His size and strength are big reasons to why he is able to control his opponents against the cage.
Both fighters are really good here, but Adesanya has the more extensive defensive takedown record, stopping more takedowns attempted against him than Costa. Still, both fighters implement defensive wrestling in their gameplans to get the win, which is why this is a draw in my book.
MMAdam asks: Who is the better wrestler?
( ) Israel Adesanya?
( ) Paulo Costa?
Who has better jiu-jitsu?
Finally, let’s have a look at our final area of fighting:
| UFC Submission Statistics | Adesanya | Costa |
| Submissions Every 15 Minutes | 0 | 0 |
Submissons aren’t really what these two guys are known for either, but we can still study their skills in this discipline to judge who might have an edge over the other in grappling.
Adesanya has shown great promise in his jiu-jitsu game despite being coming from a pure striking background. This was most evident in his fight against Gastelum where he fended off multiple takedowns with submission threats. He managed to get out of bad situations by using jiu-jitsu, which is pretty big in my book. Adesanya is a blue belt in jiu-jitsu.
Costa hasn’t really gotten a chance to showcase his jiu-jitsu, but he does actually have a black belt in jiu-jitsu. He also has a submission win on his record, and also managed to submit his way to a victory on The Ultimate Fighter.
This one should be a no-brainer, a black belt beats a blue any day of the week and I don’t see it any differently. Adesanya might be a fast learner, but Costa is a legitimate black belt which gives him the edge here in my book.
MMAdam asks: Who is the better grappler?
( ) Israel Adesanya?
(x) Paulo Costa?
X-Factors
To predict the winner of this fight, I think we need to look deeper. I feel like we’ve only scratched the surface of the factors that will decide who the winner of this fight will be. Israel Adesanya’s reach is one of them. With a reach of 80 inches (203 cm) he will have a reach advantage of 8 inches (20 cm) over Costa, come fight night. That’s pretty significant, considering this is likely to end up a striking battle, and for obvious reasons…
Reach
Adesanya is a masterclass at using his reach to his advantage, and has excellent distance-control. Against Kelvin Gastelum, Israel was able to evade big shots from the Mexican and win key exchanges which eventually lead to his victory. Costa has never been able to deal with such a big reach disadvantage before, and it will be a big challenge for him, as he likes to get in close to do his best work.
Variation
In the UFC, Adesanya has landed 55% of his strikes to the head of his opponents, 19% to the body, and 26% to the legs. Meanwhile Costa has landed 60% of his strikes to his opponents’ heads, 36% to the body, and 4% to the legs. Mixing up his strikes is probably one of the reasons why Adesanya has been so successful in the UFC, and were it not for his leg kicks against Romero, he might not’ve left as the champion. Against the same opponent, Paulo Costa got in close and looked to hurt Romero in the close exchanges. Sure, it won him the first two rounds, but it also cost him a lot of energy, leading me to my next X-factor…
Cardio
Adesanya and Costa are two very different fighters despite adhering to the same discipline: striking. Adesanya likes to stay on the outside and Costa likes to get on the inside. Costa’s high pace usually takes a toll on him and renders him tired by the third round. The same can’t quite be said about Stylebender, who usually seems like he can go 10 rounds with little effort. Costa’s style might be more fun, but that KO power comes at a price. Adesanya isn’t a KO puncher in the same way as Costa, and usually does not ‘chase’ a KO, but will sometimes find it.
Final Prediction: ‘And Still’ or ‘And New’?
Paulo Costa is undefeated for a reason. He’s dangerous and a very talented contender in the middleweight division. I really like watching the guy – he always shows up to fight. That said, I see too many disadvantages for him against Adesanya in this matchup. A striking battle is totally on Adesanya’s terms as he has such an extensive and decorated background in stand-up fighting. The reach, the distance, the cardio – those are all areas where Adesanya has an advantage. Costa’s path to the title has also been a bit thin compared to Adesanya’s; facing only 5 opponents, only one of them actually ranked. In his last fight against Romero (his biggest challenge by far) he didn’t really pass with flying colors, getting dropped and rocked on a few occasions, and definitely losing the third round.
Costa needs to do what Romero, Whitakker and Gastelum have not been able to do, knocking out Stylebender, whilst conserving lots of energy for the championship rounds. I don’t think the Brazilian has all the cards in this matchup, and Adesanya gets it done via unanimous decision, avoiding the big shots early on and grinding out a victory.
Adesanya vs Costa: Betting Guide
Currently, we have Adesanya coming in as the favorite at odds 1.62 (61% implied win probability) while Costa is the dog at odds 2.30 (43% implied win probability).
I’m not going to sugarcoat it: I really like Stylebender at these odds. We’ve seen him in similar matchups before where he’s gotten his hand raised. The cardio also isn’t adding value to Costa in my opinion. He has never gone more than 15 minutes in his career, which is good for Adesanya who might want to take him into deep waters.
But let’s get more specific by diving into some key stats:
- In 2020 the champion has beaten the challenger almost 70% of the time.
- Adesanya has beaten all fighters bearing similarities to Costa he’s faced: Romero and Brunson.
- Adesanya’s stock is low – time to buy!
Personally, I think the last one is probably the most important. Adesanya’s stock took a dive after his fight against Romero, but if we really go back and watch that fight it might be unclear why. In my humble opinion, Adesanya probably won every single round of that fight with octagon control and efficient striking. Romero landed the bigger shots, but you can’t win a fight with so few significant strikes. Adesanya chipped away at Romero’s leg all night long, and I think that handed him the win.
Also, comparing Adesanya’s outing against Romero with Costa’s – who did it better? I think the answer should be easy: Adesanya. He took almost no damage and still won every round of that fight (in my opinion). The same can’t be said for COsta who was dropped and rocked in his fight against the Cuban. Technique and strategy is becoming more and more crucial in modern MMA and I think Adesanya is better than Costa when it comes to that.
To conclude: If I was a stockbroker I’d tell you to buy Adesanya’s stock at this price. The casual fanbase is riding Costa on this one as the is the one with the more decorated highlight reel. There’s also some fan-resentment coming Adesanya’s way after a lacklustre performance which probably means money is coming in on Costa.
I do think that the sharp bettors will start to send some money Stylebender’s way at this price.
