MMA Expert Shares Picks For Edmen Shahbazyan vs Derek Brunson | UFC Fight Night Predictions - bettingexpert
Derek Brunson
Age: 36 | Height: 185 cm | Weight: 84 kgs | Team: Hard Knocks 365.
Record: 20-7 | Knockouts: 11 | Submissions: 3 | Decisions: 6 | Losses: 5 knockouts, and 2 decisions.
Current streak: 2 wins in a row | Last fight: Unanimous decision win against Ian Heinisch on August 17th, 2019.
Odds: 3.50 | +250 | 5/2
Brunson, considered by many the division’s stepping stone, is 3-2 in his last five. He is coming off a decision win against Ian Heinisch. Shahbazyan, undefeated at 11-0, is making his fifth octagon walk for the UFC and will look to climb the ranks if he gets a win over Brunson.
Edmen Shahbazyan
Age: 22 | Height: 188 cm | Weight: 84 kgs | Team: Glendale Fighting Club.
Record: 11-0 | Knockouts: 9 | Submissions: 1 | Decisions: 1 | Losses: 0.
Current streak: 11 wins in a row | Last fight: First-round TKO win against Brad Tavares on November 2nd, 2019.
Odds: 1.30 | -333 | 1/3
Shahbazyan finishes 91% of his fights. The fans learned about him when he knocked out Brad Tavares with a head kick at UFC 244 last year. Shahbazyan is a well-rounded fighter and has knockout power and grappling skills.
Brunson will be timid like he was in the Adesanya fight and will be nervous to engage, allowing Shahbazyan to find his distance and rhythm to finish the fight early.
Shahbazyan in the ufc
In his last three fights, Edmen has faced Charles Byrd, Jack Marshman, and Brad Tavares.
Against Charles Byrd, we saw Edmen feeling out his opponent in the early seconds of round one, before unloading a sharp combination on his opponent. Byrd quickly realizes that he is in danger on the feet, and shoots for a takedown. Shahbazyan, however, is ready for this, and braces himself for the takedown. Edmen succesfully defends himself from getting taken to the ground. After fending off the takedown, Edmen has his back up against the fence, and sees his opening to launch a barrage of elbows to Byrd’s head, finishing the fight in about 40 seconds. Edmen moves to 2-0 in the UFC.
Shahbazyan faced Jack Marshman on the 6th of July, 2019. In that fight, Edmen again starts out by feeling out Marshman while throwing a few leg kicks and jabs to win the opening exchanges. After about twenty seconds, Edmen shoots for a single-leg takedown and succesfully gets his opponent to the ground. Marshman covers up at Edmen ground and pounds his opponent, and while trying to escape, Jack leaves his neck vulnerable. Edmen effectively sinks in a rear-naked choke and Marshman taps to extend Shahbazyan’s UFC record to 3-0.
The last time we saw Edmen was in November of 2019 where he faced Brad Tavares. The fight starts off with Edmen winning the early exchanges. He lands a few leg kicks but keeps his distance patiently. He looks like he knows that Tavares is a step up in competition for him. Tavares and him go back and forth but Edmen is able to evade most of Tavares’ shots by staying out of range. Suddenly, Edmen sees his opening and lands a quick 1-2 that puts Brad to the canvas. Keeping his composure, Edmen doesn’t go in for the kill yet but stalks his opponent around the octagon for a moment. Finally, Edmen seals the deal with a beautiful jab to headkick combination which forces the referee to stop the fight. Edmen moves to 4-0 in the UFC.
All in all I think we have a solid title contender in Edmen Shahbazyan. The skills he has been consistently showing in his fights are very impressive. Most importantly, is that he shows a high fight IQ. He knows when to shoot for takedowns and when to stay on his feet. His striking defense is also something to behold. In his four UFC fights, he has only been hit 38 times! His striking defense is 65% which means that his opponents only hit him about 35% of the time they throw a strike at him. With this in mind, we go to the fight prediction.
fight prediction
Shahbazyan is an incredible finisher. He holds nine knockout wins all coming in the first round. Shahbazyan has knockout power, no doubt about it, and combining this with the fact that Brunson has been knocked out four times in the first round in his career we have an idea of how this fight will play out. Brunson at 36 years of age has had a long career and has taken a lot of damage compared to his opponent. The youngster has a lot of momentum and is 14 years younger than his opponent. I think Brunson is going to be too cautious here and Edmen will dictate the dance from start to finish. I would be surprised if this fight goes the distance.
Prediction: Edmen Shahbazyan def. Derek Brunson via first-round KO.
bets & picks
Shahbazyan currently is the favorite at about 1.36. This means there’s an implied probability of 73% that he wins this fight. Odds could be a bit higher for Shahbazyan since he still is very young and lacks a bit of experience compared to Brunson who has been in there with the best of the best. This fight is going to be a striking contest if Edmen can stay on his feet, and I think his striking is just levels above Brunson’s. At odds 1.36 I still think there is some value left on the favorite’s side, but anything below 1.35 will make him overpriced in my opinion. I’m choosing to conclude that Edmen wins this fight 8 out of 10 times, which I think is appropriate to believe. I think Brunson is a step down in competition for him and he is a very dangerous striker. Brunson’s chin also isn’t the best anymore, so I think we will see a fight similar to Adesanya vs Brunson.
