Breaking Down Colby Covington vs Tyron Woodley | UFC Vegas 11 - bettingexpert
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Breaking Down Woodley vs Covington In Detail
Striking
Both fighters have polished grappling credentials, so this fight could very well take place on the feet. The fear of the other guy’s grappling has lead to wrestler vs wrestler matchups playing out on the feet – we saw this in Covington’s last fight against Kamaru Usman. On the feet, Woodley has the power advantage. More knockouts, more knockdowns and just more powerful punching is what Woodley has over Covington. However, while Woodley has the power, Colby has the volume, landing much more on average than the former champion, while absorbing little.
When I decide who the better striker is, I ask myself the question: Who has the ability to use their striking as a path to victory? Answering that question shouldn’t be that hard. I think that Woodley’s last few outings have shown that his overhand right has become predictable. Woodley’s striking has not evolved much since he was champion, and it is now at the point of predictable.
Covington is more sneaky, and frequently uses his jab to keep his opponents on the defense. Woodley’s tendency to back up to the cage before exploding forward is not something that will surprise his opponents at this point, if they’ve done their research on him. Covington has used his striking more effectively, winning more UFC fights than Woodley. For that reason, we need to give this point to Covington.
| Striking Stats | Colby | Tyron |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.00 | 2.30 |
| Striking Absorbed Per Minute | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| Striking Accuracy | 40% | 50% |
| Striking Defense | 55% | 55% |
Woodley has been shut down by people who avoid his power punches before: Rory MacDonald, Stephen Thompson, Kamaru Usman, and Gilbert Burns. The same can’t really be said about Covington, as none of his opponents have really managed to ‘shut down’ that aspect of his game – his volume. Usman beat him, but still absorbed more than 140 strikes in that fight, more than he’s ever been hit in a single UFC fight, and about as much as his last four opponents prior to that fight had hit him (Woodley, RDA, Maia, and Meek).
Wrestling
Now, let’s say that this fight goes to the ground. Who has the advantage? Again, looking at who is able to impose their will in this field is key to understanding who might be superior. Let’s star with the former champion. Woodley does have a background in wrestling, but hasn’t used it as much as you would imagine. The last time he got a takedown was in 2017 in his second fight with Thompson, scoring a single takedown in the third round.
Woodley has landed 5 takedowns in 9 UFC fights, and has been taken down 5 times as well. He confides so much in his hands that he rarely implements a wrestling-heavy gameplan.
Looking at Covington, the story is a bit different. ‘Chaos’ has landed a whopping total of 58 takedowns in his 12 UFC fights, averaging 5.00 takedowns in a three round fight. Colby has been taken down 5 times.
| Wrestling Stats | Colby | Tyron |
| Takedowns Landed Per 15 Minutes | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 51% | 39% |
| Takedown Defense | 80% | 90% |
Being able to consistently take down your opponents more than he takes you down is a key to succes for wrestlers, which is why Covington is the better wrestler in my book. Woodley might be better at keeping his opponents down once he gets them to the mat, but he isn’t able to dominate his opponents with relentless takedowns like Covington.
Jiu-Jitsu
Once you get your opponent to the ground, it’s important to be able to finish the job with a submission. Let’s have a look at who might be the better submission-artist of the two.
With a single submission win in the UFC, over Darren Till, we can’t say it’s fair to deem him the better submission-artist. Covington has two submissions in the UFC, but they came early in his career and against fairly green competition. Colby also has a submission loss on his record, which somewhat lowers his stock in my opinion. Both men are capable of submitting you, but rarely use it in their fights. Perhaps it’s only fair to call this a draw.
Fight Prediction
While Woodley will always have a puncher’s chance, I can’t see him pulling this one out of the hat. He looked like he didn’t want to compete in his last two bouts, and even had to clap himself into the fight in his last outing against Gilbert Burns, pretty hilarious…
Colby lost his last fight due to a narrow striking toolbox – Usman was able to implements bodyshots and leg kicks to overwhelm him. I can’t see how Woodley wins this fight going the distance. He would need a knockdown in every round to stop Covington from overwhelming him with volume.
Betting on Woodley vs Covington
This is where it gets interesting. Let’s review the odds.
| Tyron Woodley | 3.50 | +250 | 5/2 |
| Colby Covington | 1.30 | -333 | 20/67 |
Woodley is coming in as a big dog here, with an implied probability of 28%. Meanwhile bookies give Colby a 77% chance of winning. I can’t stress enough how valued I think those odds are for Woodley. He could very well win this fight 3 out of 10 times, regardless of all the points I covered in my breakdown above. This isn’t a great stylistic matchup for ‘Chaos’ whom we just saw come up short against the more powerful puncher, Kamaru Usman.
I’m not sure Colby will shoot for a takedown either, which could mean that Woodley will be the one who establishes octagon authority and takes the center. Woodley mostly gets backed up when facing big punchers and Covington isn’t known for his punching power. I also think we need to take into account the fact that Woodley probably knows that this is his last fight if he loses, so he might come out guns blazing.
These points lead me to believe that Woodley might have some value as a 3.50 underdog:
- He has tremendous takedown defense – possibly meaning Colby can’t take him down.
- He has big power – something Colby has struggled to deal with before.
- This is Woodley’s last fight if he loses, possibly resulting in a motivated Woodley.
All in all, I don’t see value in Colby as a 1.30 favorite when he just lost his last fight. I’d rather go with the dog.
4 Burning Questions This Fight Will Answer
1. Is Tyron Woodley done?
If Woodley loses this fight, he’s done. I can’t see any way around that. The man is approaching 40 on a 2-fight skid already, 2 fights where he looked completely lost. A third loss on top of that would definitely mean the end for Woodley. However, if Woodley wins in an impressive fashion, say with a knockout, he could very well get back on track again. Unlike boxing, a few losses don’t spell the end of your career. In MMA we’ve seen fighters with many losses achieve great things.
2. Is Colby Covington the real deal?
A win over Woodley is very big for Covington in my book, bigger than what people will give him credit for. If he wins, people will point to Woodley’s last performances and claim that he was already over the hill. However, this is a tough matchup for Colby, by no means easy. A heavy-handed anti-wrestler with great speed could spell trouble for ‘Chaos’, who failed against a similar opponent, Kamaru Usman. You could even argue that Woodley is a much better striker than Usman, so where does that leave Colby? Regardless of Woodley’s last two losses, I think Colby is the real deal if he wins here. Being strategic and technical in order to overcome these ‘bad matchups’ are some of the best features a fighter can have in my book.
3. Is Colby Covington a future titleholder?
This questions depends on the way Colby wins against Woodley, if he wins that is. A blue-print to beating Woodley could also be a blueprint to beating Usman. After all, when Usman and Colby fought, it was a stand up bout with zero wrestling. If I was in Colby’s corner, I’d tell him to mix up his striking – but I’m sure he has a team that tells him these things. Nonetheless, Colby could make some reads in this fight that could help him in an eventual rematch against Usman.
4. Is Colby Covington next in line for a titleshot?
In MMA, nothing is for certain, especially when you’re dealing with Dana White. It all depends on the way Colby wins. If he wins in an extremely dominant fashion, I could see him face the winner of Burns-Usman. However, a lacklustre performance could mean that Masvidal is next for him. After all, their rivalry has resulted in a long-anticipated matchup between the two. The thing is, when I look at the 170 lbs division there are a lot of fairly unknown guys. With all due respect, Leon Edwards isn’t exactly a household name as of right now, so I don’t see him getting a titleshot any time soon.
