Kevin Lee vs Charles Oliveira Prediction & Betting Tips | UFC Fight Night 170 - bettingexpert
Kevin Lee vs. Charles Oliveira Prediction & Betting Tips | UFC Fight Night 170
Preview updated 10/3/2020
Kevin Lee and Charles Oliveira are squaring up in the main event of UFC Fight Night 170, in the lightweight division. The fight goes down on March 14th. Lee is currently the favorite with bookmakers at about 1.72, while Oliveira is the underdog at odds 2.10. Who wins this fight and where’s the betting value? Let’s have a closer look.
Kevin Lee
Kevin Lee’s recent team-up with Firas Zahabi will be a big factor for this fight and for Lee’s MMA career in general. He has lost 3 of his last 5, however, he is still very young at 27 and certainly has the skill set to compete for the belt in the future. Oliveira is somewhat of a veteran in the UFC with 15 fights inside the octagon. He will be a great challenge for The Motown Phenom but Lee has more momentum coming into this fight. There’s no denying Oliveira’s impressive winning streak but the level of competition he’s faced hasn’t been high- at least not the level of what Lee has faced. Kevin Lee has hopefully gained tonnes of experience fighting the top of the division that he will use it to devise a gameplan with his brilliant new coach, Firas Zahabi.
Kevin Lee is coming off an impressive first-round head kick knockout against Gregor Gillespie last November. Before that, The Motown Phenom found himself on a two-fight losing streak. Now, working with famous coach Firas Zahabi, he’s looking to correct his mistakes and get back to the top of the division, but first, he’s got to get through Oliveira.
Kevin Lee is a wrestler but has great striking as well. He uses his long reach to keep his opponents at distance. Lee’s great wrestling has been shown in his performances against Barboza and Chiesa. He has a takedown average of 3.1 along with a submission average of 0.98. Kevin Lee will likely keep this fight standing to take away Oliveira’s submission skills. Lee has an incredible reach of 77” (196 cm) in spite of being 1,75 m tall. Compare that to Oliveira’s reach and height of 188 cm and 1,78 m and you get the idea of how long Lee’s arms are.
Lee will do everything he can to keep this fight on the feet, and he will utilize his long reach to outbox the Brazilian. Maybe he will go for a takedown at some point in the fight, but due to Oliveira’s submission skills, we think Lee will try to fight standing.
Kevin Lee is a guy that has the skills to beat the top of the division but loses fights due to ineffective gameplans. His fights with Al Iaquinta and Rafael Dos Anjos clearly showcase this as we saw Lee controlling his opponents in both fights before fading in the later rounds and succumbing to defeat. Lee’s partnership with Zahabi means a lot for his career, going forward.
Kevin lands 3.90 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.18. He has a striking accuracy of 42% and a defense of 52%. Lee has an average fight time of 11 minutes and 55 seconds.
Charles Oliveira
Oliveira is on a six-fight winning streak against decent competition. He is a submission specialist but can strike as well, as we saw in his last performance against Jared Gordon, where he won by first-round knockout. Oliveira holds 18 (64%) of his wins by submission and 8 (29%) by knockout.
Oliveira’s last defeat was handed to him by Paul Felder, who stopped him late in the second round. Oliveira has lost to Ricardo Lamas, Anthony Pettis, and Max Holloway.
Oliveira’s last win against Jared Gordon is possibly what causes his odds to be what they are. Priced at 2.10 there’s not great value to be found, betting on the underdog here. Oliveira has been finished 7 times in his career and has taken more damage than his opponent over the course of his 24 UFC fight career, absorbing more than 500 strikes, being knocked out four times in the process.
Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira lands 3.21 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.03. He has a striking accuracy of 50% and a striking defense of 54%. On the ground, Oliveira has a takedown accuracy of 2.77 and a defense of 58%. He has an impressive submission average of 2.8 and a takedown accuracy of 42%. Oliveira has an average fight time of 6 minutes and 29 seconds.
Who wins?
Kevin Lee is levels above Charles Oliveira. He might have had a few tough fights lately, but the changes he has made in his training camp will mean everything. Lee’s last performance against Gregor Gillespie was an absolute masterclass as we saw him head kick Gillespie to get a first-round knockout. Let’s not forget that people were already talking about Gregor Gillespie being the guy to beat Khabib Nurmagomedov, so Lee beating him the way he did was spectacular.
Picking Lee to win this fight holds decent value, currently priced as a 1.72 favorite, meaning bookmakers give him a 58% of winning. That percentage should be closer to 70 – Lee has the reach advantage, the momentum advantage as well as the grappling advantage.
Oliveira is not easy to finish, and Lee could very well drag his opponent to the floor and control it there for three rounds of domination. However, Lee looked more offensive and sharp in his last fight against Gillespie, leading us to believe that he’s adjusted his style somewhat under new coach Firas Zahabi. Oliveira doesn’t have a Diaz-level chin nor cardio to keep him moving away from Lee and could very well find himself on the receiving end of another performance of the night knockout at the hands of Kevin Lee.
Oliveira is a guy who sometimes waits too much for his opponents to strike. He always presses the action but he doesn’t always through the most volume. Oliveira also tends to shoot for takedowns at a really long distance, potentially leaving him open to a counter knee or an uppercut. With Zahabi in his corner, there’s a good chance that Lee will make certain reads in Oliveira’s style that could hand him a victory, perhaps inside the distance. Oliveira kind of has that chin-up striking style, which sometimes gets exposed.
Prediction: Kevin Lee def. Charles Oliveira via TKO, round 2.
