Turkey vs Wales Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

Mark Stinchcombe is here with his Turkey vs Wales prediction, team news and lineups preview for Saturday as Turkey host Wales in the UEFA Nations League. A huge game at the top of League B, Group 4 with sides eyeing league success. With both sides unbeaten whilst creating hosts of chances, goals look to be on the menu.

• Turkey vs Wales Tip 1: Over 2.25 goals
• Turkey vs Wales Tip 2: Over 0.5 Harry Wilson shots-on-target
• Turkey vs Wales Tip 3: Harry Wilson anytime goalscorer

Turkey vs Wales Prediction 1: 1st v 2nd xG

Turkey, Nations League, Saturday, November 16th, 17:00 (UK)

With two games remaining, Turkey sit top of the group on 10 points, whilst Wales sit two points back in 2nd on 8 points. With Turkey having to go away to Montenegro in their final game, who have lost four out of four, Craig Bellamy may well see this match as must win. And there’s every chance Wales could go there and cause an upset (4.50) if the reverse match is anything to go by. Wales dominated with 67% possession, won the shot count 15 – 5, and created 2.49 – 0.79 expected goals, including missing four big chances. Of course Turkey being down to 10 men had an impact here but the red card didn’t come until over an hour into the match.

The volume of Welsh chances created under Bellamy cannot be ignored and that’s why Turkey cannot be backed at 1.75, despite top scorer Kieffer Moore missing through injury. Across the UEFA Nations League B, they have created the 2nd most expected goals in 8.2 and the most big chances with a huge 15. They’ve also averaged the 3rd most possession with 60.1% showing their ability to control games.

Given Turkey have averaged the most shots-on-target with 7.3 per-game, this has resulted in them creating the most expected goals in 8.4 so we have to back goals when we have the two best attacks in terms of creating chances, especially with under 2.5 goals the favourite at only 1.80. As a result, we can take some security by backing over 2.25 goals. Both sides are outperforming their defensive expected goals by nearly two each, so we could see some regression to the mean here as well.

Turkey vs Wales Prediction 1: Over 2.25 goals (TRACKED BET)

• Best Odds: 1.725
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

Turkey vs Wales Prediction 2: Shoot on sight

Harry Wilson has been in fine form for Fulham recently with multiple goals off the bench which is in-keeping with his scoring prowess for Wales, which comes from the fact that he’s never afraid to let fly, particularly from distance, and as a result, hit the target. Under Bellamy in his four starts, Wilson has averaged 3.3 shots-per-90, with 1.9 of them coming from outside the area. It still means 1.4 are coming from inside the area, resulting in 1.4 hitting the target. Looking further back at Nations League level, Wilson has been consistent with hitting the target. In 13 games, he averages 1.0 shots-on-target. Given his lack of shot shyness, he looks a nice bet at odds against just to hit the target once.

Turkey vs Wales Prediction 2: Over 0.5 Harry Wilson shots-on-target

• Best Odds: 2.10
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 4/10

Turkey vs Wales Prediction 3: Walking in a Wilson Wonderland

We’ve mentioned Wilson’s shot prowess, and I’m really keen to add a bet of him getting a goal to his name at the price. He’s got three goals in his last two games for Fulham despite only playing 16 minutes! He seems to be flourishing under Bellamy, having scored in his last three Wales games and further back he’s now scored six goals in his last 12 competitive starts. Given he’d only scored four goals in his previous 29 starts, you can really see the increase in productivity. He also looks to be on penalties having scored last time out against Montenegro. In that respect, the appointment of Spanish referee Juan Martínez Munuera is also an exciting appointment given he awarded three penalties in his only Champions League game this season!

• Turkey vs Wales Prediction 3: Harry Wilson anytime goalscorer
• Best Odds: 6.0
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 2/10

Turkey vs Wales Prediction odds via bet365 as at 11:00, November 13th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Turkey vs Wales Injuries, Team News and Possible Lineups: Absences for both sides

Wales have a number of high profile players absent. Striker Kieffer Moore had to withdraw with a calf injury and he was the top scorer in the squad with 13 goals in 47 caps. On top of this they have also lost Ipswich striker Nathan Broadhead. They are already without captain Aaron Ramsey, Leeds United’s Ethan Ampadu and Swansea City’s Ollie Cooper because of injury. Turkey will be without Caglar Soyuncu and Ferdi Kadioglu, the latter who made a great impression at the EUROs and has already scored twice for Brighton. 

Turkey possible starting lineup:
Cakir; Celik, Demiral, Bardakci, Elmali; Kokcu, Calhanoglu; Kahveci, Guler, Yildiz; Akturkoglu

Wales possible starting lineup:
Darlow; Williams, Rodon, Cabango, Davies; Wilson, Sheehan; Brooks, Cullen, Burns; Harris

Match OPTA Stats:

• Both sides unbeaten in the Nations League
• 1st v 2nd in xG created in Nations League B
• Turkey had the most shots-on-target (7.3 per-game)
• Wales have created the most big chances (15)

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