Spain vs Serbia Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

Spain hosts their second home fixture in four days, aiming to make it three wins in a row in the Nations League as Josh Ingram oversees a Spain vs Serbia prediction, team news and lineups preview in the Nations League.

Serbia are the only side not to lose to Spain in the last twelve games since Brazil drew 3-3 with the Spanish in March. Spain weren’t at their best in Belgrade when the two squared up and will be looking to firmly take hold of this group with a win in Cordoba on Tuesday evening.

• Spain vs Serbia Tip 1: Spain HT:FT
• Spain vs Serbia Tip 2: Serbia Under 1 Goal
• Spain vs Serbia Tip 3: Serbia Over 2 Cards

Spain vs  Serbia Prediction 1: Spain to dominate proceedings

Spain, Nations League, Tuesday, October 15th, 19:45 (UK)

Luis de la Fuente’s impressive record saw him go into the Spanish record books with his side’s 1-0 win against Denmark. The La Roja manager now averages 2.58 points per game, putting him first out of any manager in history, even going ahead of Vincente del Bosque. 

Spain was not at their best against Denmark and needed a Zubimendi volleyed effort to win the game. It really should have been saved by Kasper Schmeichel. The Spaniards racked up lots of shots, 25 in total, forcing the former Leicester man to make five saves. Despite the lack of cutting edge in front of the goal, it was a fairly dominant display, with Denmark’s only positive spell in the game coming in the first half. 

Serbia arrives in this fixture with four points from three games. A win would see them leapfrog Denmark in second place. If they fail to get anything from this fixture, they will head into the final two Nations Leagues outings likely needing to win both of those. 

In recent games, this isn’t a selection that has frequently won. The most recent HT:FT success was in their 4-1 away win at Switzerland. Their lack of cutting edge meant it didn’t land against Denmark when it probably should have with how they controlled the whole game. Spain, being at home, will look to dominate the ball completely and will have Serbia penned in their own half for most of the game. Due to this, it should be an opportunity for Spain to produce lots of chances. If they go in front, it’s difficult to imagine Serbia getting a foothold in the game..

• Spain vs Serbia Prediction 1: Spain HT:FT (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Spain vs Serbia Prediction 2: Serbia to be nullified by the Spanish

In Serbia’s last six competitive fixtures, four have seen them fail to score. Goals have not been easy for Dragan Stojkovic’s side to come by. Their fortunes did turn in their most recent fixture at home against Denmark. The Serbians went on to win 2-0 with help from an own goal and a strike for Mitrovic, who has only scored twice in his last nine games.

The 0-0 in Belgrade saw Serbia create some chances in the first half, but La Roja dominated proceedings. They only forced David Raya into making one save while his opposite number, Rajkovic, had a far busier evening (five saves). Spain ended up having 74% possession. In the second half, they had 80% of the ball, 12 shots, and weren’t forced to defend all that much. Visiting teams in Spain will struggle to create much, as shown by the Danes, who could only muster three shots in their 1-0 defeat. 

Even though Spain’s backline had been forced into changes due to injuries, it remained solid. This was their second clean sheet in the opening three Nation League games. They only conceded once, with ten men for 70 minutes against the Swiss. Luis de la Fuente touched on his approach of having important players missing by saying, “We’re not going to change anything in terms of our plan or our idea of football… the idea is very clear.” This was evident against Denmark, and we will push for more of the same in Cordoba on Tuesday evening.

• Spain vs Serbia Prediction 2: Serbia Under 1 goal (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Spain vs Serbia Prediction 3: Potential to boil over

So far, Serbia’s disciplinary record in the Nations League stands at an average of three cards per90, with this selection landing in each. In their three fixtures at the Euros, they had eight cards across the three games, with over two against Slovenia. This is a Serbia side that is averaging 12 fouls per90 in the Nations League, with every card received from a foul so far. 

La Roja is a side that can handle itself, isn’t afraid to commit fouls, and accumulates cards to keep on top of proceedings. Their outings in the Nations League so far have been littered with cards. The first head to head between these two in Belgrade saw eight cards brandished, with  five for the Spanish. When they took on the Swiss, that was a match involving six cards, including a Red for Robin Le Normand. In all three games, their opponent has received over two, with Denmark picking up four cautions. It isn’t just in these specific fixtures where their opponents have racked up the cards; England and Germany had over two cards in both the final and the quarter-final. 

When taking a position like this, the referee is clearly a big factor. The man on the whistle for this one is Daniel Stefanski from Poland. So far, he has only refereed nine fixtures since July 10th. During this period, he’s handed out 37 yellows and five red cards across nine games, clearly not shy to get his cards out if needed. It’s a game with all the makings for bookings potential. Two cards each might also have legs at 2.25, with both sides not unfamiliar to a yellow card. 

• Spain vs Serbia Prediction 3: Serbia over 2 cards (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker:  Bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Spain vs Serbia Prediction odds via bet365 as at 12:00, October 14th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Spain vs Serbia Injuries and Team News: Yamal withdrawn adding to injury pile up for Spain

Many of the players who helped Spain in the Euros victory in the summer will be missing due to injury, with Unai Simon, Robin Le Normand, Dani Carvajal, Dani Olmo, Nico Williams and Gavi all missing. The RFEF confirmed that Yamal had avoided any structural injury from the game against Denmark, saying, ‘Prioritising the player’s health and to avoid any risk of injury, given the imminent match against Serbia, it has been decided to withdraw him from the squad.’ Baena will likely step in with the Yamal withdrawal. He will be missed as he is such a threat, but they have enough quality in other areas for it not to hurt the side too much.

Serbia should likely stay the same for this fixture in terms of personnel. Despite Grujic coming off injured at the break in their 2-0 win against Switzerland, it doesn’t appear to be serious. The usual three central defenders with wingbacks will likely transform into a flat-back five, with the away side likely defending for large swathes of the game. Mitrovic, who scored on his return to the national side, will presumably cut an isolated figure up top in this formation. 

Spain possible starting lineup:
Raya; Porro, Vivian, Laporte, Cucurella; Zubimendi, Ruiz; Baena, Pedri, Oyarzabal; Morata

Serbia possible starting lineup:
Rajkovic; Erakovic, Milenkovic, Pavlovic; Nedeljkovic, Maksimovic, Grujic, Biramcevic; Samardzic, Mitrovic, Lukic

Match Stats: Spain’s excellent form under de le Fuente

• Serbia only lost once in their last eight games in this competition. 
• They have only played each other twice, with the first time being a Spanish 2-0 win in 2012. 
• Luis de le Fuente still only lost one game in charge of the Spanish National side.
• Serbia’s last win against a top ten ranked side was against Portugal in 2021. 

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