Manchester United vs Manchester City Prediction - Premier League
Unlike the usual tension and excitement of a Manchester derby, this one feels slightly underwhelming given the poor seasons both are having. Whilst City at least sit fourth in the league, Man Utd are languishing in thirteenth which if they were to finish there would be their lowest position for 35 years. It was yet another defeat for Utd and Ruben Amorim in midweek, meaning he’s now lost nine of his 19 league games in-charge. Trying to save the seasons for both looks to be the Cup competitions, with Utd here perhaps with one eye on their midweek European tie with Lyon.
England, Premier League, Sunday, April 6th, 16:30 (UK)
- Man Utd vs Man City Prediction 1: Under 4.5 Cards (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.83
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 6/10 (TRACKED BET)
Man Utd’s record against the top eight opposition under Amorim reads six defeats in nine but they did of course pinch a win at the Etihad in the reverse fixture in a 2-1 victory just to prove how hard it is to predict either of these sides this season. Given the potential for a less heated than usual derby, backing a low carding game looks a good bet here.
The line is set at 4.5 and although only 53% of Man Utd matches have gone Under 4.5 cards, since Amorim has arrived, 13 of his 19 matches have seen this bet win (68%), including six of his last eight home games. For Man City, only 53% of their matches have also finished with less than five cards but away from home that rises to 60% and actually since November, eight of their 11 games have seen this bet win (72%).
Looking at this matchup historically, since Pep Guardiola arrived at the beginning of the 2016/17 season, 16 of the 24 meetings have seen Under 4.5 cards (67%) with an average of 3.88 cards per-game. However, Guardiola’s first six matches were against fiery Jose Mourinho where 31 cards were dished out (5.17 per-game). Remove those matches and it’s 13 of the Pep’s last 18 meetings with less than five cards (72%) at an average of 3.44 per-game. In the Premier League this bet has won in 11 of 17 games (65%).
The referee is John Brooks who has actually shown the most cards per-game this season (10+ appearances) with 75 across his 14 games (5.36 per-game). However, last season over a longer sample of 22 games, when the new card rules came in, Brooks only averaged 4.36 cards per-game in-comparison. He’s taken charge of 14 matches involving Man Utd and Man City since the start of 2023/24 and shown 55 cards at an average of 3.93 per-game.
In the reverse fixture there were only two cards given, both for the same incident in a scuffle between Kyle Walker and Rasmus Hojlund. Walker has seen left City on loan to join Milan so it’s very unlikely for any repercussions of that. The two cards was in-spite of two goals in the 88th and 90th minutes – one where a penalty was awarded – as Man Utd turned defeat into victory and celebrations went wild. It’s very possible that this is now ‘the friendly derby’.
Man Utd vs Man City Prediction odds via bet365 as at 12:00, April 4th, 2025. Odds may now differ.
Man Utd vs Man City Injuries, Team News and Possible Lineups Prediction: Haaland huge miss
Erling Haaland has been ruled out for seven weeks with an ankle injury after an innocuous fall at the side of the Bournemouth’s pitch at the Vitality Stadium at last weekends FA Cup quarter-final. Rodri (ACL knee), Nathan Ake (broken foot), John Stones (thigh) and Manual Akanji (thigh) all remain longer-term injuries. For Man Utd, Matthijs de Ligt will be assessed following an issue picked up in the game at Nottingham Forest during the week. Kobbie Mainoo has returned to training and could play some part here. Amad Diallo (ankle), Lisandro Martinez (ACL knee), Jonny Evans (calf) and Ayden Heaven (ankle) all remain long-term issues.
Man Utd possible starting lineup:
Onana; Yoro, de Ligt, Mazraoui; Dalot, Ugarte, Casemiro, Dorgu; Garnacho, Zirkzee, Fernandes
Man City possible starting lineup:
Ederson; Nunes, Dias, Gvardiol, O’Reilly; Bernardo, Kovavic, Gundogan; Foden, Marmoush, De Bruyne
Match OPTA Stats: Low cards on the agenda
- Ruben Amorim has lost nine of his 19 league games in-charge of Man Utd
- 13 of Amorim’s 19 matches have seen Under 4.5 Cards
- 8 of Man City’s last 11 league games have seen Under 4.5 Cards
- 16 of Pep Guardiola’s 24 meetings with Man Utd have seen Under 4.5 Cards across all competitions
- 11 of Pep Guardiola’s 17 league meetings with Man Utd have seen Under 4.5 Cards
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