Lens vs Le Havre Prediction - Ligue 1 Fixtures
Lens vs Le Havre prediction preview as two completely out of form teams meet in northern France. The January transfer window saw Lens significantly weakened and they have since lost three consecutive games to move out of the European spots. They face a Le Havre side who have just one win since late November and who are one of the big favourites for relegation.
Two teams lacking confidence could be a low scoring encounter
France, Ligue 1, Saturday, March 1st, 18:00 (UK)
Lens are the clear short-priced favourites to win this match but they don’t make for an appealing bet, even if they are facing one of the worst sides in Ligue 1. The January transfer window was not kind to the home side where they lost starting keeper Brice Samba, and defenders Khusanov and Danso. Lens needed the money so decided to sell. With that sort of approach it questions their ambitions though and this now feels like a club who have gone from challenging for Europe, to a mediocre midtable outfit. Lens have lost their last three straight games and only scored a single goal in the process. One of their big problems all season has been finding the back of the net and they continue to be a huge underachiever on the xG metrics, scoring 13 fewer goals than they should’ve done.
No team has lost more Ligue 1 matches than Le Havre this season (16) and they are heading for direct relegation under this current regime. Manager Didier Digard has kept his job despite fan protests last week after a terrible 1-4 home defeat to Toulouse. He has the backing of the president and in fairness, Digard has had little to work with at the club. The squad lacks quality and class, although the last time they travelled to northern France they claimed a shock win 2-1 at Lille. Neither team is confident and just looking at the two starting strikers Koyalipou and Hassan is hardly going to strike fear into the opponents defences.
Lens have the most under 2.5 goal games in Ligue 1 this season (16 out of 23) and their fixtures average just 2.20 goals per game. The odds available on that outcome look huge, especially facing a Le Havre team who average the fewest shots and fewest shots on target in the division. The most likely outcome is a 1-0 or 2-0 home win or a 1-1 draw. Even if the match is more open than expected then there’s no guarantee either of these teams can hit the back of the net with confidence. There will be a fear of losing on both sides so at odds of 2.20 the under 2.5 goals price is simply too big.
- Lens vs Le Havre Prediction: Under 2.5 goals (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.20
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 6/10 (TRACKED BET)
Lens vs Le Havre Prediction odds via bet365 as at 09:00, February 27th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Lens vs Le Havre Team News: Both teams with suspended players
Lens have had 3 players sent off in their last 4 matches and the latest man to receive a ban is striker Mbala Nzola who is suspended for two games. Centre back Deiver Machado returns from his suspension but we don’t know which system manager Will Still is set to use. He switched to a 4-2-3-1 formation last week but could go back to a 5-3-2 approach.
Midfielder Junior Mwanga is suspended for Le Havre after getting sent off last week. He could be replaced by Mahamaou Diawara in the XI. Le Havre don’t have many injury problems but are lacking alternative options. This is a limited squad and manager Didier Digard doesn’t have many cards left to play. He could opt to start the experience of Andre Ayew in attack or bring back Arthur Desmas as the starting goalkeeper.
Lens possible starting lineup:
Ryan, Medina, Sarr, Machado, Gradit, Aguilar, Diouf, El Aynaoui, Thomasson, Said, Koyalipou
Le Havre possible starting lineup:
Gorgelin, Ballo-Toure, Lloris, Youte Kinkoue, Nego, Diawara, Joujou, Kechta, Casimir, Soumare, Hassan
Match OPTA Stats: Lens discipline is a huge concern
- Lens continue to have the biggest offensive underachievement in Ligue 1, scoring just 26 goals from an xG of 39.50
- Le Havre rank in the bottom four in Ligue 1 for xG, xGA and xPTS
- Lens have a terrible disciplinary record this season obtaining 57 yellow cards and 7 red cards which is second only to Montpellier.
- Lens average by far the most fouls per game of any team (15.60)
- Le Havre only average 42.2% possession this season which is the fourth fewest of any team
- Le Havre average the fewest shows per game (9.80) in Ligue 1 and the fewest shots on target (3)
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