Mexico vs Jamaica Prediction: Copa America 2024 Match Preview
Mexico vs Jamaica Prediction 1: Mexican pragmatism
The opening game in Group B pits the favourites to win the group against Jamaica, the clear outsiders priced at 1.12 on to not qualify from the group. Mexico comes into the competition as the fourth 12.00 favourite, whereas Jamaica is an expected hefty price to win the Copa America to win at 150/1.
A pragmatic Mexico setup will unlikely look to pull up any trees in their opener against Jamaica due to the shift to being more of an effective defensive unit and prioritising a counter-attacking-based style ever since the manager Jaime Lozano took charge.
The last time these teams met was in the CONCACAF Gold Cup semifinals last year, where Mexico put in a dominant display and beat the reggae boys 3-0. Mexico went on to win the Gold Cup.
Mexico’s recent form is not great, most recently losing 3-2 to a last-kick-of-the game-winner from Endrick for Brazil, and 4-0 to a rampant Uruguay team. Mexico’s two most recent wins were against Panama with a 1-0 win and against Bolivia with a 3-0 win.
Being such heavy favourites against Jamaica means they’re not an attractive price to take in the 1X2 markets at 1.57. So, pairing it with under 3.5 goals appeals to me. Analysing recent irritations of the Copa America; in 2021, we saw a 2.32 goal average per game and 75% of matches going under 3.5 goals, with similar numbers present in 2019, with a 2.31 goal average and 69% of games going under 3.5.
- Mexico vs Jamaica Prediction 1: Mexico Win and Under 4 Goals (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.05
- Bookmaker: Bet365
- Stake: 6/10
Mexico vs Jamaica Prediction 2: Mexico to set the tone early
Mexico, a team that often shows resilience and determination, has been a bit unpredictable lately. However, since the disappointment of not making it out of the group in Qatar, they have bounced back, participating in two Nations Leagues, coming second and third, and even winning the Gold Cup in between.
Jamaica, a team with potential for growth, has faced some challenges in this competition. They’ve played in it twice before, unfortunately losing all six games, which could serve as a motivation for them in the group stages.
All expectations are for Mexico to come out and deliver against Jamaica. It is the perfect way to set the tone for them with the two more challenging games coming after; in some ways, this is a bit of a free hit for Jamaica. They are a 6.00 underdog and would be happy with a point.
Mexico has only won 5/13 games in competitive fixtures since the World Cup, which is not too big of a reason to back this HT/FT selection, but of the eight times they have won, it has landed on four occasions.
I’m expecting a reserved performance from both sides, with Mexico being cautious of losing the opening match, making for a tense game for spells. Mexico will likely be aggressive from the start and go ahead in the first half.
- Mexico vs Jamaica Prediction 2: HT/FT Mexico/Mexico
- Best Odds: 2.50
- Bookmaker: Bet365
- Stake: 2/10
Mexico vs Jamaica Prediction odds via bet365 as at 09:00, June 13th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Mexico vs Jamaica Copa America 2024 Team News and Possible Lineups: Bailey back into the fold
Jaime Lozano wanted to begin a rebuilding process he referred to as “generational change”. This stance from Lozano saw the squad’s long-term staples cast aside, such as Guillermo Ochoa, Raul Jimenez and Hirving Lozano.
The current Mexican squad predominantly comprises players from the Liga MX, a testament to the team’s focus on nurturing homegrown talent. However, the spotlight remains on their two-star players, Edson Alvarez of West Ham and Feyenoord striker Santiago Gimenez, who will step up as the team’s key figures from this tournament onwards. Despite his modest record of four goals in 27 games, Gimenez has yet to show he can lead the line effectively.
When head coach Heimir Hallgrimsson suspended Leon Bailey in March for not abiding by a curfew, the coach did not say when the Aston Villa winger would be brought back into the fold. He hasn’t played for the Reggae Boys since last November. The decision to bring him back now for the Copa America is a sensible one if they have any hope of qualifying from the group.
The other inclusion that was uncertain was Captain Andre Blake, who is coming off the back of recent surgery. He’s been included more so for the latter parts of the group stage and potential knockouts. I don’t expect him to feature in the opener.
Mexico possible starting lineup:
Malagon; Reyes, Orozco, Vasquez, Arteaga; Alvarez, Chavez, Roriguez; Antuna, Gimenez, Quinones
Jamaica possible starting lineup:
Waite; Lembikisa, Pinnock, Hector, Leigh; Palmer, Johnson, Decordova-Reid, Bailey; Nicholson, Antonio
Copa America 2024 Match Stats: Jamaica’s Copa America woes
- Mexico have the most appearances from CONCACAF in the Copa america
- Jamaica has played 6 times and lost every game in Copa America
- Mexico has been runner up in 1993 and 2001 in this competition.
- In there six losses Jamaica have failed to score and conceded nine times
Mexico Group B Copa America 2024 Fixtures: Qualified before final fixture
- Vs Venezuela (A)
- Vs Ecuador (H)
Jamaica Group B Copa America 2024 Fixtures: Unforgiving group for the Reggae Boys
- Vs Ecuador(A)
- Vs Venezuela (H)
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