Napoli vs Inter Milan Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

As the Nerazzurri prepare to head south, our Italian football expert Daniele Fisichella provides a preview and prediction for the Napoli vs Inter Milan showdown.

With just a single point separating league leaders Neroazzurri from second-placed Napoli, the stakes could not be higher. 

Meanwhile, Atalanta remain only three points off the top, suggesting this Scudetto race could go right down to the wire.

Napoli vs Inter Milan Prediction: First not to lose?

Italy, Serie A, Saturday, March 1st, 17:00 (UK)

Napoli are experiencing a slump in form, managing only three points from their last four league outings with draws against Roma, Udinese, and Lazio, plus a 2-1 defeat to Como. 

The Partenopei are keen to avoid defeat on Saturday to stay in the title hunt. 

This dip, highlighted by last Sunday’s lacklustre performance, underscores the urgency with which Antonio Conte’s side must approach this crucial Serie A match.

On the other hand, Inter Milan arrive with a somewhat positive yet inconsistent run of form. 

Simone Inzaghi’s men have collected seven points from their last five matches, a tally that doesn’t quite match the expectations of a team aiming to retain the title. 

Perhaps fatigue is setting in for Serie A’s oldest side, exacerbated by a tougher schedule compared to Conte’s team. 

They have contested nine more games across all competitions, including a 2-0 home win against Lazio in the Coppa Italia this Tuesday. 

Their fixtures don’t ease up either, as they face Feyenoord in Rotterdam in the Champions League Round of 16 first leg next Wednesday.

Both teams are likely to approach the encounter with caution due to the high stakes, reluctant to cede any advantage to their closest rivals. 

Additionally, Inter will be mindful of their poor record in domestic big matches this season, having only secured 12 points from nine games against Serie A’s top seven teams.

Injury concerns add complexity to both teams’ preparations. Marcus Thuram’s return is a significant boost for Inter, adding firepower alongside captain Lautaro Martínez. 

For Napoli, the absence of key midfielder Frank Anguissa demands strategic adaptability from Conte, who might adjust formations. Potential tactics include mirroring Inter’s 3-5-2 or implementing a flexible 4-2-3-1 with left-back Leonardo Spinazzola possibly stepping into the attacking role previously held by David Neres (injured) and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.

Our in-house tool BETSiE suggests that Inter’s prospects of retaining the Scudetto have improved since last weekend’s victory, with a 68.3% chance of finishing as champions. However, given their slight advantage ahead of Saturday, a draw could be a pragmatic outcome, with a 30.6% probability according to BETSiE. 

Yet, the opportunity to extend their lead to four points might spur Inter to pursue a more assertive strategy.

While Napoli continues to navigate through form fluctuations, their path to securing the title might be easier than expected. 

With their final six fixtures against teams in the lower half of the Serie A table, even a draw on Saturday could spark a decisive title charge, assuming Atalanta doesn’t keep winning. 

• Napoli vs Inter Milan Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.67
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10 (TRACKED BET)

Napoli vs Inter Milan Prediction odds via bet365 as at 15:00, February 26th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Napoli vs Inter Milan Team News: A change of system and an important return

Frank Zambo Anguissa’s injury further complicates Conte’s task. 

The former Inter manager needs to solve the dilemma of how to replace the Cameroonian midfielder and which formation to deploy following their recent outings with the 3-5-2 setup. 

On Saturday Conte might opt to shift back to a 4-3-3 formation, with Billing set to join Lobotka and McTominay in midfield. With Olivera returning to full fitness, the other choice is between Spinazzola and Giacomo Raspadori (two goals in the last three games) for a spot in the attacking trio.

In the visitors’ camp Thuram is on the mend and is expected to join Lautaro Martínez up front. 

Josep Martinez will keep his place in goal due to Yann Sommer’s injury, with Acerbi commanding the back three. Dumfries and Dimarco will operate as wing-backs, while Calhanoglu is expected to play from the start as the deep-lying playmaker, supported by Barella and Mkhitaryan.

Napoli possible starting lineup:
Meret; Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Buongiorno, Spinazzola; Billing, Lobotka, McTominay; Politano, Lukaku, Raspadori.

inter Milan possible starting lineup:
Martinez; Pavard, Acerbi, Bastoni; Dumfries, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Thuram, Lautaro. 

Match Stats: Everything suggests a low scoring game

• According to BETSiE, this game is the most likely match of Serie A’s matchday 27 to end in a draw, with a 30.6% probability. 
• Napoli have got the worst attack among Serie A’s top five and are only eight for expected goals (38.39). 
• Inter Milan have only collected 12 points in nine games played against Serie A’s top seven teams this season. 
• The Nerazzurri have 12 points less in the table compared to last season, only Monza (-22) has a worse differential. 
• The hosts have not kept a clean sheet against Inter Milan in the past 12 games in all competitions. 
• Inter have lost just one of the past six (2W, 3D) games played at the ‘Diego Armando Maradona’ in all competitions. 
• In his managerial career Antonio Conte has lost just one out of five games (2W, 2D) against Simone Inzaghi’s teams. Only one of these clashes has produced more than three goals. 

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