Roma vs Genoa Prediction - Serie A Fixtures

Roma and Genoa clash at the Stadio Olimpico on 17 January 2025, kicking off the 21st round of Serie A. Both teams are neck and neck in the league standings, with Roma in 10th place on 24 points and Genoa just behind in 11th with 23 points. Roma, under Claudio Ranieri, are on a four-game unbeaten streak and will look to leverage their home advantage and b attacking form to secure a win.

Genoa, managed by Patrick Vieira, arrive with a three-game unbeaten run but face the challenge of several key absences. Despite this, they recently secured a morale-boosting win over Parma.

Expect an intense matchup with Roma likely to edge it. Recommended bet: draw with Roma -2 (EH).

Roma vs Genoa Prediction & Betting tip

Betting tip	Odds
Draw with Roma -2 (EH)	4.75

• Roma have scored in 80% of their home matches this season, indicating their b attacking presence at Stadio Olimpico.
• Genoa have scored most goals in the 76-90 minute interval, showing they tend to push hard late in the game, which could play a role in minimizing the goal difference.
• Roma have not lost in 4 consecutive matches in Serie A, suggesting they are likely to maintain a solid performance without a major upset.

Roma vs Genoa Odds

With Roma being the bookmakers’ favourite, the odds reflect the expected superiority of the home team in this match. Here’s a breakdown of the betting odds for the game:

Roma vs. Genoa Betting Odds
Bet	Odds
Roma	1.54
Draw	4.05
Genoa	6.25

Roma Team Analysis

Roma has been on a decent run of form lately, reflected in their last five games:

• Draw against Bologna (2-2)
• Win against Lazio (2-0)
• Draw against Inter Milan (1-1)
• Win against Lecce (3-1)
• Win against Sassuolo (4-1)

Roma	Opponent	Result
Roma	Bologna	2-2 (Draw)
Roma	Lazio	2-0 (Win)
Roma	Inter Milan	1-1 (Draw)
Roma	Lecce	3-1 (Win)
Roma	Sassuolo	4-1 (Win)

Despite being placed 10th in Serie A, Roma’s recent form showcases their solid attacking capabilities, scoring an average of 2.80 goals in their last five fixtures. Moreover, they managed to keep two clean sheets, indicating their defensive strength, especially since Mats Hummels has regained his form under Claudio Ranieri.

Keep an eye on their b home performance, as they are undefeated in their last four games, with significant contributions from top scorer Artem Dovbyk and playmaker Paulo Dybala.

Roma Key Players

Key players for Roma include top scorer Artem Dovbyk, who has netted six goals this season, and Paulo Dybala, known for his playmaking abilities. Both players will be instrumental in breaking down Genoa’s defense.
Mats Hummels, a defensive stalwart, alongside Gianluca Mancini and Evan N’Dicka, forms a solid backline. Hummels’ resurgence under Claudio Ranieri has amplified Roma’s defensive capabilities.
Potential individual battles to watch include Dovbyk against Genoa’s Johan Vásquez and Dybala against Morten Thorsby.
Expected lineup for Roma:

• Goalkeeper: Mile Svilar
• Defenders: Gianluca Mancini, Mats Hummels, Evan N’Dicka
• Midfielders: Alexis Saelemaekers, Manu Koné, Leandro Paredes, Angeliño, Lorenzo Pellegrini
• Attackers: Paulo Dybala, Artem Dovbyk

Roma Suspensions & Injuries

Roma will be missing Bryan Cristante due to a ligament injury, but fortunately, he is expected to return by late January 2025. This absence might slightly affect Roma’s midfield stability, although they have sufficient depth to manage without him for this fixture.

Player	Injury	Expected return
Bryan Cristante	Ligament injury	Late January 2025

Overall, Claudio Ranieri has managed to keep most of his squad fit, ensuring Roma can field a b line-up against Genoa. This near-full strength squad will be crucial as they aim to extend their unbeaten run and climb up the Serie A table.

Roma Tactics and Formation

Roma Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-4-2-1
• Defensive Line: Right center-back Gianluca Mancini, central back Mats Hummels, left center-back Evan N’Dicka
• Midfield Quartet: Right midfielder Alexis Saelemaekers, right central midfielder Manu Koné, left central midfielder Leandro Paredes, left midfielder Angeliño
• Wingers: Right attacking midfielder Paulo Dybala, left attacking midfielder Lorenzo Pellegrini
• Key Forward: Center forward Artem Dovbyk

Roma’s aggressive 3-4-2-1 formation leverages a compact defense bolstered by Hummels’ leadership. The midfield provides both width and central stability, relying on the dynamic playmaking skills of Dybala and Pellegrini. Expect b offensive pressure, particularly during the 61-75 minute interval, aligning with their tendency to score most goals late in matches. Their two clean sheets in the last five games highlight a solid defensive unit ready to thwart Genoa’s attacks.

Genoa Team Analysis

Genoa have shown a mixed bag of results recently, with their last five matches yielding two wins, two draws, and one loss. They’ve managed a commendable three clean sheets in these games, indicative of a solid defensive unit. However, their scoring record has been a bit subdued, averaging just 0.8 goals per game in their last five outings. This has put them in 11th place in the league, trailing Roma by just a single point. Here’s a closer look at their recent performances:

Home team	Away team	Result
Genoa	Monza	2-0 (Win)
Genoa	Udinese	1-1 (Draw)
Salernitana	Genoa	0-0 (Draw)
Genoa	Bologna	1-0 (Win)
Fiorentina	Genoa	2-1 (Loss)

Genoa Key Players

Genoa’s key players for the upcoming match against Roma include their top scorer, Andrea Pinamonti, who has netted 6 goals so far this season. He will be crucial in breaking down Roma’s defense, which has shown vulnerabilities during specific periods of the game.

Defensively, Genoa will rely on Johan Vásquez and Mattia Bani to maintain their recent trend of clean sheets, with Nicola Leali expected to be solid between the posts.

Expected lineup for Genoa:

• Goalkeeper: Nicola Leali
• Defenders: Koni De Winter, Mattia Bani, Johan Vásquez, Aaron Martin
• Midfielders: Lior Kasa, Alessandro Zanoli, Morten Thorsby, Morten Frendrup, Fabio Miretti
• Forward: Andrea Pinamonti

Watch out for key individual battles, particularly Pinamonti versus Mats Hummels.

Genoa Suspensions & Injuries

Genoa are grappling with a lengthy injury list ahead of their clash against Roma, which could affect their performance significantly. The absence of key players might make it challenging for them to maintain their recent defensive solidity and attacking thrust.

Player	Injury	Expected return
Ruslan Malinovskyi	Broken ankle	Back in training
Honest Ahanor	Meniscus injury	Late February 2025
Caleb Ekuban	Hamstring injury	Early February 2025
Brooke Norton-Cuffy	Hamstring injury	Late January 2025
Vitinha	Physical discomfort	Doubtful
Milan Badelj	Physical discomfort	Doubtful
Alan Matturro	Physical discomfort	Doubtful
Junior Messias	Muscle injury	Doubtful

Genoa Tactics and Formation

Genoa’s Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-1-4-1
• Key Forward: Andrea Pinamonti
• Midfield Dynamics: Lior Kasa as the holding midfielder, with Alessandro Zanoli and Morten Thorsby operating on the right and central midfield respectively, while Morten Frendrup and Fabio Miretti cover the left side.
• Defensive Structure: The back four consists of Koni De Winter at right back, Mattia Bani and Johan Vásquez as the center backs, with Aaron Martin at left back.
• Notable Strategy: Despite scoring fewer goals (0.80 average in the last five games), they are b defensively with three clean sheets recently. Given their injury concerns, Genoa might focus on a disciplined defensive game, looking to exploit gaps in Roma’s defense, particularly in the later stages of the match (76-90 minute interval).

Roma vs Genoa Head-to-Head Statistics

When these two sides last met, Genoa and Roma held each other to a 1-1 draw. Historically, Roma has had the upper hand in their encounters over the past few seasons. Below is a concise summary of their most recent five meetings:

Home	Away	Result
Genoa	Roma	1-1
Roma	Genoa	1-0
Genoa	Roma	4-1
Roma	Genoa	1-0
Roma	Genoa	0-0