St. Pauli vs. Freiburg Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 15 February 2025 - bettingexpert

As we dive into the 22nd round of the Bundesliga, St. Pauli and Freiburg face off at Millerntor Stadion on 15 February 2025, at 14:30. This match is crucial for both sides, with St. Pauli fighting to stay clear of relegation and Freiburg aiming to solidify their position in the top six.

St. Pauli, sitting in 14th place with 21 points, has shown improved form lately, gathering seven points in their last three matches before a recent dip. However, they’ll have to cope without their top scorer Morgan Guilavogui due to injury. Freiburg, sixth with 33 points, has struggled on the road but managed to get back on track with two consecutive victories, fixing their defensive frailties in the process.

A win here could hugely benefit Freiburg in their quest for European football, while St. Pauli looks to exploit Freiburg’s inconsistent away form. As highlighted, Freiburg is favored to clinch the win due to their superior individual talent and recent form.

Considering all the insights, our match prediction favors a narrow victory for Freiburg.

St. Pauli vs Freiburg Prediction & Betting Tip

St. Pauli vs Freiburg Prediction
Betting tip	Odds
Freiburg to win	3.3

• Freiburg’s recent form has seen them tighten up defensively, leading to back-to-back victories.
• Despite St. Pauli’s fight against relegation, Freiburg holds the edge with superior individual talent and overall squad depth.
• St. Pauli’s recent performance has been inconsistent, and they will miss their top scorer, Morgan Guilavogui, due to injury, further weakening their attack.

St. Pauli vs Freiburg Odds

St. Pauli vs Freiburg Betting Odds
Bet	Odds
St. Pauli	2.52
Draw	3.15
Freiburg	2.89

St. Pauli are the narrow favourites with odds of 2.52, reflecting their recent determination to fight off relegation. Freiburg, with odds of 2.89, might have the edge due to their higher position in the table and recent defensive improvements. Both teams have equal potential for an exciting clash, making a draw at 3.15 an intriguing option for bettors.

• St. Pauli being slightly favoured indicates trust in their home advantage.
• Freiburg’s odds show confidence in their overall squad strength.
• The odds for a draw reflect the competitive nature anticipated in this matchup.

St. Pauli Team Analysis

St. Pauli Recent Performance

Home team	Away team	Result
RB Leipzig	St. Pauli	2-0 (Loss)
St. Pauli	Augsburg	1-1 (Draw)
St. Pauli	Union Berlin	3-0 (Win)
FC Heidenheim	St. Pauli	0-2 (Win)
Bochum	St. Pauli	1-0 (Loss)

St. Pauli’s recent form has been a mixed bag with two wins, a draw, and two losses.

Their defensive solidity has shown through, with two clean sheets in the last five games and an average of 1.2 goals conceded per match this season. They’ve also managed to score 1.20 goals on average in their last five matches, indicating a modest but present attacking threat.

The team has been fighting hard to stay out of the relegation zone, with their recent good form crucial in that battle.

St. Pauli Key Players

St. Pauli’s key players to watch in this home clash against Freiburg include their top scorer, Morgan Guilavogui, who has netted five times this season. However, Guilavogui is currently sidelined with a broken ankle, so the attacking responsibility falls to Johannes Eggestein.

Another standout is Jackson Irvine, who adds stability in the midfield and support in defense. Eric Smith’s role as central back will be crucial in holding off Freiburg’s offense.

Expected lineup for St. Pauli:

• Goalkeeper: Nikola Vasilj
• Defenders: Hauke Wahl, Eric Smith, David Nemeth
• Midfielders: Philipp Treu, Jackson Irvine, James Sands, Lars Ritzka
• Attackers: Oladapo Afolayan, Johannes Eggestein, Noah Weißhaupt

Key individual battles to watch:

• Johannes Eggestein vs Matthias Ginter: Eggestein’s agility against Ginter’s defensive prowess.
• Jackson Irvine vs Ritsu Doan: A midfield showdown determining control of the game.

St. Pauli Suspensions & Injuries

St. Pauli is currently grappling with several injuries, which could significantly impact their performance against Freiburg.

Player	Injury	Expected return
Simon Zoller	Calf Injury	Late February 2025
Sascha Burchert	Groin Injury	Late February 2025
Sören Ahlers	Knee Injury	Late February 2025
Robert Wagner	Hip Injury	Late February 2025
Karol Mets	Tendon Injury	About a week
Manolis Saliakas	Hip Injury	Early March 2025
Morgan Guilavogui	Broken Ankle	Early April 2025

The absence of Morgan Guilavogui, their top scorer, poses a substantial challenge to their attacking prowess. Additionally, the anticipated returns of key players like Simon Zoller and Sascha Burchert later this month might come too late for this crucial fixture. This surge of injuries places extra responsibility on fit players, requiring them to step up in Guilavogui’s absence.

St. Pauli Tactics and Formation

St. Pauli Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-4-3
• Key Forwards: Johannes Eggestein, Noah Weisshaupt, Oladapo Afolayan
• Midfield Quartet: Philipp Treu, Jackson Irvine, James Sands, Lars Ritzka
• Defensive Line: Hauke Wahl, Eric Smith, David Nemeth
• Goalkeeper: Nikola Vasilj

St. Pauli has been experimenting with a flexible 3-4-3 formation under coach Alexander Blessin. In their last match, the formation showed defensive resilience, enabling them to secure two clean sheets in their recent five games.
Due to injuries, especially Morgan Guilavogui’s absence, the attacking trio has to be more dynamic.
St. Pauli’s strategy often involves building play from the back, utilizing the width provided by their midfielders. Lars Ritzka’s role as a winger supports both defense and attack, with a particular emphasis on scoring late in the game.

Freiburg Team Analysis

Freiburg Recent Performance WWLLL

Recent Form: WWLLL
Freiburg’s last five matches in the Bundesliga show a mixed bag of results. They won their latest two games against FC Heidenheim and Bochum, both with clean sheets. However, these victories followed three consecutive losses against Bayern Munich, VfB Stuttgart, and Eintracht Frankfurt, where they conceded a significant number of goals.

Home team	Away team	Result
Freiburg	FC Heidenheim	1-0 (Win)
Bochum	Freiburg	0-1 (Win)
Freiburg	Bayern Munich	1-2 (Loss)
VfB Stuttgart	Freiburg	4-0 (Loss)
Eintracht Frankfurt	Freiburg	4-1 (Loss)

With an average of 0.80 goals per game scored in their last five outings and two clean sheets, Freiburg shows strength in defense but inconsistency in attack. Their focus will be on maintaining their defensive solidity while hoping their top scorer, Vincenzo Grifo, can find the net more frequently.

Freiburg Key Players

Expected lineup for Freiburg:

• Goalkeeper: Noah Atubolu
• Defenders: Kilian Sildillia, Matthias Ginter, Philipp Lienhart, Christian Günter
• Midfielders: Nicolas Höfler, Maximilian Eggestein, Ritsu Doan, Eren Dinkci, Vincenzo Grifo
• Attacker: Lucas Höler

In the upcoming match, Freiburg will heavily rely on Vincenzo Grifo, their top scorer with 6 goals, to spearhead the attack. Grifo’s knack for finding the net will be instrumental, especially against St. Pauli’s defense which has conceded an average of 1.2 goals per match this season.

Ritsu Doan, contributing significantly from the wings, will also be crucial in providing assists and creating chances. The battle between Freiburg’s forwards and St. Pauli’s defense, led by Eric Smith, will be one to watch.

In midfield, veteran Nicolas Höfler’s defensive capabilities and ball distribution will be vital in dictating the game’s tempo.

Freiburg Suspensions & Injuries

Injuries

Player	Injury	Expected return
Daniel-Kofi Kyereh	Knee surgery	Early March 2025
Bruno Ogbus	Achilles tendon injury	Out for season
Florent Muslija	Ankle injury	Late February 2025
Max Rosenfelder	Hip injury	Late February 2025
Manuel Gulde	Back injury	Early March 2025
Michael Gregoritsch	Illness	A few days
Lukas Kübler	Illness	A few days

Freiburg will be missing some crucial players in their next match against St. Pauli, particularly Bruno Ogbus, who is out for the season. The absence of Daniel-Kofi Kyereh impacts their creative midfield options, while illnesses of Gregoritsch and Kübler, if unresolved, could weaken their squad depth.

Their defensive lineup might adjust due to the absence of Gulde and the potential uncertainties around backline rotations. Nonetheless, they’ll need to rely on their remaining players to maintain their defensive resilience and attacking capabilities.

Freiburg Tactics and Formation

Freiburg’s Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: Lucas Höler
• Wingers: Ritsu Doan and Vincenzo Grifo
• Midfield Duo: Nicolas Höfler and Maximilian Eggestein
• Defensive Line: Christian Günter and Kiliann Sildillia as full-backs, with Matthias Ginter and Philipp Lienhart in central defense
• Goalkeeper: Noah Atubolu

Freiburg often employs a 4-2-3-1 formation, which allows them to be solid defensively while maintaining attacking flexibility. With Grifo and Doan providing width, Höler acts as the primary goal threat up front. The defensive stability offered by Ginter and Lienhart helps to cover for the full-backs when they push forward. This formation is designed to capitalize on counter-attacking opportunities, leveraging the pace and creativity of their wingers. Their current clean sheet record suggests a certain defensive resolve, key for neutralizing St. Pauli’s offensive play.

St. Pauli vs Freiburg Head-to-Head Statistics

Here’s a look at the last five matches between St. Pauli and Freiburg:

Home	Away	Result
Freiburg	St. Pauli	0-3
Freiburg	St. Pauli	1-1 (Extra time: 1-0)
Freiburg	St. Pauli	3-0
Freiburg	St. Pauli	4-3
St. Pauli	Freiburg	1-0

St. Pauli and Freiburg have had some intense encounters in recent years.
Their most recent match saw St. Pauli dominate with a 3-0 away win in September 2024, showcasing their potential to surprise.
Overall, the head-to-head record suggests a tightly contested rivalry, despite the differing league positions this season.

Odds accurate as of 13.02.2025 14:31, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.