Italy vs France Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

Italy vs France prediction, team news and lineups preview from the San Siro Stadium in Milan. Italy are in a fantastic position in this League A group to progress to the Nations League playoffs. Due to the head-to-head system, France must win this fixture by two clear goals to topple Luciano Spalletti’s men, so everything is on the line here this Sunday evening. Our expert Steve Wyss previews the contest looking for the best bets, angles and analysis. 

• Italy vs France Tip 1: Over 2.5 goals
• Italy vs France Tip 2: France win and both teams to score yes
• Italy vs France Tip 3: Bradley Barcola to score anytime

Italy vs France Prediction 1: Group dynamics should lead to open game full of goals

UEFA Nations League, Sunday 17th November, 19:45 (UK)

France are going to have no other option than to make this match a potential shootout. They have to win the match by a clear two goal margin to go level on the head to head and then oust Italy on goal difference. The easiest way to do that is of course prevail 2-0 exactly, but that is easier said than done. Italy may well sit back and look to absorb some pressure but at at some stage France will have to open up, take some risks and go for it.

Italy will get chances on the break and if they apply their gameplan to how they did in the reverse fixture which they won 3-1, then this bodes very well for them. The obvious bet here is to take over 2.5 goals. There is no scoreline here which suits both teams so someone will always have to push which can often lead to  a frantic match. The over 2.5 line line is an odds-against price which is quite attractive considering the situation. 

• Italy vs France Prediction 1: Over 2.5 goals (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.10
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Italy vs France Prediction 2: If France prevail, clean sheet looks unlikely

The target scoreline for France is to win 2-0 but that could be a difficult task against this Italian side which has scored in every group game. They Azzuri showed in the reverse fixture which they won 3-1 that in this Spalletti system they carry more threat and as a bare minimum should expect to score. The actual match result is difficult to predict here because a lot depends which direction the game goes. Should Italy get ahead early then there’s even the potential this game could be a damp squib, but if France play to their best they are more than capable of prevailing.

Les Bleus are 2.62 straight on the nose to win, but that price can be bumped up to 5.50 if France win and both teams score. If France are ahead to nil then at some stage Italy will either have to go for it, or should get some chances on the break. It just feels like a better angle of attack offering potentially more value should the French get the three points. Actually getting them to win the game might be the hardest part of this bet and their own motivational mindset can at times be questionable. But something like 1-2 or 1-3 does feel possible if they get their act together. 

• Italy vs France Prediction 2: France to win and both teams to score yes (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 5.50
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 3/10

Italy vs France Prediction 3: Barcola to bounce back after disappointing showing

There’s an argument to be made that Bradley Barcola is France’s most talented player in this squad, certainly in an attacking sense. He did not have a good game against Israel though and was below par, registering only one shot. Barcola was pulled after 71 mins but it felt like there was a lot more in the tank and he was maybe saving himself for the Italy game. 

He scored after just 13 seconds in the reverse fixture so Italy will be keeping close tabs on him, but the PSG man can surely take some confidence from his performance that day. He will be out  to prove a point in this fixture and we can probably expect him to fire in a few more attempts this time. Make sure to void this bet if he doesn’t start but of all the French attackers he looks overpriced to score anytime. I would trust him more than the likes of Kolo-Muani, Olise or Nkunku and he has the X-factor special ability if given the opportunity. 

• Italy vs France Prediction 3: Bradley Barcola to score anytime (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 4.75
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 2/10

Italy vs France Prediction odds via bet365 as at 09:00, November 15th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Italy vs France Injuries, Team News and Possible Lineups: Nkunku looking to force his way into the France team

Unless the manager wants to freshen things up then Italy could keep the same XI that beat Belgium 1-0 on Thursday. Important defender Riccardo Calafiori is injured for this international window. 

There is a case to be made that Christopher Nkunku should come into the side at the expense of one of the French attackers, most likely Randal Kolo Muani. Adrien Rabiot could also be a contender to start in midfield coming in for N’golo Kante. Key men Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele are not included in this current squad.

Italy possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma, Bastoni, Buongiorno, Di Lorenzo, Dimarco, Tonali, Rovella, Frattesi, Cambiaso, Barella, Retegui

France possible starting lineup:
Miagnan, T Hernandez, Upamecano, Konate, Kounde, Camavinga, Rabiot, Zaire-Emery, Barcola, Nkunku, Olise

Match OPTA Stats: France looking to break down tough looking Italian defence

• The last  three head to head meetings have been won 3-1 by one of these teams
• 7 of the last 9 meetings have gone over 2.5 goals
• France average the most shots per game in the group (18)
• Italy have the best xGA in the group (3.58)

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