Wolves vs Everton Prediction - Premier League Fixtures
At one point this season was a relegation six pointer fixture, now has slightly less pressure despite these two sides occupying the two spots directly above the relegation zone as 17th hosts 16th. Wolves are five points clear of both Ipswich and Leicester – two sides in terrible form with both having won just once in nine – whilst Everton are now a huge 15 points clear of the drop and will have their sights set on a strong finish. The Premier League is averaging 3.02 goals per-game this season, following on from the high of 3.28 gpg last season and that looks the way to play this one at the prices.
England, Premier League, Saturday, March 8th, 20:00 (UK)
- Wolves vs Everton Prediction 1: Over 2.5 goals (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.30
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 6/10 (TRACKED BET)
Both sides are under new management following sackings this season. When Vitor Pereira walked through the door on December 19th, Wolves were sat second from bottom in 19th, with just nine points from their 16 games, having only won twice, drawn three and lost 11, and were five points adrift of safety. Fast forward 11 games and they’ve flipped that deficit and are five points clear of the drop having picked up 13 points with four wins, one draw and six losses – the 14th best team in the league during that period. Wolves’ issues pre-Pereira under Gary O’Neill were the amount of goals they were shipping. They’d scored 24 (1.50 per-game) – more than the likes of Nottingham Forest and Newcastle – but they’d conceded 40 (2.50 per-game) – by far the worst in the league. Under Pereira they’re not scoring as many with 13 (1.18 per-game) but he has reduced the number they’re conceding with 16, though still a hefty 1.45 per-game.
When David Moyes was appointed Everton manager again on the 11th January, they were sixteenth in the league, only one point clear of the relegation zone, having only won three of 19 games all season. They had the lowest expected goals for with 18.33 (0.96 per-game), the second lowest shots-on-target with 63 (3.32 per-game) and had only scored 15 goals (0.79 per-game – their lowest average in 13 seasons). Fast forward two months and all looks a lot rosier now.
They have won four of Moyes’ eight league games – one more than Sean Dyche managed in 19 – taking them 15 points clear of the relegation zone. They’ve created 13.26 xG (1.66 per-game), had 38 shots-on-target (4.75 per-game) and scored 15 goals (1.88 per-game). They’ve collected the joint second most points and the fourth most expected points in the league since he arrived to prove it’s no fluke (albeit having played a game more than everyone else except Liverpool and Aston Villa).
So with both sides improving under their respective new managers, it has to be a positive bet here and that’s to back goals. Wolves have the best Over 2.5 goals strike rate in the whole league with a huge 74% of their matches seeing three or more goals (20 of 27 games). This record is similarly strong at Molineux with nine of their 13 home games seeing Over 2.5 goals (69%). However, if we remove the three matches involving red cards where the match dynamic changes, the success rate is 80% (eight of 10 games). Under David Moyes, five of Everton’s eight games have seen Over 2.5 goals with 24 goals at an average of 3.0 per-game. The reverse fixture saw Everton run out 4-0 winners, whilst this match last season ended 3-0 to Wolves.
Wolves vs Everton Prediction odds via bet365 as at 12:00, March 5th, 2025. Odds may now differ.
Wolves vs Everton Team News: Number of players missing for both sides
Both sides have a number of players missing which might go someway to explain the 2.30 odds we’re getting on Over 2.5 goals. The biggest one of course is Wolves’ best player and talisman Matheus Cunha who will miss the next three games at least after he was sent-off in the FA Cup against Bournemouth for violent conduct. Cunha will be a huge miss given he is Wolves’ top scorer with 13 goals as well as four assists. However, he has already missed two games for being banned in January, both of which saw Over 2.5 winners despite his absence. For Everton, they continue to be without joint top scorer Iliman Ndiaye and joint top assister Dwight McNeil. However, striker Beto has massively stepped up and scored five goals under Moyes whilst McNeil has been absent throughout all of the new managers eight game return.
Wolves possible starting lineup:
Jose Sa; Doherty, Bueno, Toti Gomes; Semedo, Andre, Joao Gomes, Ait-Nouri; Munetsi, Strand-Larsen, Bellegarde
Everton possible starting lineup:
Pickford; O’Brien, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Mykolenko; Gueye, Garner; Lindstrom, Doucoure, Harrison; Beto
Match OPTA Stats: Goals, goals, goals
- Wolves have lost six of their last eight Premier League games
- Everton are undefeated in their last seven matches in the Premier League
- 20 of Wolves’ 27 matches have seen over 2.5 goals
- At Molineux, nine of their 13 games have seen three or more goals
- Under David Moyes, five of Everton’s eight matches have seen over 2.5 goals
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