Southampton vs Crystal Palace Prediction: Betting Preview
Southampton vs Crystal Palace Prediction 1: Poor porous Saints
Despite being 17 points adrift of safety for rock bottom Southampton, there’s still 27 points up for grabs in the remaining nine games meaning they are not mathematically relegated just yet. However, 24 defeats in 29 games this season suggests relegation is all but confirmed. Crystal Palace meanwhile are the opposite to the Saints and find themselves in great form having lost just four of their last 21 matches across all competitions. They arrive on the south coast full of confidence and should really fancy their chances against the worst team and worst defence in the league. There should be more than a few goals here.
England, Premier League, Wednesday, April 2nd, 19:45 (UK)
- Southampton vs Crystal Palace Prediction 1: Over 2.5 goals (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.80
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 7/10 (TRACKED BET)
Southampton have lost their last five games and 11 of 12 since Ivan Juric was appointed at Christmas. The Saints sacked Russell Martin having lost 13 of 16 games in-charge, winning just once, only scoring 11 goals (0.69 per-game) and conceding 36 goals (2.25 per-game) including 10 directly from errors. It’s safe to say under Juric things haven’t really got any better. He’s also won just once, scored 10 goals (0.83 per-game) and conceded 34 goals (2.83 per-game), including nine directly from errors. Conceding goals is still the glaring issue with the Saints possessing the worst record in the league with 70 conceded in 29 games (2.41 per-game), which is no surprise when they are conceding the most shots per-game (17.9) and the most expected goals (80.51). The scary thing about that figure is that they’re over-achieving by +10.51 goals and given goalkeeper Aaron Ramsdale is posting a Post Shot xG – Goals Allowed figure of -3.8, they are due to concede even more goals with some regression to the mean due.
Infamously Derby County are statistically the worst ever Premier League side with only 11 points in the 2007/08 season. Southampton are only on nine points. They still need three points to avoid taking that title! Under Juric it doesn’t look likely anytime soon.
Crystal Palace have shown no signs of slowing down with 10 wins in their last 13 games across all competitions. It means since the end of October, they have picked up the fourth most points in the league, with only Liverpool, Arsenal and Nottingham Forest having collected more, suffering just four defeats in these 20 games. Their attacking output has been good, scoring two or more in nine of these games, compared to just once in their first nine games.
Defensively is interesting because unlike Aaron Ramsale for Southampton, Dean Henderson is ranked third in the Premier League this season forPS xG – GA with a figure of +3.9. However, Crystal Palace themselves could also be due some regression to the mean with them being the second biggest over-achievers defensively having only conceded 33 goals compared to 42.62 expected goals.
With brings me nicely on to the bet here. Southampton’s last 11 matches have all seen over 2.5 goals and at St Mary’s it’s been a healthy strike rate all season with 10 of 14 matches seeing three plus goals (71%). Only seven of Crystal Palace’s last 14 games have seen over 2.5 goals but they’re coming up against a defence that has conceded three or more goals in eight of their last 10 matches! The reverse fixture finished 2-1 with the bet having won after just 52 minutes.
Southampton vs Crystal Palace Prediction odds via bet365 as at 12:00, March 27th, 2025. Odds may now differ.
Southampton vs Crystal Palace Injuries, Team News and Possible Lineups Prediction: Mateta feeling fine
Southampton don’t have many injury concerns. Jan Bednarek (nose bleed) and Taylor Hardwood-Bellis suffered (thigh injury) suffered slight issues on international duty but nothing considered serious. Meanwhile William Smallbone (groin) and James Bree (hamstring) could return after being out injured. Crystal Palace should welcome back 12 goal top scorer Jean-Philippe Mateta after his nasty injury following the collision with Millwall keeper Liam Roberts that saw him require 25 stitches to his ear. Joel Ward is out with a calf strain, Will Hughes is serving a suspension for receiving 10 yellow cards and Cheick Doucoure (knee surgery) and Chadi Riad (ACL) are both out for the season.
Southampton possible starting lineup:
Ramsdale; Walker-Peters, Bella-Kotchap, Harwood-Bellis; Sugawara, Ugochukwu, Aribo, Manning; Dibling, Fernandes, Sulemana
Crystal Palace possible starting lineup:
Henderson; Richards, Lacroix, Guehi; Munoz, Wharton, Lerma, Mitchell; Sarr, Mateta, Eze
Match OPTA Stats: Goals, goals, goals at St. Mary’s
- Southampton have conceded at least 2 goals in 10 of their last 11 matches in the Premier League
- Southampton have been losing at both half time and full time in 6 of their last 8 matches
- There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Southampton’s last 11 games
- 10 of Southampton’s 14 home games have seen over 2.5 goals
- 7 of Crystal Palace’s last 14 games have seen three or more goals
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