Costa Rica vs Paraguay Prediction: Copa America 2024

We bring you our Costa Rica vs Paraguay prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview ahead of their meeting in the final group game at Copa America 2024 courtesy of Scott Thornton. 

These sides would have been ruing their luck when they were drawn with Brazil and Colombia. Qualification always seemed a big ask and both are out of the picture going into their final group game. Costa Rica picked up a surprise point against the Brazilians but Paraguay have lost both of their matches. 

Our Costa Rica vs Paraguay Prediction is: Paraguay to win 1-0

• Costa Rica vs Paraguay Tip 1: Paraguay To Win

• Costa Rica vs Paraguay Tip 2: Both Teams To Score – No
• Costa Rica vs Paraguay Tip 3: Julio Encisio To Score

Costa Rica vs Paraguay Prediction 1: The Favourites Have the Edge

South America, Copa America 2024, Wednesday, July 3rd, 02:00 (UK)

Costa Rica earned a draw with Brazil in their first game but the 3-0 defeat against Colombia now means that qualification to the knockout stages is almost impossible. They need Dorival Junior’s side to suffer a heavy defeat against Colombia and win this one by a wide margin. Unfortunately for Gustavo Alfaro’s men, they are the underdogs here so we are backing a Paraguay victory.

The Paraguayans haven’t picked up a single point in the Cope America so far but they have taken on Brazil and Colombia, two sides that harbour ambitions of lifting the trophy. They faced a resurgent Brazilian side as they lost their last match 4-1. Paraguay will be hoping to salvage some pride by beating Costa Rica.

Paraguay are unbeaten in their last five matches where they have been priced between 1.85 and 2.10 on the 1×2 market. They face a Costa Rica side that are still awaiting their first goal of the tournament. Paraguay, on the other hand, have found the net in both of their matches. 

• Costa Rica vs Paraguay Prediction 1: Paraguay To Win
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

Costa Rica vs Paraguay Prediction 2: Costa Rica’s Attack Looks Blunt

Creating chances has been a real problem for Costa Rica thus far. Admittedly, their two games have been extremely difficult but their attacking output has looked far less impressive than Paraguay’s. The Costa Ricans have an average xG of just 0.09 per game. The team average for the Copa America so far is 1.29.

As you’d expect, this poor xG is reflected in their shot numbers. They have racked up a total of just seven shots in their opening two matches and none of those have forced a save from the opposition goalkeeper. 

Paraguay haven’t faced an opponent that has been priced at odds of 4.00 since September 2023. They kept a clean sheet against Peru on that occasion as the game finished 0-0. The last two head-to-heads between these sides have also ended 0-0. The most recent encounter was way back in 2016 but Costa Rica’s recent woes in front of goal add credence to the fact that it should be a low-scoring affair. Therefore, we are backing both teams to score here. 

• Costa Rica vs Paraguay Prediction 2: Both Teams To Score – No (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.70
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Costa Rica vs Paraguay Prediction 3: Encisio Has Found His Rhythm

Julian Encisio has already scored once in this tournament. He found the net and managed four shots in Paraguay’s opening game against Colombia. The Brighton man failed to score against Brazil but he did have four attempts, one of which found the target. 

A meniscus tear derailed Encisio’s last season at club level. The injury kept him out for a large part of the season and he failed to regain his place in the starting eleven. He played just 475 minutes in the Premier League but will be hoping to rediscover his best form when he returns to Brighton after looking sharp this summer. 

Encisio was a key player for the Seagulls when they qualified for the Europa League in the 2022/23 season. His ability to operate in tight spaces and low centre of gravity made him a valuable asset in attack. He averaged 4.24 shots per 90 minutes played in that season against some of the world’s best defences in England’s top flight. Julio is still just 20 years of age and should have plenty of success against this weaker Costa Rican defence. 

• Costa Rica vs ParaguayPrediction 3: Julio Encisio To Score
• Best Odds: 4.33
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Costa Rica vs Paraguay Prediction odds via bet365 as at 08:51, June 29th, 2024. Copa America 2024 Odds may now differ.

Costa Rica vs Paraguay Possible Lineups: Paraguay Attack Looks More Menacing

Costa Rica have played with five at the back in both of their matches so far. The Paraguayans don’t have the attacking might of their previous two opponents but Gustavo Alfaro is unlikely to make wholesale changes in the last group game.

Andres Cubas was sent off for Paraguay in the 81st minute of their 4-1 defeat against Brazil for violent conduct so the manager will be forced to reshuffle their midfield here. He could revert to the 4-3-3 he used in their opening game against Colombia. Miguel Almiron and Julio Encisio will look to support Alex Arce in the final third as they hunt for that first win. 

Costa Rica possible starting lineup:
Sequeira; Quiros, Mitchell, Vargas, Calvo, Lassiter; Galo, Brenes, Aguilera; Zamora, Ugalde

Paraguay possible starting lineup:
Morinigo; Velazquez, Balbuena, Alerete, Espinoza; Villasanti, Caballero, Bobadilla; Almiron, Arce, Encisio

Copa America 2024 Match Stats: Poor Recent Form

• Costa Rica have won four of their last 10 matches but those wins have come against weaker opposition.
• The furthest that Costa Rica have gone in Copa America is the quarter-finals back in 2004.
• Paraguay have won Copa America on two occasions. Their last triumph came in 1979.
• Daniel Oscar Garnero has won just two of his seven matches as Paraguay boss.

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