Como vs Napoli Betting Tips and Predictions: Team News and Lineups Preview - bettingexpert
As we approach the Sunday lunchtime kickoff in Serie A, our expert Daniele Fisichella, has prepared his Como vs Napoli prediction preview.
This Serie A fixture promises not just the spectacle of top-tier Italian football but also a fascinating tactical battle between two distinctive managerial styles.
Newly-promoted Como have spent big this summer and in January to give manager Cesc Fabregas the best opportunity to achieve salvation by playing a brand of vibrant and attacking football. The Lariani produced their best game of the season last weekend defeating Fiorentina 2-0 at the ‘Artemio Franchi’.
Napoli have the Scudetto firmly in their sights. The Partenopei have preserved their unbeaten streak through draws against Roma, Udinese, and Lazio, maintaining a slim advantage over Inter Milan in the title race.
However, if Inter beat Genoa on Saturday night, Antonio Conte’s men will kick-off this match in second place in the table and this would be a test of their character under pressure.
Como vs Napoli Prediction: Fabregas’ style might unsettle the leaders
Italy, Serie A, Sunday, February 23rd, 11:45 (UK)
With 25 points on the board, Fabregas’ men have shown that they are far from the league’s pushovers, their form gaining them recognition as a team capable of pulling off surprises.
In fact Como can count themselves unlucky so far, having often collected less points than the underlying xG (expected goals) data would suggest.
At the ‘Sinigaglia’ Fabregas’ men have shown plenty of courage and initiative, often forcing stronger opponents to defend. They’ve lost three of their last four in front of their fans, but the narrow (2-1) defeats against AC Milan, Atalanta and Juventus did not truly reflect Como’s performances.
BETSiE projects the hosts will comfortably achieve salvation as their relegation chances currently stand at 0.8%. In fact Como should end the season with over 43 points, and from now on should collect 1.38 points per game.
This would be an over 30% improvement on their current points per game average (one), and suggests that backing Fabregas’ men to pick up good results, also against stronger sides, might be a smart choice.
Napoli, on the other hand, have a 32% projected chance of winning the Scudetto.
This marks nearly a 2% drop from projections three weeks ago, but still a substantial increase from our projections at the start of the season, when Napoli was given just a 3% chance of winning the title.
They’re now projected to finish the season with 79.7 points, trailing Inter Milan’s projected tally of 81.5 by just 1.8 points.
According to BETSiE this game has the highest probability (32.2%) of ending in a draw among all the Serie A games on matchday 26.
Considering that the projected goal total stands just at 1.79, the lowest tally of the matchday, betting on a draw at half time could offer value.
But, while Napoli come into the match with the weight of expectation as favorites, dismissing Como’s chances would be risky.
Fabregas has proven his tactical acumen, and his squad’s dynamic style ensures that a point, or perhaps more, is within the realm of possibility.
Both Teams To Score – Yes has won in five of Napoli’s last six games on the road and in each of the last four Como games at home.
Ultimately Como’s attacking style, particularly the robust performances from their in-form midfielders Diao and Nico Paz, could test Napoli’s backline, threatening to unravel Conte’s balance.
Our betting prediction leans towards a double chance (1-X), and Under 3.5 Goals total but with teams finding the back of the net.
- Como vs Napoli Prediction: Both Teams To Score – Yes (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.95
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 8/10 (TRACKED BET)
Como vs Napoli Prediction odds via bet365 as at 11:00, February 19th, 2025. Odds may now differ.
Como vs Napoli Injuries, Team News and Possible Lineups Prediction: Politano and Cutrone poised to start
Antonio Conte is likely to stick with the 3-5-2 formation used at the ‘Olimpico’ against Lazio last weekend. There will be one change with Politano being deployed as right wing-back and Mazzocchi playing in the opposite flank. Captain Di Lorenzo will slot into the back three to replace Juan Jesus. Raspadori and Lukaku will lead the Partenopei’s attack. Oliveira might be fit to make the bench.
For Como Patrick Cutrone might return to the starting XI at the expense of Caqueret. Diao, Strefezza and Nico Paz should play right behind the main striker. Kempf is ahead of Smolčić for a start in defense. January signing Butez will be in goal.
Como possible starting lineup:
Butez; Goldaniga, Kempf, Dossena, Valle; Da Cunha, Perrone; Strefezza, Nico Paz, Diao; Cutrone.
Napoli possible starting lineup:
Meret; Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Buongiorno; Politano, Anguissa, Lobotka, McTominay, Mazzocchi; Raspadori, Lukaku.
Match OPTA Stats: Napoli haven’t lost away since matchday one
- Cesc Fabregas’ Como are eight for ball possession in Serie A (53.8%), marginally ahead of Napoli (53%).
- Napoli are the team that has won the most away games in Italy’s top flight this season (eight, like Inter and Atalanta).
- The hosts have the fifth worst defence at home with 20 goals conceded. They’ve only kept two clean sheets (against Roma and Lecce) at the ‘Sinigaglia’.
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