8 Tips
1
1.57
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3 Tips
x
4.50
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0 Tips
2
5.75
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Bournemouth’s fantastic season under Andoni Iraola continued last week with a 3-1 win at Southampton to take them up into 5th in the league and what looks like the final Champions League spot. 11,000 packed into the Vitality Stadium for Real Madrid and Barcelona next season anyone?
Wolves admirably fought hard at Anfield last weekend but fell short once again to suffer a 16th defeat of the season in just 25 games leaving themselves just two points above in the final position of safety in 17th. Bournemouth should really fancy their chances against one of the leakiest sides division especially having put four past them in the reverse fixture.
England, Premier League, Saturday, February 22nd, 15:00 (UK)
New Wolves manager Vitor Pereira took over the club on the 19th December with the team in 19th having picked up just nine points from 16 matches having only won two games, drawn three and lost 11. Despite having scored 24 goals (1.5 per-game), more than the likes of Nottingham Forest and Newcastle, they’d conceded 40 goals (2.5 per-game) – by far the worst in the division. Fast forward nine games and they’ve picked up 10 points in his time having won three, drawn one and lost five – the 13th best record in the league during his tenure. They’re not scoring as many with just 11 (1.22 per-game) but he’s reduced the number they’re conceding with 14, though still 1.56 per-game. In terms of expected goals, xG for, xG against and expected points, they are all very much in-line with Wolves’ actual output to paint an accurate picture of Pereira’s performance.
With Bournemouth sat in 5th on 43 points with 13 games to go, Andoni Iraola needs just six points to break their record Premier League points haul set by himself last season when they finished 12th. Their record finish is 9th (46 points) set in 2016/17 under Eddie Howe and given they rank as the 3rd best team this season based on expected points, there’s no reason to suggest they won’t set record breaking points and positions this season likely culminating in European football.
Their brilliant season is based on their ability to regularly create chances of a high quality nature. They average the 3rd most shots in the league (16.1 per-game), whilst they generate the 2nd most expected goals (52.83) – more than the likes of Arsenal, Man City and Chelsea. Despite conceding the 6th most shots per-game (13.8), they still have the 5th best expected goals against record (35.79), though they are out-performing this by +6.79 goals compared to the actual amount they’ve conceded (29).
The bet I like here is Bournemouth’s makeshift striker Dango Ouattara to score at 3.0. Since moving into the striker position Ouattara has six goals in six games, including a hat-trick and a brace. He’s had 15 shots during this period at an average of 2.5 per-game despite facing all of Liverpool, Chelsea and Newcastle. Given Bournemouth are just 1.57 to score over 1.5 goals and 2.75 to score over 2.5 goals, it makes Ouattara’s price really attractive considering it’s bigger than the Cherries to score three. Wolves goalkeeper Jose Sa ranks as the worst goalkeeper in the league this season based on Post Shot xG – Goals Allowed with -5.4.
Bournemouth vs Wolves Prediction odds via bet365 as at 12:00, February 20th, 2025. Odds may now differ.
Dango Ouattara being used as a makeshift striker is a result of the continued absence of traditional strikers Evanilson and Enes Unal. Evanilson is out to at least April with a broken foot, whilst Unal is out for the season having torn his ACL in training last month. James Hill (thigh), Adam Smith (muscle) and Julio Soler (U20 Championships) remain absent. Longer-term issues persist for Marco Senesi and Julian Araujo (both surgery). Wolves’ injury list shows no signs are shortening anytime soon. Hee-chan Hwang (hamstring), Yerson Mosquera (cruciate ligament), Sasa Kalajdzic (cruciate ligament) and Jorgen Strand Larsen (hamstring) are long-term issues whilst Emmanuel Agbadou and Joao Gomes both picked up knocks against Liverpool and are doubtful.
Bournemouth possible starting lineup:
Kepa; Cook, Zabarnyi, Huijsen, Kerkez; Adams, Christie; Brooks, Kluivert, Semenyo; Ouattara
Wolves possible starting lineup:
Jose Sa; Doherty, Bueno, Toti Gomes; Semedo, Andre, Bellegarde, Ait-Nouri; Sarabia, Guedes, Cunha
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Both Teams To Score (Ordinary Time) (ORD)
Asian Handicap -1.5 (ORD)
Asian Handicap -1.25 (ORD)
Asian Handicap -1 (ORD)
Asian Handicap 1.5 (ORD)
Asian Handicap -3 (ORD)
Asian Handicap -2.5 (ORD)