Penarol vs Botafogo Prediction - Copa Libertadores

We’ve reached the semi-finals of the Copa Libertadores and our South American expert, Nathan Joyes, is on hand to provide his Penarol vs Botafogo prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview.

Botafogo hammered Penarol 5-0 at the Nilton Santos last week, and although the tie has almost been settled before a ball is kicked in Montevideo, there are a few angles that have caught Nathan’s attention.

• Penarol vs Botafogo Tip 1: Penarol to score first half
• Penarol vs Botafogo Tip 2: Leonardo Fernandez over 1.5 shots on target
• Penarol vs Botafogo Tip 3: L

Penarol vs Botafogo Prediction 1: Hosts must score

Brazil, Copa Libertadores, Thursday, October 31st, 00:30 (UK)

Penarol were expected to struggle in Brazil but the wheels came off and Botafogo buried them. A 5-0 defeat has all but ended their hopes of securing a place in the final, and nothing but a major miracle will see last week’s nightmare reversed.

What they do have in their favour is one of the best home atmospheres in not only the country, but perhaps South America. However, CONMEBOL have warned the fans that a repeat display similar to the one against Flamengo will bring about not only a hefty fine, but also the 2025 group stage will be played behind closed doors. A tough decision to be made by the ultras.

Pyros or not, they’ll bring the noise, and Penarol must start quickly. In three of their five home matches this season, they’ve scored in the first half. One of those they failed in was against Flamengo, but they were holding onto a lead, rather than chasing one.

Penarol are on an 18-match unbeaten run at home in the Libertadores, and a positive approach (and potential early goal) will certainly lift the mood. At odds-against, it’s a big price worth chancing.

• Penarol vs Botafogo Prediction 1: Penarol to score first half
• Best Odds: 2.20
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 6/10

Penarol vs Botafogo Prediction 2: Star man to produce

For fans living in hope, they will be hoping their main man can produce a moment of magic. On loan attacking midfielder Leonardo Fernandez has taken Penarol to the next level, and is the main reason as to why they are at this stage of the tournament.

The Uruguayan set piece specialist has scored 12 goals in 27 league appearances, as well as three goals and provided five assists in the Libertadores. All three of those goals have come at home (two vs Rosario, plus the opener against The Strongest), and the 25-year-old heads into this fixture after scoring two screamers domestically.

All the play will be going through Fenandez, who isn’t afraid to shoot. The Toluca player had three shots in the reverse leg, including one from the halfway line – something he also tried against Flamengo.

Expect strikes from distance, set pieces and trying to catch Botafogo from far out, too. Considering Penarol’s need for five goals, it would be surprising if Fernandez isn’t trying his luck as often as he can.

• Penarol vs Botafogo Prediction 2: Leonardo Fernandez over 1.5 shots on target
• Best Odds: 2.10
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 6/10

Penarol vs Botafogo Prediction 3: Argentine to get involved

It would be foolish to rule out Botafogo spoiling the party further in Montevideo, who don’t have a league game until November 6th, so full strength team selection is expected from Artur Jorge.

The Portuguese head coach loves Thiago Almada, and who can blame him? The Argentine – who became the most expensive transfer in Brazilian history – has been at the heart of everything Botafogo have done since arriving.

He may not have scored in the 5-0 victory, but his contribution was excellent. The no.10 had three shots – with one of them finding the target – and was trusted to play the 90 minutes. That’s worth mentioning as Jorge made five changes in the second half but kept his magician on, hoping he could create even more opportunities for his side.

Able to find pockets of space in and around the 18-yard box, Almada will have his chances in this second leg, especially with Penarol pushing to try and reduce the deficit. Any dangerous free kicks will be given to the Argentine, and playing under little pressure, may be more expressive due to the circumstances.

Almada and Fernandez are the key no.10s for both sides, and both can have a say in this second leg.

• Penarol vs Botafogo Prediction 3: Fernandez and Thiago Almada over 0.5 shots on target
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

Penarol vs Botafogo Prediction odds via bet365 as at 09:00, October 28th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Penarol vs Botafogo Possible Lineups: Visitors may rotate

Penarol possible starting lineup:
Aguerre; Olivera, Rodriguez, Mendez, Milans, Garcia, Darias, Cabrera, Fernandez, Stabile, Cabo

Botafogo possible starting lineup:
  Victor; Telles, Barboza, Bastos, Vitinho, Freitas, Gregore, Almada, Savarino, Henrique, da Cruz

Penarol vs Botafogo Match Stats

• Penarol are unbeaten in their last 18 Libertadores matches at home.
• Fernandez and Almada hit the target in the reverse leg.
• No team has ever come back from a 5-0 defeat at this stage of the tournament before.

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