Southampton vs Aston Villa Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview
Josh Ingram is here to look at this Southampton vs Aston Villa prediction betting preview ahead of the weekend’s action. Southampton earned an unwanted title last weekend. They became the team with the earliest relegation in Premier League history. Saints subsequently sacked Ivan Juric in response to this, but he was the wrong appointment in the first place.
Aston Villa will travel in high spirits just two points behind the coveted Champions League palace in fifth. This fixture is a tough spot for Villa as it’s sandwiched between two quarter-final clashes with PSG. Villa should, if season trends continue, dominate proceedings while scoring a decent number of goals.
Many teams have had joy on the South Coast this season, with 9/15 visitors scoring three or more goals. Rotation is expected, but this shouldn’t stop Villa, who are in fine form. It could give players who have been bit part pieces a chance to impress.
Southampton vs Aston Villa Prediction: Malen to be the main man
England, Premier League, Saturday, April 12th, 15:00 (UK)
Aston Villa’s second half of the season charge is partially fueled by the injection of quality from their January signings. Marco Asensio is the stand-out of the lot. Marcus Rashford has also put in some impressive showings. In a sense, the forgotten man is the only permanent January signing, Donyell Malen. The Dutch forward wasn’t even included in the Champions League squad. This should mean he starts and plays the full game away at Southampton. Rest and rotation will come into play with others due to the Wednesday, Saturday, and Tuesday schedule.
The opposition in question is managerless and already relegated. In all honesty, a caretaker manager would be better suited than Juric. Simon Rusk, the caretaker manager, has a limit on what he can do. This squad of Saints players isn’t of Premier League calibre. Russell Martin, former Southampton boss, admitted this week that the Championship squad was stronger than the current one.
The Saints’ defensive numbers make for grim reading. In almost every metric, they are the worst. At St Marys, they have conceded more than away. They can’t stop their opponent from scoring; it’s as simple as that, even with a back five. On average, Southampton have scored 2.39 goals a game, but at home, this jumps up to 2.67. When the opposition is averaging 1.90 xG per game, it’s so hard to keep the ball out of the net. Aaron Ramsdale has the most unenviable job in the league.
Malen was in high spirits after his goal and performance against Forest, saying, “Of course, if you’re coming new to a club, you want to get your goals in as soon as possible. I had to wait a few weeks, a few games, try to stay patient and train hard. I’m happy I could help.” A hungry player playing in a confident, well-performing team is dangerous, especially when facing a relegated team playing for nothing but some pride.
The BETSiE projections for the game are closer than I anticipated, with the Saints projected 1.12 goals and the Villians 1.94 goals. A difference of 0.82 goals. It’s hard to see Southampton scoring with Villa improving defensively of late. Rotation could play a part in it being a closer game. If this happens, the somewhat rotated Villa side will have far too much firepower to be in danger and should be more than capable of creating enough chances to score at least twice.
Since joining, Malen hasn’t had the luxury of many starts. Of his eight appearances, he has started twice. He only recently scored his first goal off the bench vs Brighton and followed it up with another goal against Forest, totalling just 233 minutes in the Premier League.
In that time, Malen has had a total of nine shots while accumulating 1.72xG. The former Borussia Dortmund man should be chomping at the bit to follow up on his start and goal from last week. I wouldn’t put people off also backing the brace with nominal stakes.
- Southampton vs Aston Villa Prediction: Donyell Malen to score (TRACKED BET) & Donyell Malen to score 2+ goals (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 3.40 & 17.00
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 10/10 (TRACKED BET) & 2.5/10 (TRACKED BET)
Southampton vs Aston Villa Prediction odds via bet365 as at 12:00, April 9th, 2025. Odds may now differ.
Southampton vs Aston Villa Team News: Caretaker Manager and Possible Rotation for Villa
Southampton has a full complement to pick from, apart from Flynn Downes, who accumulated ten yellow cards and will miss this game. More importantly, the focus is on who’s in the dugout. Simon Rusk will be taking charge in a caretaker role until the end of the season. Adam Lallana will be part of Rusk’s backroom team as a coach. It’s a free hit for Rusk and his staff, as they are already relegated. In fairness, he can’t be much worse than what has come before him.
Ross Barkley is out for this one and should be the only injured player not to feature. Villa have been riddled with injuries this season, so it makes a change that they are relatively injury-free. Champions League rotation should cause changes in the starting eleven. Emery opted for these changes against Forest. Depending on the first leg, the Spaniard will likely do the same once more. Due to the quality of their opponent, Emery will be more inclined to chop and change.
Southampton possible starting lineup:
Ramsdale; Walker-Peters, Bednerak, Harwood-Bellis, Manning; Aribo, Ugochukwu, Dibling, Fernandes, Sulemana; Archer
Aston Villa possible starting lineup:
Martinez; Garcia, Disasi, Mings, Maatsen; Onana, Tielemans, Malen, Asensio, Rogers; Watkins
Match Stats: Saints in search for goal
- In the last five meetings in the Premier League, Villa has won the last four to nil, and Saints won 1-0 back in November 2021.
- A singular John Duran goal separated the sides in December, with Villa taking all three points.
- The last player to score for Saints against Villa was Adam Armstrong, who is currently on loan at West Brom.
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