Man Utd vs Arsenal Prediction: Betting Preview
Man Utd vs Arsenal Prediction 1: Arsenal add to Utd woe
Despite Man Utd being 16 points clear of the relegation zone, their current position of 14th really paints the picture of how bad they are. And unless they finish higher than 14th, it will be there lowest finishing position for 51 years when they ended up 21st and relegated to the 2nd tier. Arsenal meanwhile fell to 13 points behind leaders Liverpool after only drawing at Nottingham Forest last week. Despite having a game in hand, they remain 26.0 to win the league. However, having beaten PSV 7-1 in the Champions League round of 16 1st leg, there is no need for them to have anything but full focus on this match.
England, Premier League, Sunday, March 9th, 16:30 (UK)
- Man Utd vs Arsenal Prediction 1: Arsenal to win (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.80
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 6/10 (TRACKED BET)
When Erik ten Hag was sacked at the end of October, Man Utd were 14th in the Premier League with just three wins from their opening nine games having collected just 11 points. They’d score just eight goals from 15.65 xG, whilst conceding 11 from 17.52 xG. Based on expected points, they ranked as the 11th best team in the league, underperforming by 1.95 points.
Since Ruben Amorim’s first fixture in charge on 24th November, Man Utd have won five, drawn three and lost eight in his 16 games, totalling 18 points – just the 15th best side in that period. They’ve scored 21 goals from 21.73 xG, whilst conceding 27 from 26.44 xG. Based on expected points, they rank as the 15th best team in the league, slightly underperforming by 0.85 points. Essentially, despite the £9.25M outlay for Amorim, the team has got even worse.
Against top eight opposition, his record reads won one, drawn one, lost five with the solitary victory in the derby against Man City in what has turned out to be one of the worst City teams for years. They’ve also lost to the likes of Wolves, Crystal Palace and Tottenham, whilst being knocked out of the League Cup in the quarter-finals by Spurs and the FA Cup 5th round by Fulham on penalties.
Yet despite all of this, Arsenal are 1.80 to win the match which is a huge increase compared to the 1.29 they were in this fixture in May last season. And that was by no means a second string Utd side with the likes of Hojlund, Garnacho, Amad, Mainoo, Dalot and Onana all starting as Arsenal took all three points with a 1-0 victory. Despite Arsenal being without all of Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz, Gabriel Martinelli and Gabriel Jesus from their attack, they’ve proved this week they can thrive with the likes of Nwaneri, Trossard, Merino and Odegaard as they put seven past PSV.
What is concerning under Amorim is the amount of goals they are conceding, having let in two or more in 10 of their last 14 Premier League games. Even more concerning is the rate it’s happening at Old Trafford, with the opposition having scored two or more in six of Amorim’s eight home games. And you’d have to think with Arsenal possessing the best defensive record in the league with just 23 goals conceded in 27 games and the best xG against, that if they score two, it’s a very long way back for Utd. In the reverse fixture at the Emirates where Arsenal won 2-0, it was very one sided with the Gunners creating 2.16 expected goals to Utd’s 0.22.
Man Utd vs Arsenal Prediction odds via bet365 as at 12:00, March 5th, 2025. Odds may now differ.
Man Utd vs Arsenal Injuries, Team News: Arsenal’s attacking absence
Arsenal are missing Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz, Gabriel Martinelli and Gabriel Jesus from their attack and with those players having scored 23 of their 51 Premier League goals this season, the Gunners are missing 45% of their goals. Takehiro Tomiyasu remains a long-term absence with a knee injury. Man Utd have a big list of absentees across the squad. Joint-top scorer Amad Diallo has been a revelation under Amorim with eight goals but is out for the season with an ankle injury. Kobbie Mainoo is missing too and Amorim has become so desperate with his strikers he’s resorted to playing Mainoo upfront. New signing in left wing-back Patrick Dorgu is suspended following his red card v Ipswich and replacement Luke Shaw is still missing, whilst Lisandro Martinez is out long-term with an ACL injury.
Man Utd possible starting lineup:
Onana; de Ligt, Maguire, Yoro; Mazraoui, Ugarte, Casemiro, Dalot; Zirkzee, Hojlund, Fernandes
Arsenal possible starting lineup:
Raya; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori; Odegaard, Partey, Rice; Nwaneri, Merino, Trossard
Match OPTA Stats: Awesome Arsenal
- Arsenal are undefeated in 16 of their last 17 matches in the Premier League
- Man Utd lost eight of their 16 league matches under Ruben Amorim
- Utd lost five of eight against top eight opposition
- Utd conceded two or more in 10 of their last 14 Premier League games
- Arsenal have won the last four Premier League meetings with Man Utd
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