Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction - Premier League Fixtures
Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction 1: Two attacks not firing
Two sides at one time this season described as ‘title contenders’ take on each other here 15 and 21 points respectively behind league leaders Liverpool as Arsenal host Chelsea at the Emirates Stadium on Sunday. As the points gap shows, both sides come into this out of form with Arsenal failing to win any of their last three league games and Chelsea having lost four of their last five away games in the Premier League. Arsenal’s issues have been in-front of goal scoring just three in their last four games and with the best defence in the league, we could be in for a low scoring game here.
England, Premier League, Sunday, March 16th, 13:30 (UK)
- Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction 1: Under 2.5 goals (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.90
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 6/10 (TRACKED BET)
Despite having a game in-hand on league leaders Liverpool, Arsenal are now odds of 41.0 to win the Premier League with just 10 games remaining and that still includes a trip to Anfield. Their issues this season have been a combination of injuries, ill-discipline and chance creation from open play. They’ve been missing Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz, Gabriel Martinelli and Gabriel Jesus from their attack for a number of weeks who combined have scored 23 of their 52 Premier League goals this season – that’s a huge chunk of 44% of their goals.
Discipline wise they’ve picked the most red cards in the league with five – two more than anyone else. This despite them picking up the fifth fewest yellow cards in the league. They have a habit of losing their heads at key moments. Leandro Trossard was sent-off versus Manchester City at 2-1 up (drew 2-2), Declan Rice was sent-off versus Brighton at 1-0 up (drew 1-1) and William Saliba was sent-off at Bournemouth at 0-0 (lost 2-0). And it’s seemingly influencing the younger players as despite 18 year-old Myles Lewis-Skelly playing just 13 times for the first team, he’s already received two straight red cards.
Offensively, Arsenal have only scored the fifth most goals (52) from the fourth most expected goals (55.86). They’ve also only scored 40 goals from open play and only rank as the seventh best side in-terms of open play xG with 46.02. Contrast with leaders Liverpool who’ve scored 56 goals from open play. Their scoring, or lack of, has been noticed with their injuries recently, and yet despite having 50 shots in their last three games, they’ve managed just nine on-target (3.0 per-game), well down on their 4.9 per-game seasonal average. As a result, five of their last six games have gone under 2.5 goals and given they have won just three games in 13 against top-half opposition this season, this could be for another struggle trying to break down Chelsea.
Chelsea meanwhile have issues of their own upfront with 2nd top scorer Nicolas Jackson out injured and top scorer Cole Palmer having not scored in seven games. After Jackson comes Noni Madueke who has just three goals since the beginning of October, before left-back Marc Cucurella finds himself joint fourth in the list with four goals! They come up against an Arsenal defence who have the best record in the league with just 24 goals conceded in 28 games, fully merited by having the best xG against as well (26.73). The reverse fixture finished 1-1 in-which it took an hour to break the deadlock. We could be in for another low scoring fixture here.
Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction odds via bet365 as at 12:00, March 13th, 2025. Odds may now differ.
Arsenal vs Chelsea Team News: Arsenal’s attacking absence
Gabriel Martinelli made his comeback from injury against Manchester United last weekend playing the last half an hour from the bench before following that up with an 11 minute cameo appearance against PSV. He could be fit enough to start this weekend in attack. Saka, Havertz, Jesus and Tomiyasu remain out. For Chelsea, Cole Palmer was suffering from a fever last time out against Leicester but should have recovered by now. Attackers Nicolas Jackson (hamstring), Noni Madueke (hamstring), Mykhailo Mudryk (suspended), Marc Guiu (leg injury) and David Fofana (knee injury) are all missing. Full-back Malo Gusto remains doubtful with a knock.
Arsenal possible starting lineup:
Raya; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori; Odegaard, Partey, Rice; Nwaneri, Merino, Trossard
Chelsea possible starting lineup:
Sanchez; Fofana, Adarabioyo, Colwill, Cucurella; Enzo, Caicedo; Sancho, Palmer, Nkunku; Neto
Match OPTA Stats: Arsenal to dictate outcome
- Arsenal are undefeated in 17 of their last 18 matches in the Premier League
- Chelsea having lost four of their last five away games in the Premier League
- Arsenal missing Saka, Havertz and Jesus – 33% of their goals
- Arsenal have the best defence in the league with just 24 goals conceded in 28 games
- There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 5 of Arsenal’s last 6 league games
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