Arsenal vs Brentford Prediction: Betting Preview
Arsenal vs Brentford Prediction: Arsenal’s eyes on Europe
Despite Liverpool losing 3-2 at Fulham last weekend, Arsenal failed to take advantage the day before with only a 1-1 draw at Everton. It means the Gunners remain 11 points behind Liverpool with only seven games and 21 points to play for. This includes a trip to Anfield in five games time, which would be days after a potential Champions League semi-final second leg. Meanwhile, Brentford sit 12th in the league, four points ahead of Man Utd behind them, perhaps with an eye on Fulham six points ahead in 8th. The Bees record league finish is 9th in 2022/23 and they could eclipse it with a strong finish to the season.
England, Premier League, Saturday, April 12th, 17:30 (UK)
- Arsenal vs Brentford Prediction 1: Under 2.5 goals (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.10
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 5/10 (TRACKED BET)
Even after Arsenal’s excellent 3-0 first leg win over Real Madrid on Tuesday night, it’s likely everyone connected with the club will still have at least one eye on the return leg next week. Reigning champions and 15 times European Cup Winners Real Madrid have progressed five times in the Champions League having lost the first leg and in their European history have recovered three times from three goal deficits to make the next round. The magic of the club backed by the Madridistas should never be underestimated. Mikel Arteta started none of Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli, Jurrien Timber, Martin Odegaard nor Thomas Partey against Everton before hosting Real and an element of rotation could again be in-store here.
Despite their injury issues this season, Arsenal have only lost three games all and are unbeaten in 20 of their 21 matches. But their lack of firepower has been telling, especially recently, with 12 of their last 18 matches seeing Under 2.5 goals (67%), including six of their last seven. There’s a case to suggest three of their top four scorers will be missing in Havertz (9 goals – injured), Saka (6 goals – rested) and Martinelli (6 goals – rested) seriously denting their attacking output, along with their major threat from set-pieces in Gabriel (3 goals – injured). Arsenal only sit 7th for open play goals (33) yet they are 4th for set-piece goals (11). This weekends opponents in Brentford have the best record in the league for conceding from dead balls with just two goals all season.
Arsenal have only managed five goals more than Brentford but they possess the best defence in the league with only 26 goals conceded in 31 games. It’s fully justified, with them conceding the fewest shots per-game with just 9.5, resulting in the fewest expected goals against in the league (29.68). A long season may well be beginning to catch up with Brentford as six of their last 10 have finished Under 2.5 goals and they’ve scored one goal or fewer in seven of those games. This on top of failing to score in four of six games against the current top four. Brian Mbeumo (16 goals) and Yoane Wissa (14 goals) are having fantastic seasons with both have broken their previous best Premier League total goals in a season records, but Mbeumo only has two goals in his last nine games and Wissa just three in his last 10.
Arsenal vs Brentford Prediction odds via bet365 as at 12:00, April 11th, 2025. Odds may now differ.
Arsenal vs Brentford Injuries, Team News: Arteta and Arsenal likely to rotate
Bukayo Saka and Declan Rice both picked up late knocks against Real Madrid leading to being substituted and there’s a chance neither will be risked here, particularly Saka after his long injury lay-off. Jurrien Timber was also withdrawn late on against Madrid and Ben White may well step in again. Gabriel, Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus are all out for the season, Takehiro Tomiyasu is out for the year, while Riccardo Calafiori is sidelined by a knee issue picked up over the international break. For Brentford, Josh Dasilva continues to be absent with a serious knee injury and isn’t yet ready to return. Fabio Carvalho and Thiago Rodrigues are also missing, with Carvalho likely done for the year and Thiago not expected back until next month.
Arsenal possible starting lineup:
Raya; White, Saliba, Kwior, Lewis-Skelly; Partey, Jorginho, Merino; Nwaneri, Trossard, Sterling
Brentford possible starting lineup:
Flekken; Ajer, Collins, van den Berg, Lewis-Potter; Norgaard, Janelt; Mbuemo, Damsgaard, Schade; Wissa
Match OPTA Stats: Low scoring clash on the cards
- Arsenal are undefeated in 20 of their last 21 matches in the Premier League
- 12 of Arsenal’s last 18 matches have seen Under 2.5 goals
- There have been Under 2.5 goals scored in 6 of Arsenal’s last 7 league games
- 6 of Brentford’s last 10 have finished Under 2.5 goals
- Brentford have the best record in the league for conceding from dead balls with just two goals all season
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