Napoli vs AC Milan Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

With nine games to go the Partenopei haven’t yet surrendered hopes to win the Scudetto but, after collecting just eight points in the past eight matches, they desperately need a success on Sunday. The Rossoneri are ninth in the table, six points behind Bologna in fourth, and before the international break have won back-to-back league games only for the first time since September 2024. 

Who better than our football expert, Daniele Fisichella, to preview Napoli vs AC Milan, the biggest match of the weekend in Serie A.

Post international-break big games are usually low scoring

Italy, Serie A, Sunday, March 30th, 19:45 (UK)

Antonio Conte (pictured below) has a reputation that precedes him. When he whispered “trust me” at the conclusion of his post-Fiorentina conference, it wasn’t just empty rhetoric. 

It’s a rallying cry to the Naples faithful, a reminder of his enviable record in clutch phases of the league. In his past five full seasons in Serie A Conte’s teams (Juventus between 2011 and 2014 and Inter Milan in 2019/20 and 2020/21) have gained on average 2.22 points per game in the last nine matches of the campaign. 

Who could forget the 2011/2012 season when the Bianconeri, trailing by four points with nine games remaining, surged to the top, securing the title with an unbeaten run? Such experiences bolster the belief that, with Conte at the helm, Napoli can indeed dream of holding the Scudetto aloft once more.

AC Milan travel to the south of the peninsula with a solid track record in recent away matches. Unbeaten in their last games on the road in all competitions, the Rossoneri’s form suggests the game will be a closely contested one. 

A set-piece showdown?

The hosts need a win as they are striving to keep their Champions League hopes alive. However, with Santiago Gimenez’s recent injury scare now thankfully behind him, Milan enters the fray with a complete squad.

Taking a deeper dive into the statistics of both sides reveals some interesting insights, particularly concerning set pieces. Ignoring Simone Inzaghi’s Inter, who tops most significant Serie A statistical categories—including having taken the most corners with a total of 184—the focus shifts to AC Milan sitting in second place with 174 corners. Lazio follows closely with 173, while Napoli has taken 172 corners, placing them fourth in this category.

Expect the match to see both sides keen on exploiting the wings, where their talent lies in abundance, resulting in numerous crosses being whipped in. 

Historically, fixtures following an international hiatus tend to be low-scoring among Italy’s top clubs. Last season, Juventus edged out AC Milan with a 1-0 win, while the Derby della Madonnina ended in a tight 1-1 draw.

This trend seems to persist this season, with Inter and Juventus each pulling off narrow 1-0 victories against Roma and Lazio, respectively. Similarly, Napoli claimed a 1-0 victory over the Giallorossi, and AC Milan played out a goalless draw against Juventus. In betting terms, a double chance for the visitors (X2) paired with under five goals could offer an enticing opportunity to double any stakes, reflecting the likelihood of a closely fought, low-scoring contest.

BETSiE Projections: MD 31		HGF	AGF	GD	GT	Home Win %	Draw %	Away Win %
Napoli vs AC Milan		1.25	0.88	0.36	2.13	44.7%	29.0%	26.2%

• Napoli vs AC Milan Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.91
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10 (TRACKED BET)

Napoli vs AC Milan Prediction odds via bet365 as at 14:35, March 26th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Napoli vs AC Milan Team News: Neres on the bench, Gimenez is a doubt

David Neres is finally available for Napoli, prompting Conte’s tactical dilemma: stick with the 3-5-2 formation or revert to the 4-3-3? Alex Meret will start in goal, with a back three consisting of Amir Rrahmani, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, and Alessandro Buongiorno. 

Matteo Politano and Leonardo Spinazzola are expected to occupy the wings. In central midfield, alongside Stanislav Lobotka and Scott McTominay, Billy Gilmour should be preferred to André-Frank Zambo Anguissa, Upfront, Romelu Lukaku will partner with Giacomo Raspadori.

In the AC Milan’s camp Malick Thiaw and Matteo Gabbia will be the centre-back pair. The only change from the last match is in midfield, where with Yunus Musah suspended, Seko Fofana is set to play alongside Warren Bondo. The trio behind the striker will likely comprise Tijjani Reijnders alongside Christian Pulisic and Rafael Leão on the wings. Up front, the fitness of Santiago Gimenez will be assessed, with Tammy Abraham on standby.

Napoli possible starting lineup:
Meret; Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Buongiorno; Politano, Gilmour, Lobotka, McTominay, Spinazzola; Lukaku, Raspadori.

AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Maignan; Walker, Thiaw, Gabbia, Theo Hernandez; Bondo, Fofana; Pulisic, Reijnders, Leao; Gimenez.

Match Stats: Good omens for Coinceçao’s men

• The Rossoneri have not lost in their last six away matches against Napoli across all competitions.
• Based on expected goals data Napoli would be third in the table, 6.03 points behind Inter Milan and just 2.83 points ahead of AC Milan in fifth position. 
• The Partenopei have the best defence at home with only 10 goals conceded (from 10.82 xG).
• The visitors have the third best attack on the road for xG (28.54), but have only scored 21 times.
• Ten out of 14 AC Milan away matches have ended with both teams on the scoresheet, that’s the second highest record in Serie A behind Empoli (11/15). 

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