Real Madrid vs AC Milan Prediction - Champions League Fixtures

The two most successful teams in this illustrious competition’s history with a combined 22 Champions League titles face off at the Bernabeu for the first time in 14 years as Josh Ingram oversees a Real Madrid vs AC Milan prediction, team news and lineups preview.

The defending Champions may have been embarrassed by Barcelona the last time they played, but the Champions League has been their safety net in recent years, a competition in which they dominate. AC Milan has had a stuttering start to their European campaign with one win so far, and going away to Real Madrid is the last thing you want when needing a win. It sets up an interesting clash between the two. 

• Real Madrid vs AC Milan Tip 1: Real Madrid Win and Under 5 Goals
• Real Madrid vs AC Milan Tip 2: Rudiger Over 0.5 Shots
• Real Madrid vs AC Milan Tip 3: Emerson Royal to be Booked

Real Madrid vs AC Milan Prediction 1: Real Madrid to exorcise El Clasico demons

Spain, Champions League, Tuesday, November 5th, 20:00 (UK)

Due to the horrible scenes in Valencia, Real Madrid’s game against them this past weekend was called off and rightly so. Now, when it comes to this fixture, should we feel sorry for AC Milan? Los Blancos have had a week and a half to sit and stew on what happened. The lesson they were taught at home by Flicks Barca’s side will still be at the forefront of their mind. It’s not a result you forget quickly. All the players will want to banish those demons by putting on a display for the crowd who watched them be picked apart. 

Most will be expecting a Real Madrid win. They may not have been easy on the eye so far this season, and they seem unbalanced. The Barca result was the culmination of all these factors. So, Ancelotti’s side needs a big performance to get the fans fully back on the side and for themselves to remember who they are; they won the double last season. This type of result can go one of two ways, and Ancelotti doesn’t come across as the type of man who would allow it to have a negative long-term impact. 

If you were to go back 20 years or so, the Rossenri arriving at the Bernabeu would have the highest billing, but now AC Milan arrives as a side which is quite average. They currently sit seventh in Serie A and have already had two losses in the Champions League. 

AC Milan have lost combined with under five goals on five occasions in all competitions so far this season. Two of these have come in Europe with a loss to Leverkusen away from home, and they were dominated in the San Siro by Liverpool. A misfiring Leao hasn’t helped matters; he would have been the talisman in previous campaigns. However, one goal and three assists in 12 from all competitions isn’t inspiring. This is the type of game in which Real Madrid could probably shut AC Milan out in front of the goal. 

At the Bernabeu this season, barring the Barca loss, they have won the other seven, with four of them being under five goals. In recent games at home, they have been a bit more open at the back. So I think Real Madrid will look for defensive solidity to build off, then look to hurt Milan. 

• Real Madrid vs  AC Milan Prediction 1: Real Madrid win and under 5 goals (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Real Madrid vs AC Milan Prediction 2: Rudiger to trouble Maignan

A centre-back to have a shot or even score is not a regular angle I would opt to take, but in this instance, it was an exciting selection to take. The German centre-back has been imperious since his move when his Chelsea contract was up. Having already won everything you can at Madrid, the 31-year-old is showing no let up that he is a top level centre-back defensively. However, in recent weeks, his attacking output has picked up. 

When looking at his starts in all competitions so far, he’s started 3 times. In those 13 appearances, he managed to notch a shot in nine of those games for a total of 11 shots. Looking at his contributions from an attacking standpoint, the bulk of this has come in Europe so far this season. The big German centre half has scored twice in three games so far in the revamped Champions league group stage. Both of his goals have been in home games against German opposition, two bullet headers from corners just highlights how dangerous he is in the air. 

The importance of his ability in the air and particularly in situations such as corners or set pieces should not be overlooked when facing this AC Milan side. The reason being in European matches this season they have been porous in those situations. This version of Milan defensively is the antithesis of those great sides that won the European Cup. Against Liverpool they conceded practically the same goal from the same corner just 18 minutes apart. Van Dijk and Konate helped themselves to a goal each that day. 

It’s a common theme in this competition for their opponents centre backs to get shot off, Club Brugge defender Ordonez rattled the bar in Milan’s 3-1 win. All three of Leverkusen’s big centre-backs managed a shot, with Hincapie forcing a save from Maignan when the Ecuadorian won a header from a corner. It appears to be a reoccurring issue. The size Real Madrid possesses across their team corners will be a big chance to trouble Milan, and Rudiger, if he starts, will be there rising like a salmon at any opportunity to get his head on the ball. 

• Real Madrid vs AC Milan Prediction 2: Rudiger over 0.5 shots (TRACKED BET) & Rudiger to score (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.40 and 11.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7.5/10 & 2.5/10

Real Madrid vs AC Milan Prediction 3: Emerson Royal in for a royally tough evening

For anyone who’s watched Emerson Royal in action before, more often than not, he will provide some form of entertainment as long as he’s not on your side. Maybe I’m being harsh, but he’s not a consistent performer, to put it lightly. If he is recalled to the Rossoneri starting lineup, his direct opponent will be Vinicius Jr., Which has not been an easy task for any right back this season. 

It’s a betting approach that I opted for in my article in the El Clasico. Kounde got booked in that instance. There has been a consistent output from the opposition right back against the Brazilian star winger. These defenders have been averaging a high number of tackles and fouls while being booked. In both Champions League home games, the fullback has committed fouls, two for the Stuttgart right back and three for the two Dortmund players who played right. In La Liga, 40% of Vini’s direct opponents have been booked with an average of 1.8 fouls per fullback every game.

The injury to Rodyrgo will mean Vini will drift slightly more to central areas. He will still get wide as often as he can. The beautiful solo goal he scored against Dortmund when he waltzed past Emre Can at RIghtback to go and find the net. 

Emerson Royal isnt a regular for a caution but he has been booked twice in eight Serie A appearances. The former spurs man is averaging 1.4 fouls a game in the italian league but one thing going against Vinicius brings out is players fouls increase. Vinicius is the textbook answer for the worst type of opponent to face as a right back.  

The price being offered for a card where an angry Vinicius running will be running at him is enticing. When you also factor in that Vinicius believes he was wrongly snubbed for the Ballon d’or, he will be a man playing with wanting to send a message. 

• Real Madrid vs  AC Milan Prediction 3: Emerson Royal to be booked (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 4.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7.5/10

Real Madrid vs AC Milan Prediction odds via bet365 as at 11:00, November 4th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Real Madrid vs AC Milan Injuries, Team News and Possible Lineups:

Antonio Rudiger’s fitness was touch and go for a while, but all the tumblings coming out of Madrid’s camp are that he is fit enough to start for Los Blancos. The extended time without a game has been able to help him recover more. It’s almost Madrid’s strongest eleven, with only a few injuries to contend with. The players missing are Dani Carvajal, Courtois, Alaba and Rodrygo. The absence of Rodrygo means they will likely operate a similar setup as they did for the El Clasico with the front two of Mbappe and Vinicius Jr. 

Rafael Leao starting on the bench when fully fit would have been frowned upon a year ago, but against Monza in their 1-0 win at the weekend, that’s exactly what Fonseca opted to do. Since then, Fonseca has suggested the Portuguese winger will start for the Rosserari. Two players who are set to be brought back in for this game are Emerson Royal and the Englishman Loftus-Cheek. Also, Morata will likely start against his former side while Abraham is fit, but likely Fonseca will prefer the Spaniard to lead the line. 

Real Madrid possible starting lineup:
Lunin; Vazquez, Militao, Rudiger, Mendy; Valverde, Camavinga, Modric; Bellingham; Vinicius, Mbappe

AC Milan  possible starting lineup:
Maignan; Royal, Thiaw, Tomori, Hernandez; Loftus-Cheek, Fofana, Reijnders; Pulisic, Morata, Leao

Match OPTA Stats: Historically even record between two

• Real Madrid have won five of their seven home matches against Milan in the European  Cup/UEFA Champions League (D1 L1), beating them 2-0 in the most recent such match in  October 2010.
• Milan are winless in their last three UEFA Champions League games against Real Madrid (D2  L1) since they won 3-2 in October 2009 with goals from Andrea Pirlo and a brace from  Alexandre Pato.
• Real Madrid have won 17 of their last 18 European matches against Italian opposition, with  their only defeat in this sequence coming at home to Juventus in April 2018 in a UEFA  Champions League quarter-final match.
• This will be the fifth time Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti has faced his former side Milan  since coaching them (2001-2009), and the first time in European competition. The previous  four games all came while in charge of Napoli between 2018 and 2019, with Ancelotti only  managing to beat his former side on one occasion (D2 L1): 3-2 in August 2018 in a Serie A  home game.
• Real Madrid are unbeaten in their last 15 home games in the UEFA Champions League (W12  D3), despite being on their longest run without a clean sheet at home in the competition (six  games) since February 2013 (a run of eight).

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