AC Milan vs Lazio Prediction - Serie A Fixtures
Our Italian football expert Daniele Fisichella has prepared the preview of AC Milan vs Lazio ahead of a must win game for Sergio Coinceçao’s men.
Following Thursday’s defeat at Bologna the Rossoneri are eight points adrift from the fourth spot in Serie A and pressure is mounting on the Portuguese manager.
The visitors have already been beaten at San Siro this week, 2-0 by Inter Milan in Coppa Italia, and are aiming to keep peace with Juventus.
AC Milan vs Lazio Prediction: Rossoneri’s last chance to chase fourth spot
Italy, Serie A, Sunday, March 2nd, 19:45 (UK)
Despite taking the lead against Bologna, thanks to Rafael Leao sixth Serie A goal of the season, AC Milan suffered their second defeat in a row in the league.
Last week’s premature exit from the Champions League, at the hands of Feyenoord, has raised doubts about Coinceçao’s future and his ability to get the best out of this group of players.
With the spectre of a third consecutive defeat looming, the former Porto boss will be urging his side to make the most of home advantage, where they have won the last six, in all competitions, against the Biancocelesti.
However, Milan’s average record at San Siro this season suggests Sunday’s game is hard to predict.
While only suffering a single league defeat in front of their fans (0-2 against Napoli) their six draws (second only to Juventus, with seven) and only one clean sheet in the past five games highlight issues that Lazio will aim to exploit.
Despite their exit from the Coppa Italia and the recent 0-0 against relegation-bound Venezia, where they only created 0.79 xG, the visitors remain a dangerous and resilient team.
Marco Baroni’s men average 1.83 points per game in the past six games and are unbeaten in the past three fixtures on the road.
With the absence of top goalscorer Taty Castellanos, Lazio’s hopes will likely rest on the shoulders of their standout performers, Nuno Tavares and Gustav Isaksen.
With the third-highest tally of big chances created (nine) in Serie A, Tavares’s dynamism and creativity on the left flank present a significant threat. The Dane, on the other hand, is Lazio’s second top shooter, with 39 attempts so far, and has produced 1.27 key passes for 90minutes in the league.
Milan’s home scoring average of 2.03 goals per game and Lazio’s away mark of 1.4 per match suggest we might witness an expansive and entertaining duel.
BETSiE, our in-house in-house data projection mode, also believes this game won’t disappoint, as the goal total is projected to be 2.63, the third highest tally on matchday 27 in Italy.
Lazio’s last victory at San Siro came in 2019 and our in-house model projects these two sides will finish level on the table, with around 65 points.
The visitors have seven more points in the table compared to 2023/24, but against top teams in Italy they have only collected just nine out of 30 possible points this campaign.
Therefore the most logical choice is to back the Rossoneri, who are currently trailing Lazio by six points, in the Asian Handicap market, or pick Both Teams To Score – Yes at 1.70.
- AC Milan vs Lazio Prediction: Both Teams To Score – Yes (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.70
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 7/10 (TRACKED BET)
AC Milan vs Lazio Prediction odds via bet365 as at 10:40, February 28th, 2025. Odds may now differ.
The return for ‘captain’ America
Conceiçao is expected to choose Pulisic to play on the right wing, while Musah is competing with Fofana for a midfield spot.
Upfront, Joao Felix and Gimenez are likely to start, with Abraham again on the bench. Walker’s fitness is to be assessed, with Jimenez ready to continue to play as right back if needed.
In the Biancocelesti’s camp, coach Baroni needs to choose between Noslin and Pedro who will replace the injured Castellanos up front. Tchaouna who did not impress against Inter Milan on Tuesday will be among the substitutes.
Rovella returns in the playmaker role after serving a suspension. In defense, Romagnoli might not be available due to a muscular injury suffered in the Coppa Italia tie. Marusic and Tavares will play as full-backs, Provedel might return in goal.
AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Maignan; Jimenez, Thiaw, Pavlovic, Theo Hernandez; Fofana, Reijnders; Pulisic, Joao Felix, Leao; Gimenez.
Lazio possible starting lineup:
Provedel; Marusic, Gila, Gigot, Tavares; Guendouzi, Rovella; Isaksen, Dia, Zaccagni; Noslin.
Match OPTA Stats: Historically a tough trip for Lazio
- After the 2-2 draw in the first-leg match on August 31, Milan and Lazio could draw both Serie A seasonal fixtures for the first time since the 2013/14 season.
- Milan remained unbeaten in six of the last seven league encounters against Lazio (5 wins, 1 draw); the only victory for the Biancocelesti in this period was on January 24, 2023, when they won 4-0 at the Olimpico.
- The hosts have remained unbeaten in 33 of their last 34 home matches against Lazio in Serie A (22 wins, 11 draws); the only victory for Lazio away against the Rossoneri in this time was on November 3, 2019, with a 2-1 win thanks to goals from Immobile and Correa.
- Milan are the only team in this league season to have not conceded a single penalty goal; the last penalty goal conceded in Serie A was on May 5, 2024, against Genoa, scored by Mateo Retegui.
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