AC Milan vs. Fiorentina Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 5 April 2025 - bettingexpert
AC Milan and Fiorentina are set to clash at the iconic San Siro on 5 April 2025 at 19:45 for the 31st round of Serie A. This match is vital as both teams aim to secure higher spots in the league table, with Fiorentina currently sitting in 8th place with 51 points and Milan right behind them in 9th with 47 points.
Milan, under the stewardship of Sérgio Conceição, has had an inconsistent season, compounded by recent pressure following mixed results. Fiorentina, led by Raffaele Palladino, is in better form having won three out of their last five matches. The weather is expected to be mild, at 10°C with broken clouds, providing the perfect backdrop for a fierce contest.
Key players to watch include Christian Pulisic and Rafael Leão for Milan, while Moise Kean will be pivotal for Fiorentina. Despite Milan’s home advantage and strong fan support making them the bookmaker’s favorite with odds of 1.85 to win, Fiorentina’s stability and recent form suggest it could be a closely-fought battle. Milan to win or draw looks like a safe bet considering their home ground advantage.
With the teams showing similar statistics recently, and Milan slightly favored, fans can expect a thrilling match in front of an enthusiastic San Siro crowd.
AC Milan vs Fiorentina Prediction & Betting Tip
Recommended bet: AC Milan to win.
Considering AC Milan’s home advantage and their consistent scoring record at San Siro, they are the bookmaker’s favorite. Despite their inconsistent season, playing in front of a supportive home crowd often galvanizes Milan. Fiorentina’s recent form is impressive, but Milan’s resilience and improved performances at home make them a solid bet.
| AC Milan vs Fiorentina Prediction | |
|---|---|
| Betting tip | Odds |
| AC Milan to win | 1.85 |
- Home advantage: The fervent support at San Siro can significantly boost Milan’s performance and morale.
- Scoring streak: Milan has scored in 80% of their home matches this season, indicating a consistent offensive output.
- Recent confidence: Milan has won their last two home matches, showing they can bounce back and capitalize on their home turf.
AC Milan vs Fiorentina Odds
Let’s break down the betting odds for this exciting Serie A clash at the San Siro, set for April 5, 2025.
| AC Milan vs Fiorentina Betting Odds | |
|---|---|
| Bet | Odds |
| AC Milan | 1.85 |
| Draw | 3.67 |
| Fiorentina | 4.08 |
The odds favor AC Milan, likely due to their home advantage and supportive fans. Despite their inconsistent form this season, the Rossoneri have the slight edge. Meanwhile, a draw could be a safe bet given both teams’ balanced recent performances, and Fiorentina, though the underdog, cannot be counted out given their current form.
This should be a closely contested match, with both sides having plenty to play for.
AC Milan Team Analysis
AC Milan Recent Performance
| Home team | Away team | Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | Inter | 2025-04-02 | Coppa Italia | 1-1 (Draw) |
| SSC Napoli | AC Milan | 2025-03-30 | Serie A | 2-1 (Loss) |
| AC Milan | Como | 2025-03-15 | Serie A | 2-1 (Win) |
| Lecce | AC Milan | 2025-03-08 | Serie A | 2-3 (Win) |
| AC Milan | Lazio | 2025-03-02 | Serie A | 1-2 (Loss) |
Recent Form: DLWWL
AC Milan’s recent form has been quite a rollercoaster, featuring two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five matches. They have been scoring at a decent rate, with an average of 1.60 goals per game. However, keeping clean sheets has been a challenge, managing none in their last five outings.
Their last couple of matches have shown both resilience and frailties. A draw against league leaders Inter in the Coppa Italia and a crucial win over Como highlight their potential, but losses to Napoli and Lazio underscore ongoing defensive issues. The consistency needed to secure a higher league position is still a work in progress for Sérgio Conceição’s squad.
Watch out for their attacking duo of Christian Pulisic and Rafael Leão, who have been pivotal in their recent scoring tally. However, defensive lapses could be a cause for concern against a high-scoring Fiorentina side.
AC Milan Key Players
For AC Milan, key players such as Christian Pulisic and Rafael Leão stand out in the squad. Pulisic, the top scorer with 9 goals this season, will be crucial in breaking down Fiorentina’s defense. Rafael Leão’s pace and dribbling skills also make him a significant threat on the left wing.
Expected lineup for AC Milan:
- Goalkeeper: Mike Maignan
- Defenders: Kyle Walker, Matteo Gabbia, Malick Thiaw, Theo Hernandez
- Midfielders: Youssouf Fofana, Warren Bondo, Christian Pulisic, Tijjani Reijnders, Rafael Leão
- Attackers: Tammy Abraham
Watch for individual battles like Pulisic against Fiorentina’s left-back Luca Ranieri and Tammy Abraham going head-to-head with central defender Pablo Mari. These duels could determine the outcome of the game.
AC Milan Suspensions & Injuries
AC Milan is dealing with a few notable absences, which might impact their performance against Fiorentina.
| Player | Injury | Expected Return |
|---|---|---|
| Emerson Royal | Thigh injury | Back in training |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek | Appendicitis | Late April 2025 |
| Player | Suspension | Expected Return |
|---|---|---|
| Álex Jiménez | Yellow cards | 1 match left |
Emerson Royal’s absence on the right side of the defense could be a concern, but they might cope with Kyle Walker filling in. Ruben Loftus-Cheek’s midfield presence will also be missed.
Álex Jiménez’s suspension means alterations in the midfield setup are necessary. These absences and changes might test Sérgio Conceição’s squad depth and tactical flexibility.
AC Milan Tactics and Formation
AC Milan Tactical Breakdown:
- Formation: 4-2-3-1
- Key Forward: Tammy Abraham
- Midfield Trio: Youssouf Fofana, Warren Bondo, Tijjani Reijnders
- Defensive Line-Up: Kyle Walker, Matteo Gabbia, Malick Thiaw, Theo Hernandez
Milan’s formation has been consistent in recent matches, using a 4-2-3-1 setup. Sérgio Conceição relies on solid wing play, with Christian Pulisic and Rafael Leão expected to exploit the flanks. Tammy Abraham will be the focal point up front, aiming to add to his goal tally.
In midfield, the absence of Ruben Loftus-Cheek requires Warren Bondo to step up alongside Youssouf Fofana, adding dynamism. Kyle Walker’s presence helps mitigate the absence of Emerson Royal in defense.
Strategic Focus:
- Expect Milan to press aggressively and aim for quick transitions.
- Pulisic and Leão will be key in breaking down Fiorentina’s defense, focusing on pace and creativity.
- Defensive organization and quick recovery will be vital, given Milan’s average of conceding 1.1 goals per match.
Fiorentina Team Analysis
Fiorentina Recent Performance
Here’s how Fiorentina’s last five matches have panned out:
| Home team | Away team | Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | Atalanta | 2025-03-30 | Serie A | 1-0 (Win) |
| Fiorentina | Juventus | 2025-03-16 | Serie A | 3-0 (Win) |
| Fiorentina | Panathinaikos | 2025-03-13 | Conference League Final Stage | 3-1 (Win) |
| SSC Napoli | Fiorentina | 2025-03-09 | Serie A | 2-1 (Loss) |
| Panathinaikos | Fiorentina | 2025-03-06 | Conference League Final Stage | 3-2 (Loss) |
Recent Form: WLWWL
Fiorentina has been in solid form of late, winning three of their last five matches across all competitions. Notably, they secured convincing victories over Atalanta and Juventus in Serie A and prevailed against Panathinaikos in European competition.
They’ve managed two clean sheets in their last five games and boast an average of 2.00 goals scored per match, showcasing their attacking prowess. This rich vein of form and goal-scoring ability, particularly from their top scorer Moise Kean, makes them a formidable opponent.
Fiorentina Key Players
Fiorentina’s lineup boasts several standout performers who will be key in their clash against AC Milan.
Expected lineup for Fiorentina:
- Goalkeeper: David De Gea
- Defenders: Marin Pongračić, Pablo Mari Villar, Luca Ranieri
- Midfielders: Dodo, Nicolò Fagioli, Danilo Cataldi, Rolando Mandragora, Fabiano Parisi
- Attackers: Moise Kean, Albert Gudmundsson
Key Players:
- Moise Kean: The top scorer for Fiorentina with 16 goals. His performance up front will be crucial.
- David De Gea: An experienced goalkeeper capable of making crucial saves.
- Danilo Cataldi: Central to their midfield, orchestrating play and breaking up opposition attacks.
Individual battles to watch include Moise Kean against AC Milan’s defenders Kyle Walker and Theo Hernandez.
Fiorentina Suspensions & Injuries
| Player | Injury | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Edoardo Bove | Heart problems | Unknown |
| Andrea Colpani | Foot injury | Mid April 2025 |
| Robin Gosens | Knee injury | Doubtful |
Fiorentina are grappling with a few critical injuries that may impact their performance. With Edoardo Bove’s return uncertain due to heart problems, Fiorentina’s midfield might lack depth and versatility. Andrea Colpani, out with a foot injury, is not expected back until mid-April, further thinning the squad options for the crucial match against AC Milan. Robin Gosens is listed as doubtful due to a knee injury, leaving his participation in question.
These absences could hinder Fiorentina’s tactical flexibility and put extra pressure on the remaining players to step up in their stead.
Fiorentina Tactics and Formation
Fiorentina’s Tactical Breakdown:
- Formation: Expected to line up in a 3-5-2 formation.
- Key Forward: Moise Kean, the top scorer with 16 goals this season, will spearhead the attack alongside Albert Gudmundsson.
- Midfield Lineup: The midfield will see Dodo and Fabiano Parisi operating on the flanks, with Nicolò Fagioli, Danilo Cataldi, and Rolando Mandragora holding the central roles.
- Defensive Structure: The back three will consist of Marin Pongračić, Pablo Mari, and Luca Ranieri. David De Gea will be guarding the goal.
- Notable Strategy: Fiorentina has shown defensive resilience with two clean sheets in the last five games and has a penchant for conceding fewer goals, especially in the second half.
Their 3-5-2 formation relies heavily on wing-play and midfield dominance, ensuring both defensive cover and attacking support.
AC Milan vs Fiorentina Head-to-Head Statistics
Let’s dive into the recent encounters between AC Milan and Fiorentina to understand their history better:
| Home team | Away team | Date | Competition | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | AC Milan | 2024-10-06 | Serie A | 2-1 (Loss) |
| Fiorentina | AC Milan | 2024-03-30 | Serie A | 1-2 (Win) |
| AC Milan | Fiorentina | 2023-11-25 | Serie A | 1-0 (Win) |
| Fiorentina | AC Milan | 2023-03-04 | Serie A | 2-1 (Loss) |
| AC Milan | Fiorentina | 2022-11-13 | Serie A | 2-1 (Win) |
In their last five encounters, it’s been a rollercoaster with two wins for Fiorentina and three for Milan. Both teams have shown they can come out on top, making this upcoming match exciting and unpredictable.
Odds accurate as of 03.04.2025 19:46, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.
