Toluca vs. Mazatlan FC Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 28 September 2025

This Liga MX clash on 28 September promises to be a crucial encounter between Toluca and Mazatlan FC. Set to kick off at 02:00 at the iconic Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca (2nd with 22 points) will be looking to maintain their impressive form and close the gap on the league leaders.

Toluca comes into this match as the bookmaker’s favourite. With four wins in their last five matches and an average of 3 goals scored per game, their offensive prowess cannot be underestimated. Key figures like Paulinho, who is the top scorer with 6 goals, and Alexis Vega will be vital for the home side.

On the other hand, Mazatlan FC, currently sitting 15th in the standings with just 8 points, face an uphill battle. They haven’t managed a win in their last five outings, which includes three draws and two losses. Coach Robert Siboldi will need to rally his players, particularly Fabio Gomes and Anderson Duarte, to make an impact.

With not much separating the teams in previous encounters, this match is expected to produce goals and excitement. As we recommend, a home win for Toluca seems the safest bet given their current form and home advantage.

Don’t miss this fascinating encounter on 28 September!

Toluca vs Mazatlan FC Prediction & Betting Tip

1. Current Form and Performance: Toluca is in excellent form with 4 wins in their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 3 goals per game. Mazatlan FC, on the other hand, has failed to secure a win in their last 5 outings.
2. League Standing: Toluca sits comfortably in 2nd place with 22 points, showcasing a strong season so far. Mazatlan FC struggles down in 15th place with just 8 points.
3. Head-to-Head Advantage: Historically, Toluca has had the upper hand, winning 3 of the last 5 encounters, including commanding victories at home.

Given these factors and Toluca’s home advantage, backing a home win is the safest and most logical choice in this matchup.

Toluca vs Mazatlan FC Odds

As we approach the pivotal Liga MX match between Toluca and Mazatlan FC, bookmakers have unsurprisingly tilted the odds in favour of the home team. Given Toluca’s remarkable form this season, it’s no surprise they’re the heavy favourites.

With Toluca in scintillating form, winning four of their last five matches and sitting comfortably in 2nd place with 22 points, the odds reflect their dominance. Opposingly, Mazatlan FC’s struggles are evident in their 15th standing and no wins in their last five outings.

Backing Toluca to win seems logical with their statistical edge and home advantage.

Toluca Team Analysis

Toluca Recent Performance

Toluca has been in red-hot form, bagging 4 wins out of their last 5 matches. Their recent results are as follows:

• Toluca 6 – 2 Monterrey (2025-09-25)
• CD Guadalajara 0 – 3 Toluca (2025-09-21)
• Toluca 3 – 1 Puebla (2025-09-14)
• Atletico de San Luis 1 – 3 Toluca (2025-08-30)
• Cruz Azul 1 – 0 Toluca (2025-08-24)

During this period, Toluca has showcased their offensive firepower, averaging 3 goals per game. Defensively, they have kept one clean sheet, demonstrating a balanced approach. Their solitary loss came against Cruz Azul, highlighting their dominant run.

Given their current position in 2nd place with 22 points, Toluca looks poised to maintain their momentum as they continue their push for the title.

Toluca Key Players

Toluca’s squad is brimming with talent, led by top scorer Paulinho, who has netted 6 goals this season. His ability to find the back of the net will be crucial in breaking down Mazatlan FC’s defence. Alexis Vega, another key player, has been influential in creating scoring opportunities and will likely feature prominently.

The expected lineup for Toluca:

• Goalkeeper: Hugo Gonzalez
• Defenders: Santiago Simon, Antonio Briseno, Federico Pereira, Mauricio André Isais
• Midfielders: Marcel Ruiz, Franco Romero, Jesus Angulo, Nicolas Castro, Ernesto Alexis Vega
• Forward: Paulinho

Key battles on the pitch will see Paulinho up against Mazatlan’s Lucas Merolla, with the former looking to outpace and outsmart the latter. Additionally, Toluca’s midfield duo, Marcel Ruiz and Franco Romero, will aim to control the game tempo against Mazatlan’s central midfielders.

Toluca Suspensions & Injuries

Toluca heads into the match with a couple of concerns on the injury front. Jesus Gallardo is suspended due to accumulated yellow cards, which presents a notable gap in their defence. His absence could potentially create vulnerabilities, particularly given Toluca’s tendency to concede goals in the 31-45 minute interval.

Injuries to Luan (knock injury, potential return mid-October 2025) and Helinho (thigh injury, doubtful) further compound their issues. Luan’s absence affects the midfield depth, while Helinho’s potential unavailability could reduce creative options on the flanks.

Despite these setbacks, Toluca’s formidable recent form and squad depth should help them manage these absences. Coach Shayr Mohamed will look to other squad members to step up and fill these roles adequately.

Toluca Tactics and Formation

Toluca Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: Paulinho
• Midfield Duo: Marcel Ruiz, Franco Romero
• Defensive Setup: One clean sheet in the last five games.
• Notable Strategy: Strong attack, evidenced by their average of 3 goals per game in the last five matches.

Under the guidance of coach Shayr Mohamed, Toluca operates predominantly in a 4-2-3-1 formation, which allows for a balanced approach between defence and attack. Paulinho, their top scorer with 6 goals, leads the line up front, supported by creative midfielders like Nicolas Castro and Jesus Angulo.

The duo of Marcel Ruiz and Franco Romero in the defensive midfield roles provides a solid backbone, facilitating both defensive stability and offensive transitions. Despite some defensive lapses, particularly around the 31-45 minute interval, their overall strategy hinges on aggressive forward play, aiming to capitalise on their scoring strength during key moments.

Mazatlan FC Team Analysis

Mazatlan FC Recent Performance

Mazatlan FC has been grappling with form issues, as evidenced by their last five outings:

• Leon 2 – 2 Mazatlan FC (2025-09-24)
• Mazatlan FC 1 – 1 Atlas (2025-09-20)
• Mazatlan FC 1 – 4 Club Universidad Nacional (2025-09-13)
• FC Juarez 1 – 0 Mazatlan FC (2025-08-30)
• Mazatlan FC 2 – 2 Tigres (2025-08-24)

Their recent form reads DLLDD, underlining their struggles. Mazatlan FC has failed to secure a victory in their last five matches, which includes three draws and two losses. They have scored an average of 1.20 goals per game but have not managed to keep a clean sheet during this period, highlighting their defensive frailties.

Overall, this inconsistent performance has left them languishing in 15th place with just 8 points. If they aim to climb up the standings, Coach Robert Siboldi needs to address both offensive and defensive aspects of their game promptly.

Mazatlan FC Key Players

Mazatlan FC will rely heavily on key players like top scorer Anderson Duarte, who has netted 2 goals this season. Alongside him, midfielder Nicolas Benedetti will be crucial in creating opportunities and breaking down Toluca’s defences.

The expected lineup for Mazatlan FC:

• Goalkeeper: Ricardo Daniel Gutiérrez
• Defenders: Bryan Colula, Facundo Almada, Lucas Merolla, Mauro Zaleta
• Midfielders: Edgar Yoel Bárcenas, José Joaquín Esquivel, Jordan Sierra, Omar Moreno, Nicolas Benedetti
• Forward: Anderson Duarte

Key battles to watch out for include Anderson Duarte versus Toluca’s central defenders Antonio Briseno and Federico Pereira. Additionally, Nicolas Benedetti’s midfield duel against Toluca’s Marcel Ruiz and Franco Romero will be critical in determining the tempo of the match and possession play. These individual contests will likely have significant impacts on the game’s outcome.

Mazatlan FC Suspensions & Injuries

Mazatlan FC faces injury worries that could impact their performance against Toluca. Alberto Herrera is dealing with a knee injury and is listed as doubtful for the match, putting a dent in their defensive lineup. Additionally, Jefferson Intriago’s hamstring injury keeps his availability in question, further weakening their midfield options.

These injuries compound Mazatlan’s challenges, especially since they haven’t managed a clean sheet in their last five games. Coach Robert Siboldi will need to make strategic adjustments to compensate for these absences.

Despite their ongoing struggles, Mazatlan will need to rely heavily on their current squad depth to compete effectively against Toluca.

Mazatlan FC Tactics and Formation

Mazatlan FC Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-4-1-1
• Key Forward: Anderson Duarte
• Midfield Quartet: Edgar Yoel Bárcenas, José Joaquín Esquivel, Jordan Sierra, Omar Moreno
• Defensive Challenges: No clean sheets in the last five games
• Notable Strategy: Scoring most goals in the 76-90 and 61-75-minute intervals

Operating in a 4-4-1-1 formation under the guidance of coach Robert Siboldi, Mazatlan FC aims to balance defence and attack. Anderson Duarte is set to lead the line, tasked with breaking through Toluca’s defence. The midfield, anchored by Edgar Yoel Bárcenas and José Joaquín Esquivel, will focus on creating opportunities and controlling the pace of the game.

Despite their formation, Mazatlan FC has struggled defensively, not securing a clean sheet in their recent matches. Their strategy often involves pressing later in the game, aiming to capitalise on opportunities in the final stretches, particularly in the 76-90 and 61-75-minute intervals. To turn their fortunes around, these tactical nuances will need to work seamlessly against Toluca’s strong form.

Toluca vs Mazatlan FC Head-to-Head Statistics

In their last five encounters, Toluca and Mazatlan FC have showcased a mix of results. Here’s a breakdown of their past meetings:

• Mazatlan FC 2 – 1 Toluca (2025-01-25, Liga MX Clausura)
• Toluca 3 – 0 Mazatlan FC (2024-07-18, Liga MX Apertura)
• Toluca 4 – 1 Mazatlan FC (2024-01-20, Liga MX Clausura)
• Mazatlan FC 1 – 0 Toluca (2023-11-11, Liga MX Apertura)
• Toluca 4 – 1 Mazatlan FC (2023-03-12, Liga MX Clausura)

Toluca has clearly been the dominant force in these matchups, winning three of the last five games, including impressive home victories with scores of 3-0 and 4-1. Mazatlan FC managed two victories, both at home, but struggled to contain Toluca’s offensive firepower away.

Given Toluca’s home advantage and historical success, their strong form heading into this matchup makes them the clear favourites to secure another win.

Odds accurate as of 26/09/2025 02:03 and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.