Cavaliers vs Hawks Prediction - NBA Picks
The Cleveland Cavaliers host the Atlanta Hawks on 31st January in what promises to be a crucial Eastern Conference showdown. The game will be broadcast on TNT and streamed on MAX, starting at 7:00 PM EST. The Cavaliers, currently leading the conference with a 36-9 record, are on a three-game losing streak, while the Hawks, sitting at 22-24 and ninth in the conference, are on a five-game skid. According to the latest odds, Cleveland is a 9.5-point favourite with the total points line set at 236.5.
Cleveland Cavaliers Analysis
The Cavaliers have been a dominant force this season, boasting an impressive 36-9 record. However, their recent three-game losing streak, including a surprising loss to the Detroit Pistons, has raised some concerns. Despite these hiccups, Cleveland has maintained a high level of performance, thanks to their key players.
Key Players and Performance Metrics
- Darius Garland (PG): Garland is averaging 21.71 points and 6.80 assists per game with an impressive shooting split of 50% FG, 43% 3P, and 88% FT. His scoring efficiency, represented by a true shooting percentage (TS%) of 63%, makes him a crucial offensive weapon.
- Donovan Mitchell (SG): Mitchell leads the team with 23.93 points per game and provides solid defence with 1.44 steals per game. His shooting splits (45% FG, 40% 3P, 83% FT) and a TS% of 58% underline his scoring prowess.
- Jarrett Allen (C): Allen’s 13.83 points per game come with a remarkable 70% FG, supplemented by 9.96 rebounds per game. His defensive contributions, including 0.96 steals and 0.94 blocks per game, make him a key player in the paint.
Recent Trends and Insights
Cleveland’s offensive efficiency is notable, averaging 121.87 points per game with an Offensive Rating of 122.96. Their defensive metrics are solid, with a Defensive Rating of 112.96. The Cavaliers excel in controlling possessions, averaging fewer turnovers per game (12.23) compared to the Hawks (15.45).
In their last matchup against the Hawks on 29th November 2024, the Cavaliers faced a 117-101 loss. However, Cleveland’s superior overall metrics suggest they have the upper hand in this upcoming game.
Atlanta Hawks Analysis
The Hawks have struggled with consistency this season, currently holding a 22-24 record. They are on a five-game losing streak, with key players like Trae Young and Jalen Johnson dealing with injuries, significantly impacting their performance.
Key Players and Performance Metrics
- Trae Young (PG): Young is the team’s primary playmaker, averaging 22.72 points and 11.42 assists per game. However, his shooting efficiency is a concern, with a 40% FG and 34% 3P, and his high turnover rate (4.67 TOPG) poses a risk.
- Dyson Daniels (SG): Daniels averages 13.50 points and 3.67 assists per game, shooting 47% from the field. His defensive contributions include 0.76 steals and 0.50 blocks per game.
- Clint Capela (C): Capela leads the team in rebounding (9.00 RPG) and blocks (1.00 BPG), providing a better defensive presence. However, his offensive contributions are limited, with 9.42 points per game and a 54% FT.
Recent Trends and Insights
The Hawks average 115.34 points per game with an Offensive Rating of 111.73, falling short compared to the Cavaliers. Defensively, they have a rating of 114.43, indicating they struggle to limit opponents’ scoring. Their turnovers and inconsistent free-throw shooting could be detrimental in a close game.
Historically, the Hawks have had mixed results against the Cavaliers, with their last victory on 29th November 2024. However, with their current form and injury issues, they face an uphill battle.
Historical Matchup Insights
The Cavaliers and Hawks have faced each other multiple times this season, with the Hawks winning their most recent encounter on 29th November 2024, 117-101. Previous matchups have been high-scoring affairs, often exceeding the total points line set by oddsmakers.
Key Historical Trends
- Head-to-Head: The Hawks have won three of their last five meetings against the Cavaliers, showing they can compete despite their current form.
- Scoring Trends: Games between these two teams have typically been high-scoring, with total points often surpassing 230.
Betting Pick & Prediction
Given the statistical advantages and current form, the Cavaliers are poised to break their losing streak against the struggling Hawks. Cleveland’s superior offensive efficiency, better defensive metrics, and control over possessions give them a clear edge in this matchup.
Key Betting Insights
- Spread: The Cavaliers are favoured by 9.5 points. Given their overall efficiency and the Hawks’ struggles, betting on Cleveland to cover the spread (-9.5) at -117 is a better play.
- Total Points: With the total set at 236.5, both teams’ recent scoring trends suggest this line could be surpassed. Betting on the Over 236.5 at -108 is another viable option.
- Moneyline: Cleveland’s moneyline at -379 offers limited value, but it underscores their favouritism in this matchup.
Final Recommendation
Pick: Cavaliers -9.5 (-117)
Cleveland’s balanced and efficient playstyle, combined with the Hawks’ recent struggles and injury woes, makes them the clear favourite. Expect the Cavaliers to control the tempo and capitalise on their scoring opportunities, securing a comfortable win and covering the spread. Betting on the Over 236.5 is also worth considering, given the high-scoring nature of their previous encounters.
