Eagles vs Chiefs Predictions - Super Bowl Picks
The showdown in the Super Bowl will see the Kansas City Chiefs battling it out once again with the Philadelphia Eagles at 6:30 p.m. ET this Sunday.
The Chiefs are on a quest to set a record as the first team to clinch three consecutive championships. Meanwhile, the Eagles are eager to avenge their loss from Super Bowl LVII against the Chiefs two years ago. This article will preview the spread and total markets before delving into a variety of player and game props.
When the Chiefs Possess the Ball
Patrick Mahomes continues to redefine excellence and is inching closer to challenging Tom Brady’s status as the greatest quarterback of all time. Although this season hasn’t fully matched his previous exploits, Mahomes has delivered his top three performances by dropback EPA in his last four games, peaking just when his team needs him the most. In the AFC Championship, he achieved season highs in dropback EPA integrations, success rate (64.7%), and dropback EPA (+21.5).
Throughout the regular season, the Chiefs kept their offensive strategy relatively conservative. However, Andy Reid has begun to unveil more of the playbook in the playoffs. With a two-week window to strategize for the Super Bowl, Reid is expected to have an exceptional game plan ready. This will be crucial against a formidable Eagles defense.
Pass protection has been a persistent problem for the Chiefs, compelling the relocation of Joe Thuney to left tackle. This adjustment has exposed vulnerabilities in the interior offensive line — a significant concern when facing defenders such as Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, and Milton Williams. The Chiefs are likely to struggle with their ground game against an Eagles defensive front that limits opponents to 1.47 yards before contact per attempt, the fifth lowest in the league.
Ultimately, the outcome of this game might hinge on Mahomes stepping up against the league’s top defense. Given that he boasts the highest playoff EPA/play of any quarterback this century, if the Chiefs are trailing by a single possession in the final moments, betting against him delivering yet another clutch performance seems unwise.
When the Eagles Have the Ball
In the previous season, the Eagles’ defense crumbled as they lost six of their last seven games, emphasizing a significant decline. Offensive struggles also contributed to their woes. Kellen Moore’s arrival as the new offensive coordinator has been highly beneficial. Additionally, Saquon Barkley has excelled in the best offensive setting of his career, amassing 2,447 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns.
Throughout much of the regular season, the Chiefs exhibited a strong run defense, but recent weeks have seen a decline. Since Week 11, Kansas City has ranked just 20th in run defense EPA and 24th in success rate. Observing Steve Spagnuolo’s strategy to manage Barkley will be intriguing, and the Chiefs might need to stack the box to contain him. While Barkley is still adept at breaking through loaded boxes, he averages 3.93 YPC against 8+ man fronts.
Beyond limiting Barkley, Spagnuolo’s primary defensive focus must be to pressure Jalen Hurts in clear passing situations. The Chiefs, who are fourth this season in blitz rate at 31.6%, are expected to unleash some creative blitzes during crucial moments of the game. Hurts has found it challenging when under duress, standing 35th out of 43 qualifying quarterbacks with 4.9 yards per attempt and 41st in PFF passing grade at 32.9.
If the Chiefs need to stack the box to halt Barkley, it could create opportunities for A.J. Brown. The Chiefs are second in two-high safety rate at 61.1%, but the Eagles face the second-highest rate of single-high coverages. Brown excels against single-high defenses, averaging 3.94 Y/RR under that setup, ranking second among eligible receivers.
When It Comes Down to It
Overall, the Eagles boast the superior roster in this matchup. There’s a clear pathway for the Eagles to secure an early lead against a faltering Chiefs’ run defense by utilizing Barkley, creating explosive plays both on the ground and through the air, and depending on a robust defense to counter an offense that lacks big-play potential.
Nevertheless, if the game remains tight heading into the later stages, it’s hard to bet against the Chiefs, given their NFL record of 17 consecutive victories in one-score games. Mahomes, Reid, and Spagnuolo have orchestrated stunning postseason comebacks time and again.
Verdict: Bet Eagles Half Time / Chiefs Full Game (+600, DraftKings)
Eagles vs. Chiefs Over/Under Prediction
The Chiefs and Eagles are among the elite NFL teams when it comes to executing deliberate offensive strategies. The Eagles dominate the league in time of possession, utilizing a diverse rushing strategy and consistently converting on fourth down, making it exceptionally difficult to get them off the field.
I slightly favor the under. Spagnuolo is expected to have a solid strategy for containing Hurts and Barkley, while Mahomes will arguably face his biggest challenge of the season against the formidable Eagles defense.
Verdict: Favor Under 48.5 Points, Monitor Second-Half Under
Dallas Goedert 50+ Receiving Yards (-120, FanDuel)
Dallas Goedert has been a revelation for the Eagles since his return from injury late in the season. He has amassed 50 or more receiving yards in three of the last four contests. The Chiefs have consistently faced difficulties in defending against tight ends this season, surrendering an average of 68.5 yards per game – the second-highest figure in the NFL.
JuJu Smith-Schuster Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-110, bet365)
It has been a relatively subdued season for JuJu Smith-Schuster, but he delivered a noteworthy performance against the Bills, securing two receptions for a total of 60 yards. The Chiefs appear to be gradually reducing DeAndre Hopkins’ role, providing Smith-Schuster with more opportunities.
Chamarri Conner Over 4.5 Tackles + Assists (-105, BetMGM)
One of the Kansas City Chiefs’ underappreciated defensive assets has been Chamarri Conner. Notably, Conner has excelled at stopping the run, topping all defensive backs in Pro Football Focus (PFF)’s run stop percentage metric. He has achieved 4.5 tackles + assists in seven out of ten games in which he played at least 70% of the snaps, maintaining an average of 6.1 tackles + assists during those appearances.
Chris Jones To Record a Sack (+136, FanDuel)
Jalen Hurts leads the NFL with an average of 3.21 seconds to throw, resulting in avoidable sacks. One of the NFL’s top pass-rushers, Chris Jones, is set to exploit this. PFF data places him second in the league for pressures at 85 and third for quarterback hits at 18.
Jalen Carter To Record a Sack (+131, DraftKings)
Jalen Carter has been a dominant force on the Eagles’ defensive line. With the Chiefs struggling in pass protection, Carter is in a prime position to add to his sack total in this crucial game.
