Early Bird Tips for Serie A: Look for value in the goals market

In this week’s Early Bird Tips for Serie A, I’ve selected the fascinating clash between the champions, Napoli, and last year’s runners-up, Lazio, who, back in March, got an impressive 1-0 win at the Maradona.

So far, Napoli have strolled past opponents, whereas Lazio are still to collect a point, but they have not been as bad as the standings suggest.

Atalanta and Monza are usually a safe bet when it comes to the goals market, whereas Juventus, who suffered a setback at the weekend, need a good performance in Tuscany, where they were thumped 4-1 last season.

• Early Bird Tips for Atalanta vs Monza: Both Teams to Score – Yes
• Early Bird Tips for Napoli vs Lazio: Both Teams to Score – Yes
• Early Bird Tips for Empoli vs Juventus: Over 2.5 Goals

Acca odds: 5.82

Odds via bet365 as at 5pm Monday, August 28th. Odds may now differ.

Atalanta vs Monza: Attack-minded sides should not disappoint

Italy, Serie A, Saturday, September, 2nd, 7:45pm (UK)

You never know what you’ll get with Atalanta these days: dominant on their debut against Sassuolo, flat and distracted (especially in the first half) at Frosinone.

It was a strange start of the season for the Orobici, who played both games away from home and delivered contrasting performances: last Saturday, they were slow off the mark and, initially, struggled to contain Frosinone’s high rhythm. Yet they created plenty of chances (18 shots, two more than the previous weekend) but lacked composure in key moments.

With the introduction of Charles De Ketelaere in the second half, they added some very much-needed creativity: will Gianpiero Gasperini start the young Belgian this time?

Both Atalanta and Monza are currently in Serie A’s top four for shots taken, and the Brianzoli have never been involved in a 0-0 match in their short top-flight history.

Raffaele Palladino tweaked his formation on Saturday against Empoli, moving Patrick Ciurria on the left-hand side and giving Andrea Colpani, the author of a brace, more freedom to go forward.

Last year, this fixture finished 5-2, and Atalanta have conceded in the last seven home games, keeping only four clean sheets during the previous campaign. Thirteen out of 19 games played at the Stadio Azzurri D’Italia in 2022/2023 have seen both teams on the scoresheet.

• Selection: Both Teams to Score – Yes
• Best Odds: 1.75
• Bookmaker: bet365

Napoli vs Lazio: Can Sarri repeat last year’s masterstroke?

Italy, Serie A, Saturday, September, 2nd, 7:45pm (UK)

Let’s put it straight: Lazio have been disappointing so far. On paper, they had two easy fixtures (Lecce away and newly-promoted Genoa at the Olimpico), and everyone would have expected Sarri’s men to show more quality in front of goal and a better defensive organisation.

Where’s the team that kept 21 clean sheets last season and managed to stifle Napoli in March with a tactically perfect display that led to a 1-0 win at the Maradona?

Losing Sergej Milinković-Savić has been a big blow, as the Serbian, thanks to his physical and technical attributes, often changed games, and, at the moment, the new signings (Daichi Kamada above all) have not left their mark.

But Lazio have also been unlucky: this weekend, they should have had a penalty in the first half, and their xG are 2.16 higher than the mere goal they netted so far. They hit the bar twice in key moments of each game, proper sliding doors moments.

Napoli have picked up from where they left off as they dispatched Frosinone and ten-men Sassuolo.

Rudi Garcia has not changed the way the team played under Spalletti, but Napoli looks to play slightly more directly, which has contributed to creating more chances: they’re top for shots so far (44).

But I’m curious to see how Napoli’s midfield and backline fare against a side that can keep moving the ball well.

• Selection: Both teams to Score – Yes
• Best Odds: 1.85
• Bookmaker: bet365

Empoli vs Juventus: one step forward, two back for Juve

Italy, Serie A, Sunday, September, 3rd, 7:45pm (UK)

In their 1-1 draw against Bologna last Sunday, Juventus were second-best for large spells.

Had the visitors been awarded a stonewall penalty in the second half when the score was still 1-0 in their favour, we’d be talking about a deserved Juve defeat.

Instead, Massimiliano Allegri’s side managed to save a point thanks to Dusan Vlahovic, but their lack of quality in midfield was exposed once again.

Against a weak Udinese side, Juventus scored early and shrugged off the pressure, but last weekend, they were unable to replicate the good performance in front of their crowd.

Despite his second goal in two games, Vlahovic did not seem to form a good partnership with Federico Chiesa this time, and the two wingbacks, Andrea Cambiaso and Timothy Weah, struggled to provide good crosses.

Empoli have not scored yet in Serie A, but they’ve played on the front foot against Verona and Monza, collecting 28 shots so far (five more than Juventus) and hitting the bar twice.

They’re a young side and have goalscorers in their ranks (like Francesco Caputo and Emmanuel Gyasi) but will often concede at least one. Last season, when Guglielmo Vicario defended their goal, they kept only seven clean sheets and finished the season with a negative (-1) goal difference at the Castellani.

Juventus have won their last ten away games to nil, the majority of them against sides who ended last season in the bottom half of the table.

But Empoli have scored in two of the last three matches against the Bianconeri; all these games have been over 2.5 goals, with 14 goals scored in total.

• Selection: Over 2.5 Goals
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365

RESPONSIBLE GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a responsible approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Responsible Gambling hub.