NFL Predictions and Expert Picks
Even if the NFL season is very short, there are plenty of matches played where you can make your predictions. A great thing about the league is that there’s a lot of data being collected and shared which you can use to your advantage. Combining it with our experts’ opinion, you will have enough information to make the best betting decision.
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Saturday, 11th January 2025
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NFL Wild Card Round 2025
The NFL playoffs kick off with the Wild Card Round, where 12 teams battle for a chance to advance toward the Super Bowl. This year’s matchups promise intensity, featuring some of the league’s most dynamic players and fascinating rivalries.
On Saturday, the Houston Texans face the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers, powered by their high-octane offence, are slight favourites, but the Texans’ defence could disrupt their rhythm. Later that evening, AFC North rivals Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers collide. Expect a physical showdown as these two storied franchises renew their rivalry under the playoff lights.
Sunday starts with the Buffalo Bills hosting the Denver Broncos. The Bills, led by their elite quarterback, will look to leverage their home advantage against Denver’s resurgent team. Later, the Philadelphia Eagles meet the Green Bay Packers in a marquee NFC matchup, pitting two of the league’s best offences against each other.
In the Sunday night cap, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers face the Washington Commanders. Tampa Bay’s veteran leadership squares off against a gritty Washington squad hungry for an upset.
The round wraps up on Monday with the Los Angeles Rams travelling to face the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings, boasting an electrifying offence, will try to overcome the Rams’ formidable defence in what could be a game for the ages.
NFL Predictions Today
During the winter period, it will be hard for the offensive line for every team which will result in more runs instead of passes. A great tip is to find the top teams with a great passing game and focus on them. Or, your NFL predictions can focus on teams like Philadelphia, the Eagle’s defensive line is very strong which helped them reach the number one spot in their group. They will definitely play even better during rain and snowy weather.
NFL Stats
If you’re thinking of betting on the NFL, a good start is to consider a large sample size of betting stats. This can help you identify historical biases present in the market and advantages for teams in certain situations. Let’s first look at straight-up win-loss betting stats.
Straight Up Win-Loss NFL Stats
Below we can see win and loss percentages for teams in certain situations. For example, we can see that home teams win just over 57% of football games. Historically home-field advantage has been worth around 3 points, but this has been challenged recently, with many now believing the advantage to be around 2 points. We can also see an advantage for teams coming off a bye week. Teams in such situations have won just over 55% of their games since 2003.
Situation | WIN PCT | LOSS PCT |
---|---|---|
Home Teams | 57.4% | 42.6% |
Away Teams | 42.6% | 57.4% |
Favourites | 66.6% | 33.4% |
Underdogs | 33.4% | 66.6% |
Home Favourites | 67.7% | 32.3% |
Home Underdogs | 35.9% | 64.1% |
Away Favourites | 64.1% | 35.9% |
Away Underdogs | 32.3% | 67.7% |
After A Bye Week | 55.1% | 44.9% |
After A Win | 54.0% | 46.0% |
After A Loss | 45.8% | 54.2% |
Betting Picks Against The Spread (ATS) NFL Stats
When we consider picks against the spread, we can identify a few market biases to consider when betting on NFL games. Firstly, away teams have won just over 51% of bets against the spread since 2003, likewise, underdogs have won almost 51%.
As a result, we can see that underdogs playing away games have won against the spread almost 52% of the time. While 52% is not a strike rate to profit given standard bookmaker odds of 1.90 for NFL spread betting, it is certainly a bias to keep in mind. Further, we can see that teams coming off a bye have covered the spread in just over 52% of games.
Situation | ATS WIN PCT | ATS LOSS PCT |
---|---|---|
Home Teams | 48.8% | 51.2% |
Away Teams | 51.2% | 48.8% |
Favourites | 49.2% | 50.8% |
Underdogs | 50.8% | 49.2% |
Home Favourites | 48.4% | 51.6% |
Home Underdogs | 49.4% | 50.6% |
Away Favourites | 50.6% | 49.4% |
Away Underdogs | 51.6% | 48.4% |
After A Bye Week | 52.1% | 47.9% |
After A Win | 49.6% | 50.4% |
After A Loss | 50.5% | 49.5% |
Over Under NFL Stats
When we look at points totals, we can see a distinct bias in games featuring teams from the same division, with those games finishing under the points total line just over 53% of the time since 2003. This can be explained by the fact that divisional teams play each other twice each season and are therefore defensively better prepared than when playing teams out of division.
In non-division games and non-conference games, where teams play each other rarely, these games have finished with over the points total line, almost 52% of the team—another bias to keep in mind when betting on NFL points totals.
Situation | OVER WIN PCT | UNDER WIN PCT |
---|---|---|
Conference Games | 49.0% | 51.0% |
Division Games | 46.9% | 53.1% |
Playoff Games | 49.2% | 50.8% |
Non-Conference Games | 51.7% | 48.3% |
Non-Division Games | 51.2% | 48.8% |
Regular Season Games | 49.7% | 50.3% |
Past Super Bowl Winners and Betting Odds Overview
Here’s a table summarizing recent Super Bowl winners, their opponents, and the betting odds for the winners before the game. These odds reflect the balance of power as perceived by oddsmakers and bettors prior to kickoff.
Year | Winner | Opponent | Score | Pre-Game Odds |
---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | Kansas City Chiefs | San Francisco 49ers | 25-22 | +110 |
2023 | Kansas City Chiefs | Philadelphia Eagles | 38–35 | +105 |
2022 | Los Angeles Rams | Cincinnati Bengals | 23–20 | -200 |
2021 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Kansas City Chiefs | 31–9 | +140 |
2020 | Kansas City Chiefs | San Francisco 49ers | 31–20 | -120 |
2019 | New England Patriots | Los Angeles Rams | 13–3 | -140 |
Key Insights
- Underdog Victories: While favourites often win, notable underdog victories, such as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2021, have shocked fans and bettors alike. The Buccaneers’ +140 odds meant significant payouts for those betting on their success.
- Dominant Teams: Teams like the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots have consistently appeared in Super Bowl games, reflecting their dominance in recent NFL history.
Super Bowl 2025
As the NFL season enters its most thrilling phase, the Super Bowl draws nearer. Explore bet365’s Super Bowl odds below.
The displayed odds are provided by bet365. Please note that odds are subject to change. Always check that the odds are correct before placing your bets at the operator’s website.
Expert NFL Predictions and Betting Tips
Leading up to a matchday, our best tipsters will carefully securitise every possible factor regarding those upcoming matchups. Only after careful analysis of every factor do they come up with their expert NFL picks today.
Our NFL experts have a lot of knowledge about the sport and they follow trends to make informed decisions. They carefully choose the best bets before posting because their success isn’t only in providing a bet, instead, they are trying to win the competition as well.
A quick check of any of our top betting tipsters’ profiles will quickly reveal the total Profit and Yield that each tipster has made to date.
Want to learn more about American Football? Visit the bettingexpert Academy and read our American Football Betting Guide.
Bookmakers For Betting On NFL
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All of the top online bookmakers cover NFL betting in depth and provide an excellent range of betting markets, plus consistently strong NFL betting odds.
When choosing an online bookmaker, stick to the well-established big name bookies and be sure that your bookmaker provides these four key elements:
- Consistently Competitive Odds
- A Wide Range Of Betting Markets
- All Major Competitions Covered
- Extensive In-Play Betting Markets
Try and find the online bookmaker that provides the best overall coverage of the NFL. Your bookmaker should provide great odds and a wide range of betting markets. Plenty of in-play betting markets are essential, and if possible, live streaming of NFL games.
To find the ideal bookmaker for your picks, be sure to read our bookmaker reviews.
More American Football Leagues:
Monday, 6th January 2025
- Detroit Lions31Minnesota Vikings9
Sunday, 5th January 2025
- Arizona Cardinals47San Francisco 49ers24
- Denver Broncos38Kansas City Chiefs0
- Los Angeles Rams25Seattle Seahawks30
- Las Vegas Raiders20Los Angeles Chargers34
- New York Jets32Miami Dolphins20
- Indianapolis Colts26Jacksonville Jaguars23
- Dallas Cowboys19Washington Commanders23
- Philadelphia Eagles20New York Giants13
- Green Bay Packers22Chicago Bears24