How To Build A Predictive Betting Model

Learn Your Probability Theory

Yeah we know, it sounds like homework. Bor-ing. But you’re not doing yourself any favours unless you understand the fundamentals of probability theory. And it’s not so much about learning and grasping theory, although it’s important. It’s equally as much about inspiration.The more you read about and understand probability theory, the more imaginative you’ll become with your betting models. You’ll come up with all sorts of interesting and creative things to do with the numbers, taking angles you hadn’t even considered.

Sure you can probably get by developing a predictive model with basic maths. Maybe. But it’s not going to be the cunning bookie killing machine that you’ve always imagined having at your disposal.

Know How To Manipulate A Spreadsheet

A successful bettor once told us his first betting model was developed using graph paper. Yeah, that’s right: graph paper. It was clumsy. It was inefficient. But it’s all he knew. Then after he discovered spreadsheets, and from there databases and from there some very basic Php programming. No you don’t have to be a programming wiz to build a sports betting model. Most successful bettors are not. But the more you do know about spreadsheets and the like, the better off you will be and the more powerful your testing and analysis will be. And perhaps most of all, the more efficiently you will make use of your time.

So at the very least, know how to throw a spreadsheet around and learn how to make the data dance. And from there, work your way into building databases and writing queries. Trust us. You’ll be glad you did.

Know The Sport And Its Betting Markets

If you’re starting to develop your first betting model or system, we would recommend you begin with not only a sport you know well, but a league you know well. And by knowing well, we mean like a ruthless expert. If you don’t understand the fundamentals of the sport or league, it’s very difficult to know where to begin in your analysis and very difficult to know how to assess the performance of the sport’s participants. And by understanding the fundamentals we also mean have a clear and comfortable understanding of the betting markets for that sport. The markets that you are going to attack is at the very core of your betting model’s identity. Is that market head to head betting? Is it line betting or handicap?

In other words, the manner in which you decide to assess a team’s performance is going to be determined by the betting market you want to find value in. So know the sport’s betting markets as well as you know the sport itself.

You must also keep in mind bookmaker limits and market liquidity. The amount of money you can get down on a particular league or bet type is something to consider before spending hours building your betting model. Sure, you might make a killer model for Polish 2nd Division football. But are you going to be able to bet at a rate that makes the time spent on the model worthwhile?

Personally we would stay away from the more obscure leagues, at least in developing your first model. For one thing, mainstream bookmakers are far more sensitive to successful betting in these sorts of leagues. They will move quickly to restrict your betting if they feel you’ve got an edge in a league that they would readily admit to not knowing as well as they should. Plus bet limits in these leagues usually begin pretty low anyway. And even if you move your action to a betting exchange like Betfair, you’re going to have trouble getting your money matched in the lower leagues.

So aim high. Shoot for the big time. Build a betting model that will give you options and one that will provide for you long-term.

Data Data Data

Your model is going to need data. At the very least that means final scores, but ideally it means meaty in-depth stats that you can breakdown and incorporate into an algorithm. And most of all – historical odds for which to test your model on. Where can you get the data you need in the format you desire? Is it readily available in spreadsheet form? Well, that can be the tough part. There are plenty of sources on the net for statistical data for a wide number of leagues. Some are free. Some will cost you a pretty penny. It’s worth spending hours trawling the web for sources. You’ll often find the best sources in places you’d never expect, tucked away in the far reaches of the internet.

But you won’t always find exactly what you are after, especially if you’re looking to make a betting model for more obscure sports or leagues. So there is always the option of doing your own data entry, even if it’s to augment a data source from another provider. Personally, we’d advise this only as a last resort. Because to be perfectly honest – data entry sucks. We would also recommend becoming familiar with data scraping software. This software will allow you to scrape data from websites directly into spreadsheet format. Learning how to do this (and it’s fairly simple these days with the great range of intuitive software available) will save you hours if not days or weeks in data collection.

But if you are going to head down the path of manual data entry and begin your own data source from scratch, just remember to repeat this mantra: “You only have to do it once. You only have to do it once.” It helps.

Oh, and remember to click ‘Save’ often. (The horror!)

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